Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 151733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

The main forecast concerns today are in regards to low clouds,
drizzle and the affect on temperatures. Will also need to look at
potential for low clouds and fog tonight into Sunday.

The following features were noted on the 00Z upper air charts from
last evening. At 300 mb...winds in excess of 100 knots extended
from Oregon up into Saskatchewan. At 500 mb...modest southwest
flow was in place from the eastern Pacific through the Northern
Plains. 12 hour height falls were strongest (around 100 meters)
near the Alberta/Saskatchewan border, but also extended down into
the Central Rockies. Thermal ridge at 700 mb and 850 mb stretched
from Sonora Mexico up into western Nebraska and the Dakotas. The
highest moisture at 850 mb extended from the Gulf Coast up into
Missouri. Surface analysis at 08Z showed modest southerly flow in
place across our local area, ahead of a cold front that will push
in from the northwest later today. That front is expected to be
from northwest Iowa into south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Low clouds will be tough to mix out ahead of this front much of
the day. Lowered highs from previous forecast a little, mainly in
the southeast half to two thirds of the area. Kept mention of
drizzle into early afternoon, then there may be a few showers in
parts of southwest Iowa late afternoon and early evening. There
may even be a few areas that received measurable precipitation
with the drizzle/light rain today.

Clouds may break up a bit early tonight, then with light winds
there will probably be low clouds and/or fog. This is suggested by
both the NAM and experimental HRRR. Thinking for Sunday is that
increasing southerly flow will provide enough mixing to allow
highs to reach the lower 80s in parts of southeast Nebraska, with
mid and upper 70s farther north. Monday looks warm and much of the
MOS guidance suggests a very warm day. For now, will remain fairly
optimistic with highs in the lower/mid 80s south, and upper 70s/
lower 80s north. Will not mention any precipitation for Monday,
but may need to in later forecasts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Showers appear possible Monday night, but just north of our area.
A push of cooler air will move across the area Monday night, and
then a cooling trend should continue through the later part of the
week. Have included some low POPs at times for parts of the area
from Wednesday through Friday, although confidence is fairly low.
The GFS/ECMWF/GEM are in decent agreement through mid week, then
diverge somewhat on the details of the 500 mb trough over the
central part of the United States late in the week. The 00z GFS
solution of a closed low seems a bit odd, so gave that model less
weight than the GFS Ensemble and ECMWF for rain chances in our


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Latest sfc obs this aftn showing MVFR conditions pretty much
encompassing ern Neb. However...vsbl satl imagery was revealing a
few breaks from the llvl cigs over the region. And at this
point...trends indicate KOFK and KLNK should be going VFR within
the next couple hours. Expect deteriorating conditions though to
return late this evening with both terminals falling into the
MVFR/IFR range through most of tonight. As for KOMA...model
guidance is suggesting NIL improvement with MVFR/IFR conditions
pretty much prevailing through the fcst pd.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Miller
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