Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 280442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN



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