Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 231720
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. SNOW HAS BEEN ACCUMULATING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH A MIX FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SHOW BAND OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCING ALONG A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO
OMAHA THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 30S AT MID MORNING. WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT IT IS TYPICALLY MORE DIFFICULT
TO GET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE DAYTIME HOURS...SUGGEST THAT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS BAND TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS FROM MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD RUSH HOUR AND EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE SNOW MAY START
ACCUMULATING MORE. FOR NOW...ONLY MADE VERY VERY SMALL CHANGES TO
SNOW FORECAST AMOUNTS.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER IOWA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY
WILL TIGHTEN LATER TONIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT WITH
SOME GUSTS LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ONGOING PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A LARGE PCPN BAND
PIVOTING AROUND THE TOP AND BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN DEFORMATION
ZONE. PCPN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH SOME FLUCTUATION
THROUGH THE DAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A RA/SN MIX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONGER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INITIALLY.
AREA WEB CAMS ALREADY SHOW SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADS AND GRASSY
AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. DUE TO WET NATURE
OF SNOW...ONLY EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW.

SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS GIVES US
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF
THE PCPN ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR CONTINUITY BUT FEEL THESE MAY
ELIMINATED IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH. IN ANY
CASE...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE OVER
FOR THE TIME BEING AS COLD CANADIAN AIR SPILLS SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS
WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BAND
OF PCPN...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KLNK AND KOMA. THIS WILL LIKELY TURN TO MAINLY SNOW LATER
THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. VSBYS MAY
DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE IN THE PREVAILING SNOW. FOR KOFK...LOOK FOR
SCT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER



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