Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 281724
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A FEW MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE. DID THROW IN A PROB30 FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL
THREE SITES OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN



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