Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 222324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. VSBYS IN THE PCPN MAY DROP
DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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