Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271727
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. BASED ON
HRRR/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME...AND TWEAKED FOR
TIME OF DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER DUE TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE NEXT TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST...MOVES
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT DOESN`T MOVE IN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL HAVE
POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND THEN
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE NOW FLIPPING
WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER MOVING THE PRECIP OUT...WITH THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO PRECIP WELL INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PRECIP OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.
COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. WENT DRY ON FRIDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PESKY
UPPER LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER AFTER 12Z. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES AT KOFK AND KLNK. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE HAVE ONLY
ADDED VCSH AT THOSE TWO TAF SITES FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-24KT RANGE. WINDS
WILL WILL REMAIN SOUTH SOUTHEAST BUT WILL DROP OFF UNDER 10KTS
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MEYER



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