Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 122228
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

THE MAIN CONCERN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTS TO BE WITH THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE RECORDS LOWS...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING...WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE SFC HIGH CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT WE ARE
IN FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT YET OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. GOING
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
THERE...BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVRY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW ABOUT 36 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO KICK ON ON SAT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE MIXING TO 850
MB. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT WILL START TO WORK INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY ON SUN.
ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER POPS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUN
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS...AND AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO INCREASES LATE ON SUN AFTN...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WORKS THRU SD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA OR TWO. THIS CHANCE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT
AND WE WILL HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO MOV IN FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS/LOWS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY AND A BIT
WARMER AT THE END. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME CHC FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY 01-03Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES 10-13Z. COULD BE PATCHY FROST AT KLNK/KOFK LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE
TO 13 TO 15 KNOTS BY 15-16Z...AND COULD SEE GUSTS AT KOFK UP TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.