Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 041801
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
101 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MORNING UPDATES MAINLY TO TWEAK HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS. THICKER CIRRUS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FARTHER EAST THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER AND
THE MIXING NOT A STRONG...THUS LOWER AND MID 80S WILL BE MORE
COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TODAY

RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM
SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z.
LATER TONIGHT...WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND IF IT MAKES IT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AT KOFK ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...SO THIS MAY BE ADDED.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 8-12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AT KOFK TONIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-16KTS AND
GUSTY LATER SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.