Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 181116
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AN OVERALL CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN HOW
POOR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION. AS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
MORNING...WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN RESPONSE AND EVEN BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING AND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT
BE DISCOUNTED. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

RISING HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH SOME
AREAS PUSHING THE LOW 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

NO REAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. WE DO HAVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WED
NIGHT/THURS/FRIDAY AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT MCS/S MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND POSSIBLY SKIRT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA. OTHERWISE...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND LINGER
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW/SCT CU COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG A WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
TAF SITES BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z
TUE. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT KOFK LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN AT KOMA/KLNK BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISO TSRA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...


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