Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 021748
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1148 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

...First of Three Weather Systems Will Impact the Area Saturday
afternoon/night...

Seasonable conditions prevail today with weak ridging across the
Plains as the area will be ahead of the next trough which continues
to take shape over the southwestern US. Highs today will be in the
mid 30s to mid 40s, just slightly below normal, but with dry
conditions.

Moisture will significantly increase through the day Saturday,
with rain chances increases by Saturday afternoon along and south
of I80. This should develop into a wintry mix by early Saturday
evening, although temps aloft are not especially cold, with even
some warm air advection noted in the models through the night.
Thus will have a rain/snow/freezing rain/drizzle mix for parts of
the area, especially on the tail end of the system 6-12z Sunday as
deep layer saturation shifts off to the east. QPF remains quite
light for this first event, generally 0.07" or less for southeast
NE and southwest Iowa. Precipitation will probably not even make
it to northeast NE at all.

Temps Sunday rebound nicely and warm back to the mid to upper 40s,
well above normal as zonal flow aloft again prevails across the
Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 209 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

...Two More Weather Systems Impact the Area, Then Turning Sharply
Colder...

The extended period will quite active with two weather systems
moving through, along with the first real arctic intrusion of air
resulting in significantly colder temperatures.

There should be one more mild and above normal day on Monday with
temperatures in the 40s. It`s your last real chance for easy outdoor
holiday decorating before the bottom falls out by mid week.

The cold front arrives Monday night. This will bring a chance of
rain changing to snow the area across the area, which could
linger into Tuesday, although the the ECMWF is definitely a
little more progressive, with the GFS/Canadian a little slower.
While it`s beyond our period for forecasting specific snowfall
amounts, this second system doesn`t look that significant right
now.

The sharply colder temperatures arrive Tuesday night, as the third
weather system to affect the area will begin to move out of the
Rockies. This will probably spread snow chances back into the area
by daybreak Wednesday, with snow chances continuing through
Wednesday evening, but ending by daybreak Thursday. Again, models
are a little off, with GFS now ending precip a little quicker than
the ECMWF. Temperatures Wednesday will only be in the teens and
20s. Combined with the northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph, it will
feel like single digits above and below zero. Welcome to winter!
Again, this is well beyond our snowfall forecasting ability, but
models suggest a few inches could be possible, with higher amounts
to our south. Of course, this could change as the models still
seem to be shifting a bit here or there with each run.

Wednesday night and Thursday remain quite cold. We trended
forecast temperatures down a bit from model blends, but it may
not be cold enough given a fresh snow pack. Lows in the single
digits Wednesday night and highs mostly in the teens on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Layer of low clouds has been pushing slowly south across the area
during the morning with most recent short range models having some
trouble with this feature. Have trended TAFs more toward this
current scenario at least through the afternoon with MVFR cigs at
all three sites. Ceilings becoming VFR again after 00Z but may
need to adjust depending on southward extent of the clouds by late
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Fobert


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