Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 140529
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1129 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Temperatures will provide the main forecast challenges into Friday
but also have some concerns for gusty winds and a bit of light
snow or some snow flurries late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night.

Primary features noted from upper air charts at 12Z this morning
included the following. At 300 mb strong southwest winds stretched
from the southwest US into New England, a small area of strong
northeast winds (up to 95 knots) was over NV into parts of CA and
a much stronger jet streak of around 145 knots was over parts of
Alberta and Saskatchewan. A weak closed low at 500 mb was near the
CA coast and dropping to the southwest while a trough in the split
flow pattern at 500 mb extended from Hudson Bay back to the
western Dakotas. At 850 mb, a fairly warm and moisture airmass
was over TX, LA and OK. Surface analysis early this afternoon had
south/southwest winds in our area, with low pressure starting to
develop over eastern CO. 3 pm temperatures across eastern NE and
southwest IA were generally in the 30s to mid 40s, except for
Falls City which was 50.

Will mention some patchy fog tonight, but overall winds seem a bit
too strong for much more than shallow fog where winds may
decouple on a local scale. Lows should range from the upper teens
to upper 20s.

Warmer air should try to work into the area tonight and into
Wednesday. Both the GFS and NAM MOS guidance seemed too warm in
our area with the lingering snowcover. Stayed pretty close to our
previous forecast, which keeps highs mostly in the 40s Wednesday.
One exception is the small snow free area near the KS and MO
borders in far southeast NE where highs should reach into the 50s.
Highs will depend on just how deep the atmosphere can mix.

A cooler air should start to move into the area Wednesday night,
which will be followed by a stronger front on Thursday. It appears
that the coldest air will lag a bit, and will not reach our area
until Thursday night or early Friday morning. As with previous
forecasts, bumped winds up for Thursday night as the Arctic air
builds in. Pattern suggests flurries possible for some of the
area, but will not add to the forecast at this time. High
pressure at the surface starts to move off to the east Friday and
winds turn to the south, but the cold air will linger through the
day. Currently have highs Friday in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

All of the longer range models agree on the large scale pattern
starting Friday night, which is a general trough at 500 mb from
Hudson Bay down into northern Baja and a ridge centered over the
Caribbean. The flow remains somewhat progressive through the
early part of next week, with a tendency for a trough to be
favored from the northern Plains toward AZ and southern CA. Our
mid level flow remains west or northwest into the weekend, but
turns to the southwest early next week. The models begin to
diverge a bit with their details, but the pattern looks more
active for next week compared to this week.

Daytime temperatures Sunday should top out in the 40s at most
locations but it will turn colder air Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR conditions through the period. LLWS develops at KOFK by 14z
wind winds around 2000` from 270 degrees up to 45 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...DeWald



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