Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 132103
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
303 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Wind advisory currently in effect, but should be able to cancel a
few counties early with speeds below advisory levels in most areas.

Otherwise, there were a few flurries in southeast ND and
northeast Sd in a moist cyclonic flow around the strong low
pressure system near Lake Michigan. ESRL HRRR/HRRR/RAP/Highres
ARW/NMM and Nam models all suggest that these might hold together
and possibly affect northwest/west central IA later this evening
and overnight. Will let the evening shift monitor and add later on
if necessary.

Focus shifting to the next Alberta Clipper that will move down the
Missouri River valley Thursday. Models have slowed down the
arrival of precip in northeast NE by a few hours, and have
adjusted grids accordingly. This could start as snow chances, but
becomes a rain/snow mix as temps warm into the upper 30s to lower
40s, which would significantly limit accumulations. Light snow or
flurries may linger Thursday evening before diminishing by
midnight. Snowfall amounts less than 1/2" at any given location.

Warming continues Friday and Saturday with west southwest surface
flow ahead of the next cold front. Readings both days well above
normal in the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Cooler air behind the cold front combined with approaching troughs
from both the north and south could bring snow and rain chances
to the area Saturday night into early Sunday. Although the forecast
is tilted toward the wetter ECWMF during this time, while the GFS
remains dry. Temperatures remain well above normal in the 40s
through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Continued VFR and windy conditions expected throughout the
afternoon with a large area of clouds advecting in from the
north. A few MVFR cigs are possible at KOFK and KOMA through the
overnight with decreasing winds at all sites. Lower ceilings are
expected to spread southeast late in the TAF period ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-051>053-067-068-090>093.

IA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Kern



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