Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 272010
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. CUT OFF LOW OVER
IOWA WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY THEN FINALLY MOVE EAST. A DECENT TROUGH
AT 500 MB IS/WAS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A CLOSED LOW WAS
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 12Z. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ESTIMATED
AT UP TO 100 METERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WINDS OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WERE DEPICTED AT 300 MB TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE FEATURE. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP
TRANSPORT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE
FROM WAYNE TO BEATRICE. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAD LOW POPS
IN FOR LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD
BASED ON 12Z NAM...12Z HIRES ARW AND MOST RECENT HRRR. LINGERED
SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY MORNING
INTO MID AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

MOST OF THE MODELS...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST...ARE DRY FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS DID GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW DID NOT MENTION ANY
PCPN IN THESE PERIODS. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
OR AROUND 60 SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS MTHE WET PATTERN GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY...A COLD TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FINALLY TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BRING
AN OVERALL DRIER BUT COOL PATTERN FOR THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN
THAT FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...SO CAN NOT SAY NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE TOTALLY DRY...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT TO SAY IT WILL BE COOL
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S).
ONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
THAT WILL BE KICKING OUT ACROSS WYOMING. CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE
TO CENTRAL ND BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
1.50 INCHES SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF DECENT
DYNAMICS TO GENERATE PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD GENERALLY
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MOVES INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FINALLY TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...
WHICH SHOULD BRING A GENERALLY DRIER BUT COOL PATTERN FOR THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THAT FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...
SO CAN NOT SAY NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE TOTALLY DRY...BUT CAN SAY
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT WILL BE COOL (HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S).

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PESKY
UPPER LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER AFTER 12Z. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES AT KOFK AND KLNK. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE HAVE ONLY
ADDED VCSH AT THOSE TWO TAF SITES FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-24KT RANGE. WINDS
WILL WILL REMAIN SOUTH SOUTHEAST BUT WILL DROP OFF UNDER 10KTS
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER


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