Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 170451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Increased the start time of the dense fog advisory near Columbus
where dense fog is already in place. Made no other changes to the
advisory, but am beginning to question whether any dense fog can
develop in southwest IA where winds may remain strong enough to
keep things mixed up. Will let the night shift evaluate all
guidance, but they may be able to trim some counties from the
advisory, and likely extend it a couple more hours.

UPDATE Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

No changes to ongoing forecast, other than minor tweaks to very
short term temps and clouds. Most recent model guidance from
HRRR/RAP/LAV/MAV is suggesting that fog may not be as dense or as
widespread as last night. Experimental HRRR an 18z Nam still
support widespread dense fog, as does the 15z SREF. Thus not as
confident in the placement of the dense fog overnight, and whether
it will be as widespread as the previous night.


.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Large scale pattern will be relatively progressing over the next
several days starting off with a deep longwave trof currently
situated off the west coast evolving into a potent
shortwave/vort max eventually entering the cntrl plains sometime
late Tuesday night. Synoptic forcing increases substantially with
the approach of this system via combination of DPVA/strong
700-500MB ageostrophic lift.

For the most part...models agree pcpn development possible Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning just west of the CWA where steep mid lyr
lapse rates will be most prevalent. However...limiting factor will
be no appreciable isentropic moisture advection to tap into. Going
fcst already has low-end chance POPs in place which still look like
the best fit.

Conditions will be somewhat favorable for record or near record
max temps at OMA/84 and LNK/85 Monday aftn as the region will
fall under the influence of waa sector associated with sfc low
lifting from the cntrl high plains into the Dakotas. Otherwise...a
relatively weak Canadian air mass invading the region will
translate to near normal temps Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

With both the GFS and ECM not showing any major systems rolling
through the central plains or significant thermal advection heading
into next weekend...expect dry conditions to prevail along with near
normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR conditions at all TAF sites, but fog developing again tonight,
with IFR/LIFR conditions possible, then back to VFR by 15-17z. A
wind shift will also approach KOFK by 16-20z.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for NEZ015-018-031>034-

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for NEZ042-043-050-065-

IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056-069-



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