Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 230050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
750 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Large upper level low centered over southwestern Ontario is forecast
to drop south/southwest over the next couple days with a few
embedded shortwaves moving through the flow around the low. The
first one had moved through the region this morning producing
scattered showers across our far southeastern counties. The second
impulse continues to drop southeast across western South
Dakota/Nebraska this afternoon allowing a surface cold front to push
southeast. Scattered convection is likely to continue to develop
along this boundary through peak heating with increasing mid-level
lapse rates associated with the upper impulse. Overall severe threat
looks minimal with limited moisture leading to weaker instability,
but some strong winds and marginally severe hail are possible.
This activity will continue to push southeast through the early
evening hours but showers main persist through the overnight
across our far southeastern counties.

A break in pcpn is likely through much of Tuesday morning however
with the heating of the day, we think occasional showers will pop up
and rotate southeast within the northwesterly flow around the big
upper low. These look to be mostly diurnally driven and should
diminish after sunset.

Wednesday looks dry! High pressure will linger overhead through much
of the day but return flow will set up overnight into Thursday

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A large upper low over southwestern Canada will slide east along the
International border and send embedded shortwave troughs into the
region beginning Thursday when we will have our next chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, off and on chances of
precipitation remains through the weekend as continued mid-level
impulses take aim at the region around the large upper low slowly
sliding east across southern Canada.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 744 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Band of showers and thunderstorms in advance of a slow moving cold
front were located in the vicinity of KOMA and KLNK at the start
of the period. Convection should end at both sites by 02Z with VFR
conditions expected thereafter. Additional showers are possible
across eastern Nebraska after 15Z Tuesday as cold pool associated
with the upper low over western Iowa contributes to mid level




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