Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 241720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Pocket of warm temperatures at 850mb remains over the region this
morning with strong southerly low-level jet. We should be able to
mix out fairly well after sunrise with highs approaching the mid
to upper 70s for most locations. A surface cold front over the
Dakotas continues to separate a very chilly airmass to our north
from the very mild airmass that remains over us. A weak but
progressive upper level trough will continue to move northeast
across the Northern Plains today which will allow the cold front
over the Dakotas to drop through the forecast area tonight. A few
of the CAM`s do develop some light QPF across northeast Nebraska
ahead of the boundary this morning, but point forecast soundings
indicate a very dry environment and thus may see a sprinkle or
two but no accumulating pcpn is anticipated.

A better chance of showers moves into the area early Tuesday morning
and becomes likely during the day Tuesday and Tuesday night as
the boundary stalls ahead of a strengthening upper shortwave. This
boundary begins to become more active and push southeast into
Kansas and Missouri with overrunning pattern developing north of
the front as the strengthening upper trough approaches the Central
Plains. Parts of northeast Nebraska could see a mix of rain and
snow for a time late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before

Temperatures will be sharply colder behind the front Tuesday with
blustery northwest winds gusting over 25 mph. High temperatures
across northeast Nebraska/west central Iowa will top out in the
upper 40s. Clouds and wind should inhibit any frost formation on
Wednesday morning. We will be mentioning patchy frost for
Thursday morning with pockets of freezing or slightly below
freezing temperatures across northeast Nebraska with both
diminishing winds and clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Pattern is forecast to remain cool and wet through the weekend as a
series of upper troughs track across the Central Plains. Most
significant system will impact much of the region over the weekend
with widespread showers. There does remain the potential for snow
associated with this system but track and speed of the system are
likely to change over the next several model runs. Models do agree
on painting a fairly stout stripe of QPF over the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Gusty south winds are expected through the afternoon at all 3
sites. Winds will diminish some this evening and switch to the
northwest at KOFK during the evening as a front moves through.
This front will move through KOMA/KLNK on Tuesday morning with
winds becoming northeast. Only high clouds are expected today,
with a mid-level AC deck developing tonight at all 3 sites. We
will likely seem MVFR cigs and some rain move into KOFK to end the
period on Tuesday morning.





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