000
FXUS63 KOAX 131119
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST BY 16Z AND INCREASE TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 23 KNOTS...THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH 00-01Z.

DEWALD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WELL INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
REMAINS JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS PROGGED FOR TODAY WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
MIXING. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE WHICH RANGES
FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. WE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT TO LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH DRYING WESTERLY 850MB WINDS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS MORE TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE COMES THROUGH DRY AND WASHES OUT. WITH
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...SHOULD BE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WE MAY REACH RECORD WARMTH BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING OVER THE REGION AND
MIXING ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SEND READINGS INTO THE UPPER 90S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S COMBINED WITH GUSTY DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH DEWPOINTS
BUT WE MAY NEED TO HOIST A HEADLINE IF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT WITH
SUCH A LACK IN LLVL MOISTURE...WE MAY END UP WITH MORE VIRGA
SHOWERS THAN ANYTHING.

MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WED AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SOME
ACTIVITY DRIFT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY.

THE FRONT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING BACK NORTH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
OUT AHEAD OF MAIN TROF WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$