Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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140
FXUS63 KOAX 261735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS EXTEND OF SEVERE WX THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 50 METER HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF
IT OFF 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD OFF OF THE GULF AS +15C 850MB DEWPOINTS AT 00Z
WERE ADVECTING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
+10C AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SFC
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AND ALONG NOSE OF LLVL JET. ISOLATED HAIL IS MAIN HAZARD THIS
MORNING WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST RECENT CAM`S PUSH
THIS ACTIVITY EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH 15Z. MORNING CONVECTION WILL
PLACE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AND WILL MUDDY UP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. CAM`S PLACE
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 18Z WITH EWD
EXTENDING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD HINDER NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT. IF WARM SECTOR CAN MANAGE TO LIFT INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEB...FEEL THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TORNADIC
THREAT GIVEN CURVED HODOGRAPHS ONCE CAP ERODES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUT THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IN ALL THIS IS: HOW FAR NORTH THE
WARM FRONT CAN ADVANCE GIVEN MORNING OUTFLOW. ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF ROTATING GIVEN STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PW`S 225% OF NORMAL. THE AREA MOST AT
RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND THIS AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED IN THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAIN.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS MESSY AND
DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SOME RISK FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BUT
FORECAST IS NOT REAL CLEAR CUT.

UPPER LOW PULLS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO COLORADO FRIDAY SPREADING PCPN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. EXACT TRACK LOW HAS
YET TO BE RESOLVED BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. COOLER AIR DROPS IN BEHIND THIS
WEEKEND LOW BUT 850MB TEMPS DO REMAIN POSITIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN KANSAS OR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MOVE
NORTH. THOSE STORMS WILL LIKELY HIGH KLNK AND KOMA BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z...WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
IFR CIG/VSBY IN SHOWERS/THUNDER. KOFK WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
IFR SHOWERS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH KLNK AND KOMA SEEING
MVFR CIGS BUT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN



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