Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 040834
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TODAY

RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM
SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KLNK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN



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