000
FXUS63 KOAX 272219
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
415 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY
DAYBREAK. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM
DIFFERS BY 21 DEGREES AT OMAHA TOMORROW. THE NAM BRINGS IN A SLUG OF
LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW WHICH LOOKS SUSPECT AND THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED.
WE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORDS WEDNESDAY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST JUST BEHIND THIS FIRST
WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT THIS
SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST
AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INITIALLY WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM SATURDAY...THEN IN OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM. THIS COULD BEGIN AS SNOW EVENT IN OUR SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RA/SN EVENT DURING THE DAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DROPS DOWN...WE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A RIVER JAM APPROXIMATELY 1.4 MILES LONG REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE
PLATTE RIVER SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92...ROUGHLY BETWEEN Q AND F STREETS.
THE PAPIO NRD FLEW THE RIVER TODAY AND MENTIONED THE RIVER WAS ICE
FREE UPSTREAM TO THE HIGHWAY 77 BRIDGE. A WEAK RISE IN THE PLATTE
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM COLUMBUS DOWNSTREAM AS WATER FROM THE
LOUP POWER CANAL WAS DIVERTED INTO THE LOUP RIVER. THE JAM COULD
LAST A FEW DAYS SO THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE. AN ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOOD WARNING IN THE EVENT THE JAM
SHOULD BREAK FREE. THE WARNING AND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE
HYDROLOGY...KERN/PEARSON