Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 232006
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TONIGHT

REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.

COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING TSRA/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LIFTING THRU
KS AND INTO S-CNTRL NEB. EXPECT THE PCPN ACTIVITY TO REACH ERN NEB
LATE THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AT ALL TAF SITES.
AT THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU ABOUT 12Z SUN MORNING...THEN
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TWD 18Z SUN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE


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