Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 251108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
608 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will continue to
spread over portions of the forecast area this morning ahead of an
approaching upper-level shortwave trough over central Wyoming. A
surface cold front has pushed through a majority of the forecast
area this morning and is expected to extend just to our southeast
across northeast Kansas and southwest Iowa through a good portion
of the day as surface low pressure along the Kansas/Oklahoma
border works its way slowly northeast along the front. Additional
widespread showers are expected through the day ahead of the upper
wave as it pushes east across South Dakota. In addition, strong
cold air advection will continue today with highs in our northern
counties only rising a few degrees with highs forecast in the mid
to upper 40s. Precipitation should end from northwest to
southeast Wednesday as the upper-level trough axis finally shifts
east of the area. A few snowflakes could mix in with the rain
along the South Dakota border early Wednesday morning but no
accumulation is anticipated.

Have continued mention of patchy frost in our northern counties
Thursday morning with lows in the low 30s. Will continue to
monitor for any headlines that may be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Dry conditions are expected Thursday before a series of upper
troughs swing through the region through the weekend. Significant
differences continue with the medium range models with the 00z GFS
giving the area significant precipitation Friday while the 00z
ECMWF remains fairly light with its QPF by keeping the strongest
forcing to our south.

Heading into the weekend, the pattern will remain cool as a
deepening mid/upper level trough digs across the Four Corners
region and quickly moves into eastern Nebraska by Sunday.
Continued precipitation is expected with this system with cold air
working south. Some mix with light snow is possible before the
system exits to the east on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Cooler air continues to move into the area behind a cold front.
Showers so far have been high based, spotty and light. These
should increase in coverage, especially for KOFK. IFR ceilings
covered much of South Dakota, and into parts of northern Nebraska.
Combination of cooler air moving in, showers and increasing low
level moisture should cause lower end MVFR to IFR ceilings to
develop. Winds should remain mostly from the north but could vary
from northwest to northeast.




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