Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 160521
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1121 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Very mild temperatures into the weekend is the main highlight of the
forecast.

Southwest winds and sunshine have helped temperatures warm into the
upper 40s to middle 50s for most of eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa this afternoon. Those temps are a good 10 to 15 degrees above
mid-February normals. And we are only going higher from here.

Upper air pattern today features a strong closed low rotating
northeast through New England, a developing trough off the West
Coast, and another closed low drifting east across the Baja. This
pattern will evolve into southwest flow aloft across the northern
half of the Central Plains by Friday as eastern low continues
northeast, western trough deepens, and Baja low lifts into the
Southern Plains. That low is forecast to then scoot east into the
southern Appalachians by late Saturday afternoon as western trough
closes off in the northern Baja area. The result for us will be
rising heights under ridging from the Gulf Coast into the Northern
Plains.

Nearer the surface, a general west to southwest flow regime is
expected to remain in place Thursday and Friday when 850
temperatures rise from the 2-7C range this afternoon to the lower
and middle teens both Thursday and Friday. Plenty of sunshine
will also prevail save for a few passing high clouds from time to
time. With the warming lower atmosphere combined with favorable
westerly wind component, expect highs to top 60 both Thursday and
Friday in most of our area, and we could see some 70s Friday
afternoon.

By Friday night and Saturday, a weak cold front is forecast to sweep
through the region, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures on
northwest then north winds. However 850 temps only drop back into
the 7C range for Saturday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Thus
highs will still be much warmer than normal, ranging from upper 50s
north to middle 60s south.

Record highs at Norfolk, Lincoln and Omaha are in the upper 60s to
lower 70s for the most part Thursday through Saturday. We may
approach those records on Friday when record highs are as follows:
Norfolk 72 in 1981, Lincoln 72 in 1913, and Omaha 69 in 1981.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

A continuation of above-normal temperatures through the middle of
next week, and a chance of rain showers from Sunday night through
Tuesday, are the primary forecast highlights in the longer term
period.

The evolution of a closed low over the northern Baja drifting into
the Southern Plains, and associated trough moving across the
Northern Plains will be the main driving forces for our potential
rain early next week. Models are generally similar in taking closed
low across northern Mexico into the northern Gulf by Wednesday.
Meanwhile mid level trough is forecast to sweep through the northern
Rockies and into the Northern Plains early next week. There are some
timing and strength differences between longer range models, but the
resultant forecast will not change much on the whole, perhaps
speeding up or delaying main precipitation by 6 or 12 hours.

Friday night/Saturday cold front is forecast to lift back north on
Sunday, bringing a return to southerly flow in our area. 850 temps
again bump up into the lower teens, suggesting highs once again will
top 60. However increasing afternoon clouds may temper warming
somewhat.

Moisture return ramps up significantly Sunday night as Gulf opens up
ahead of Baja low and western trough. GFS suggests 50s surface
dewpoints should enter our area with 9C 850 dewpoints. Forecast
soundings show some hints of instability, and lifted indices
computed from 850mb go negative. Thus will increase rain shower
chances with some mention of thunder possible. While GFS shows this
will be the main show as far as precipitation goes, will maintain at
least small precip chances into Tuesday as per timing differences
between ECMWF/Canadian/GFS, .

Otherwise we should see a slight decrease in temps into mid week as
heights are gradually suppressed behind this system. However we are
still looking at highs in the 50s if not lower 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

LLWS at all TAF sites, with winds around 2000 feet from around
230-260 degrees at 35-40 knots. That should end at KOFK by 07-08z,
and at KLNK/KOMA by 11-12z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...DeWald



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