Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 210432
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1132 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Transitionary period as upper ridge over the western CONUS
flattens and strong near zonal flow develops across the northern
plains and upper Midwest.

Combination of embedded impulses in the upper flow and quasi
stationary surface boundary that hangs up across the area
Wednesday into Thursday will result in periodic convection during
that time, primarily during the late afternoon and overnight.
Strong upper trough digs into the upper Midwest late Thursday
night into Friday driving surface boundary and associated precip
south of the area with cooler temperatures coming in behind the
trough.

Some scattered convection is possible late tonight into early
Wednesday morning as warm advection zone lifts across the area.
Another chance of storms will develop Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a surface trough approaches eastern Nebraska then
stalls Wednesday night. The stalled boundary begins to push south
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as the upper trough drops
into the northern plains. Instability will increase along the
boundary from northeast into south central Nebraska Wednesday
afternoon with sufficient shear for the potential of some severe
thunderstorms into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Broad upper trough then becomes the dominant feature in the
extended period with cooler temperatures and some chance of
periodic showers and thunderstorms for the area in the northwest
flow. Upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to shift east
into the plains on Tuesday with warmer temperatures starting to
work back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF cycle, with clear to
scattered cirrus skies and unrestricted visibility. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the late
afternoon to early evening, especially affecting KOFK. Have
included a VCSH mention for now to hint at potential. Should a
shower/storm happen to pass directly over the site, it could
temporarily restrict visibility or lower ceilings. Guidance has
become inconsistent and sporadic regarding low-level wind shear
potential both tonight and Wednesday evening, so for now, have
left out mention. Light winds overnight will increase to around
10-15kt out of the south at all sites by late morning to midday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mayes



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