Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 130554
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1154 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

With surface high pressure over the area, temperatures dropped
like a rock and several locations were at or below the forecast
lows. Per GOES 16 satellite imagery...fog is forming in river
valleys and dense fog is beginning to form over parts of
Iowa/Missouri/Kansas. Have updated to expand fog and include dense
fog for parts of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa later
tonight and Monday morning. A dense fog advisory may be needed
later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

The forecast area sits in between a mid-level shortwave trough to
our east and weak mid-level ridging to our west. At the surface,
a high pressure ridge continues to slide southeast over the area
which has led to sunny skies and fairly light winds. Southerly
low-level return flow will quickly increase tonight and
especially into early Monday. Point forecast soundings show
saturated low levels with potential for fog development by 09-12Z
Mon across much of our southern CWA. Will be monitoring fog
development closely through the overnight as some of the fog could
potentially be dense in areas, especially south of I-80. Clouds
will increase by Monday afternoon in continued warm/moist low-
level warm air advection pattern. Despite cloud cover, highs by
Tuesday should reach into the upper 50s. A mid- level shortwave
will approach the area by late Tuesday night when we have a small
chance for showers in our far southeastern counties which will
mostly be driven by low-level warm air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for much of the week
ahead of our next upper-level trough which should begin to affect
the area Friday. Warm-air advection regime could induce light pcpn
ahead of the system before a strong cold front behind the system
brings additional pcpn chances into early Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Fog beginning to spread northward across Kansas and Missouri and
this should be followed by stratus expanding across the TAF
sites. Some patchy fog expected to increase 11-13Z at KOMA and
KLNK. MVFR/IFR/LIFR visibilities as conditions deteriorate...then
improve as the stratus expands with MVFR/IFR cigs in moist
southwest flow aloft. The winds at KOFK may be enough so that they
should not see the low visibilities. Would not be surprised to
see a little light rain with the warm advection pattern. A couple
of the models are aggressive with holding on to the low level
moisture into Monday night. Light and variable winds become
southeast...then increase to 10-20kts Monday after 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Zapotocny
SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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