000
FXUS63 KOAX 131728
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS MORNING...PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE MAIN FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

THREE MAIN JETSTREAKS WERE NOTED ON 300 MB ANALYSIS LAST EVENING.
ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...ONE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND A THIRD
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE. TWO AREAS OF 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS
WERE NOTED AT 500 MB. ONE WAS IN SOUTHERN IDAHO...AROUND AN 80
METER MAX...AND ANOTHER OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO... WITH MAX
AROUND 50 METERS. AT 700 MB...A MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS NOTED
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BACK TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 850 MB
ANALYSIS SHOWED AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM -8 C AT KGGW TO 24 AT KDDC. A FAIRLY NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE AT 850 MB EXTENDED FROM TEXAS UP INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF PCPN AS LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASES. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN
INCH OR MORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS
MORNING...THEN THESE WILL SLOWLY DROP AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE AND
THE AIRMASS COOLS. EXPECT SOME BANDING OF PCPN AS A COUPLE OF
AREAS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS ARE EXPECTED. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY 7 PM MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM SEWARD TO FREMONT AND ONAWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGHT ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARED MARGINAL AND WILL PASS THINKING ON TO NEXT SHIFT. THEY
CAN ISSUE ONE IF NEEDED.

AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...SNOW SHOULD SPREAD FARTHER
TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH INTO THE
OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS METRO...BUT HIGHS AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. LIFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT
KEPT PCPN CHANCES GOING UNTIL AROUND 12Z IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FCST AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND CONTINUED
NORTH WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE 10-15 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST BY WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A
FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND PCPN DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOLUTIONS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT AFTER THAT AND CONFIDENCE DROPS. THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PCPN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BUT THOUGHT TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S...MAINLY
50S FRIDAY AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER SERN NEBR AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED SE OF
KLNK/KOMA BY 2 OR 3 PM CDT. OTHERWISE STRONG NNE SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. COLDER AIR
SPREADING SE INTO ERN NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY TURN RAIN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO NERN NEBR...INCLUDING KOFK...WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
DUE TO ONGOING INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE
COULD ALSO BE SLEET MIXED IN WITH SOME OF THE PRECIP THROUGH MID
AFTN AS WELL. COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT KOMA AND KLNK THIS EVENING...IF NOT A PERIOD OF JUST
SNOW...BEFORE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE 2 SITES LATE THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. IN GENERAL IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
PRECIP BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ033-034-044-045-
     051>053-065>067-078-088-089.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-030>032-
     042-043-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK