Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 201816
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
116 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Quiet and cooler weather today with northeasterly surface flow
with zonal flow aloft. Highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s, still
well above normal on this first day of Spring, but definitely not
as warm/hot as yesterday.

A weak wave moves out of the northern Rockies tonight and brings a
chance of rain and snow to areas north of I80, which then moves
through the forecast area on Tuesday. Thermal profiles are cool
enough aloft to allow for some minor snow accumulations in
northeast NE, generally 1/2 inch or less, with precip ending
Tuesday afternoon.

Most of Tuesday night would be dry, but precip chances again begin
to increase across central NE, and with small chances after
midnight across a portion of eastern NE by daybreak Wednesday.
Thermal profiles again suggest precip chances would start off as a
rain/snow mix, then all rain as daytime temps warm on Wednesday,
with precip threat ending Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Precip chances significantly increase through the first half of
the extended period as a deepening upper trough moves through the
Rockies. Showers become likely Thursday as the initial surge of
height falls develops across the Plains as the closed upper low
moves onto the High Plains through daybreak Friday. Models are in
much better agreement today, thus forecast confidence beginning to
increase. Instability begins to develop by Thursday night and
Friday with a high probability of precipitation as a cold
front/inverted begins to move through the region. Colder air
begins to move into the region on the back side of the surface
low, which could change the rain over to snow in northeast NE
Friday night. Still several days away, but the best chance for
accumulating snow appears to be west and north of the forecast
area. Still a chance of rain on Saturday on the back edge of the
system, but by then, models are not in agreement on timing or
synoptic evolution of the low, thus forecast confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through most of the
period as high pressure builds into the lower Missouri Valley.
KOFK will see some MVFR cigs after 12Z with periods of MVFR vsbys
in rain and snow as weak short wave moves across northern Nebraska.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Fobert



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