Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 201734
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A LARGE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE ALLOWING TEMPS TO RADIATE OUT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.

WITH A COLD START TO THE DAY AND LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES TO
THE MID 30S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSES
EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN ACROSS THE CWA BUT PREVIOUS MENTIONED
CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DIMINISHED. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION WE HAD EARLIER. 850MB WARMS AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES TOWARD
THE AREA. THIS COULD CAUSE A BIT OF DRIZZLE IN OUR VERY FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS FORCING INCREASES AS
THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE A FZRA/RA MIX. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER NARROW THAT DOWN WITH THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS. IN ANY CASE...QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH IMPACT AT THIS POINT IF WE DO GET A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF IT...THETA-E RICH AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
LOOK WARM ENOUGH BY THIS POINT TO WHERE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UPON THE EXIT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
A RETURN TO COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SOMEWHAT
OUT OF PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN ON BRINGING A SWATH OF SNOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WIND SPEEDS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DROP INTO THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT OFK AND OMA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE LNK
TERMINAL.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LLWS BECOMING AN ISSUE AT OFK BY THE EARLY
HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING.  LLWS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT OMA
AND LNK AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION UNTIL FURTHER
ANALYSIS CAN BE MADE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...KG/DEE



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