Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 201748
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  FARTHER
OUT...POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM 1.4KFT TO 2.8KFT WITH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A 100KT+ H3 WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
WITH A SECOND JET STRETCHING FROM BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW.  AT 00Z...THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER LONGER WAVE TROF HEADING FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. OF NOTE ON THE H85 CHART WAS THAT THE COLD AIR WAS WELL TO
THE NORTH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WITH MILD AI

THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR FOR SOME TIME THIS AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR.R ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL CANADA WITH
ANOTHER AREA SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR ONL AND
HASTING WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING NORTH THROUGH MARYSVILLE. DENSE
FOG WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.  THIS
CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THAT
LOCATION AND A 25KT LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DENSE FOG AROUND ONL TO AURORA AND
PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES...YET OTHER LOCATIONS
ABOVE SIX MILES. THERE WAS SOME MIST OR FREEZING MIST WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 28 TO 30 IN WESTERN
IOWA AND AROUND 30 TO 32 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND FARTHER WEST WHERE IS HAD CLEARED OUT. THE CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE
WINDS RELAX. THE SHORTWAVE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DECREASE
THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.

THERE IS SOME LIFT WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DO INCLUDE FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT TROF DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
APPEARS STRONGER AND HAS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGER MONDAY...THUS LINGER THE CHANCES FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.  IT TAKES A WHILE FOR
THE TROF TO MOVE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ONCE AGAIN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL BE UNDER DREARY
GRAY BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE. LIFR AND IFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF KONL TO
JUST WEST OF KHSI AND KHJH. WEST OF THAT LINE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS YOU APPROACH THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY BIG IMPROVEMENTS AT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DID PUT IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 22Z BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST AND BY03Z
OR 04 Z WOULD EXPECT IVF AND LIFR TO SETTLE IN AGAIN. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION -FZDZ AT THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS IT
WILL BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.