Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 201110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

...It`s Summer and We Have a HEAT WAVE...

Forecast concerns over the next several days will be the Excessive
Heat and humidity, heat headlines, monsoonal moisture and chances
for thunderstorms.

Will maintain Excessive Heat Warning today through Friday and
future shifts can decide if the headline is extended. Our current
forecasts has highest heat index values from 102 to 112 through
Friday and 98 to 106 on Saturday. High temperatures will range
from 91 to 101 each day through Saturday. Surface dewpoints should
mostly range from the lower 70s to spots in the upper 70s and even
some of our high spots could have 80 with soil/crops in full
evapotranspiration mode.

Sometimes people wonder while all the fuss. It has been a hot
summer so the top 12 for overall temperature for Omaha
for heat.  Heat waves can be deadly, however heat related deaths
are preventable. It helps to stay hydrated...and limit strenuous
outdoor activities and you can plan ahead.

Similar to Monday and Tuesday...there is always a degree of
uncertainty with convective activity...outflows and cloudiness
can always affect the high temperatures.

Typically when a large area of high pressure is over the area, the
heat will shut down the local thunderstorm activity. The area of
the h5 high is centered over Kansas and Oklahoma and water vapor
satellite imagery continues to show a fetch of mid level monsoonal
moisture into the Plains. This moisture plume does not push south
of the forecast area until Sunday...thus the prolonged period of
heat and humidity will also bring some areas thunderstorm chances.

Thunderstorms developed overnight and the HRRR/RAP/NAM show these
should last into this morning and possibly early this afternoon
for parts of northeast Nebraska. Increasing south winds and very
warm temperatures are still on track for today for the rest of the
area. Isolated thunderstorms may develop Thursday in northeast
Nebraska with scattered thunderstorms spreading eastward from
western Nebraska Thursday ahead of a boundary that moves into
northeast Nebraska. Thunderstorm chances linger into Friday and
this could hold temperatures down. Forecast soundings show a lot
of elevated instability some strong to severe storms are possible.
Thursday night and Friday have inverted v shapes supportive of
wind damage. The ridge builds back with the front lifting north
Friday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase Friday night with
the 40kt jet across Kansas nosing into the forecast area. Still
hot for Saturday ahead of the approaching cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 350 AM
CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

A stronger shortwave in the Northern Plains pushes southward
Saturday night with scattered thunderstorms and eventually is
enough to scour out the deep moisture. This is shortlived as the
moisture returns for Monday and Tuesday and a boundary will be in
the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Generally look for VFR conditions through the period. There will
be some TSRA...but mainly north of KOFK this morning. Chances at
KOMA and KLNK look very low. All three sites could see some
restriction to vsby around sunrise today and again on Thursday.
Otherwise look for mainly mid and high level clouds through the


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT
     Friday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-

IA...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT
     Friday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.



SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Miller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.