Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 031733
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE PERIOD. BROAD
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD HUDSONS BAY
WITH TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE A
GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO TROUGH AS
SYSTEMS TRANSLATE EASTWARD.

INITIALLY MORE LIKELY CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH
OF THE CWA BUT PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY BE ON EASTERN EDGE
OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AS SHORT WAVES TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE AREA. SOMEWHAT
BETTER POPS FOR THE AREA COME INTO PLAY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE FLATTENS WITH TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIP THAT MAY OCCUR
WILL HAVE IMPACT ON DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION DURING THE PERIOD WITH LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW DEVELOPING AS NORTHERN STREAM DROPS INTO THE NORTH
HALF OF THE NATION AND UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORCED SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BY
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO WITH CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. OVERRUNNING
850MB FLOW WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECOND FRONT COMING IN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. BROAD BRUSH POPS FOR THIS LATE PART OF THE
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES
COOL TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AROUND 12Z THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME VCSH AND VCTS NEAR
KOFK. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT ADDED ANY LATE PERIOD MENTION
IN THE KOFK TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEYER


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