Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 261210
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
710 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

UPPER LOW WHICH HAD CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS UNDER
THE LOW CENTER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MO/IA TODAY...AND IF IT
DEVELOPS WOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. COULD ALSO BE SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR
LOCALLY DENSE LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING.

UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BELIEVE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE ON PRECIP FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD JUST SEE PATCHY CLOUDS INSTEAD...SIMILAR TO
WHAT`S UNDER THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. AGAIN...IF SHOWERS
DIURNALLY DEVELOP SATURDAY...THEY WOULD LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS
INDICATED BY SEVERAL MODEL SUITES...LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF A VERY
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS LOW...AND FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL PASS ON TO THE NEXT
SHIFT FOR MONITORING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
BY MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...THEN REGION WIDE TUESDAY
AS THE LEADING WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN PUSHING INTO
IA/MO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT
THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. A SECONDARY
PUSH COMES ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. BY
THEN...MODEL DISPARITIES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. THE GFS IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A SHARPER TROUGH
ALOFT...AND SWEEPS THE PRECIP OUT BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
IS MORE BROAD AND HOLDS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP UP JUST A
BIT. HAVE SETTLED ON MODEL BLENDS THAT FAR OUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS FOR FOG AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
15Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE AREA SHOULD PRODUCE PATCHES OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS FL050-070 AND
EVEN SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-SHOWERS.
PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION THOUGH. TONIGHT...SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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