Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 281954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Cluster of storms in southeast NE appear to be firing on the
combination of daytime heating, but also within a very subtle
surface trough as indicated in an objective 19z MSAS analysis. A
couple of showers were also popping up further north along the
Platte river. Question is how far north these could develop yet
this afternoon and evening. CAMs are all offering differing
solutions, with High-res ARW/NMM perhaps the furthest north.
Believe there is still some northward shift yet this evening,
before they weaken and diminish by mid to late evening.

Remainder of the overnight may be dry, but may start to see slight
chance of showers/storms spread in from the south, but chances
remain slim. Should have a better chance of rain over the next
couple of days as the 500mb circulation now over the 4 corners
region fills and drifts northward into the mid Missouri River
valley. This, combined with increasing moisture in what appears to
be a weak tropical moisture connection that can be traced back
the western coast of Mexico. PW values increase from around 1.3"
to around 1.8" through time. Will not have continuous rain over
the next couple of days, but rain chances certainly are on the
upswing. Have rain chances in the 30-50% range through time,
although certain areas will occasionally see likely pops, which
can be fine tuned as we get a little closer.

A weak trough moving through the northern CONUS late in the period
should begin to shift rain chances south of the area by Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Current models suggest moisture may be south
of the area by Wednesday evening, so may begin adjusting pops
toward a drier regime by then.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Drier weather expected for Thursday and Friday with ridging
developing across the Plains. Rain chances return Saturday into
Sunday as the next trough moves onto the plains, with moisture
increasing again.


Issued at 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Deep-layer moisture will increase across the region through the
forecast period ahead of a mid-level low currently over the Four-
Corners Region. This will yield persistent high-level clouds,
boundary-layer-based cumulus through the peak of the diurnal
heating cycle and isolated showers and thunderstorms. Confidence
in convection affecting any TAF site remains too low to warrant
mention at this juncture. Increasing low-level relative humidity
and decreasing winds overnight could result in visibility
restrictions due to fog toward 12z Monday, especially at KOMA and
KOFK. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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