Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 170820

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
320 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Generally quiet weather in the short term with temperatures the
main challenge. One weak wave is moving through the region early
this morning. This has brought a few sprinkles to north central
NE, and while the mid level moisture will move into the area this
morning, will keep the forecast dry. Breezy northwest winds behind
a cool front today, with slightly cooler temps than yesterday, but
still very mild with highs in the 60s. Drier dewpoints will allow
for minimum relative humidity to reach 25 to 35 percent this
afternoon, which will help to create very high grassland fire
danger over the northern 2/3 of the forecast area.

Winds diminish tonight with high pressure overhead. Lows should
drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s with mostly clear skies.

High pressure gradually shifts eastward on Saturday with southerly
winds returning. With somewhat poor mixing expected, highs will be
cooler with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Strong warming occurs again for Sunday with highs back into the
lower 70s to lower 80s. This will be a near record high at
Lincoln, with 81 forecast, just shy of the record of 82 set in
1921. Records are 85 at Omaha set in 1976, and 82 in Norfolk, set
in 1921, with the forecast several degrees below those values.
Very high fire danger will also exist in southeast Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Another front will be moving into the forecast area Sunday night,
although moisture is somewhat meager. Cooler temps are forecast
behind the front Monday. Moisture may eventually become deep
enough Monday afternoon for a chance of rain along the NE/SD
border, which then shifts into central NE for Monday night into
Tuesday, and may just brush a few counties in eastern NE with a
chance for rain or snow.

Models are in somewhat disagreement for Wednesday, with ECMWF
suggesting a weak wave moving off the high plains through a mean
ridge across the central US, while the GFS remains dry. Model
blends suggest a small chance of snow changing to rain that day.

A developing trough moving into the Rockies late in the long term
period should help significantly increase precip chances Wednesday
night into Thursday, although substantial differences in model
solutions develop by then, thus confidence begins to decrease.
Instability will also be returning by Thursday, thus have
introduced thunder mention as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A cold front
moving into the area at the start of the period will be east of
the TAF sites by 09Z with SCT to BKN mid and high clouds expected
through about 12Z. Northwest winds will increase after 15Z with
gusts to around 25 kts by 18Z.




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