000
FXUS63 KOAX 171119
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE BNDRY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN
MO TO SFC LOW CENTERED IN NERN IA. ALSO...EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD
WAS ACCOMPANYING CAA FILTERING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE RAPID DISSIPATION BY LATE MORNING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM PDS IS POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ADVERTISE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NRN
PLAINS FRI NIGHT WILL INDUCE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. BY 12Z
SAT...WELL ESTABLISHED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE AT THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. MODELS INDICATE BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
FLOW ALOFT TURNING NEAR ZONAL. MATTER OF FACT...NAM/GFS INDICATE THE
BNDRY HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE CWA ALL THE WAY UNTIL LATE SUN. WITH
PWS AROUND 1.3"...LIKELY THAT GENEROUS CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
REALIZED ALONG/SOUTH IF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN DURING THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN COMING NEXT WEEK. STRONG NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE WRN DAKOTAS WED
MORNING WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS.
MOIST WAA ENSUES THEN LEADING UP TO INTENSE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU
THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN...GENEROUS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
IN PLACE AT TIME OF COLD FROPA. APPEARS THAT DEEP LYR SHEAR/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WED EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES WILL SCATTER AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH TODAY WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE BRISK
NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD