Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271943
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
243 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ONE MORE SHOT AT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW TONIGHT...BEFORE MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS FROM MI TO KS AND EASTWARD...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WITH UP TO 130KT WINDS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT WITH A
125KT JET STREAK NOSING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO KS/CENTRAL OK.  850MB
COLD POCKET CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT SUB-0C
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY/DAKOTAS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTWARD.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL IA/NORTHWEST MO/CENTRAL
OK...WITH SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST ND.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF ND
THORUGH WESTERN MN...AND AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WAS
NOTED IN EASTERN ND/EASTERN SD DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  NARROW BAND OF LIFT WILL SKIRT
MAINLY THE MO RIVER AND EASTWARD...WITH LIFT OVERCOMING DRY LOW
LEVELS AROUND 00Z OR LATER AND SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH UNDER A TENTH OF
QPF AND JUST A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN WESTERN IOWA...TAPERING
QUICKLY TO LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE.  IN WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINNING...RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.  THE WAVE/FRONT SEEM FAST-MOVING...AND
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL EXIT QUICKLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  HAVE SPED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN COMMENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERCOMES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
MIXING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS...COULD SEE RH ON THE LOW
SIDE AND BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW...THE
COMBINATION WILL AT LEAST RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SURFACE FLOW LIKELY WEAKENS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE AMBLES NEAR THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.  850MB MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS FLOW TRAJECTORY TAKES MOISTURE UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH IT.  AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IS
BETTER TODAY REGARDING BOTH TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN...AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.  MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AREA GIVEN MOISTENING AND WARM
LOWER- TO MID-LEVELS...AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER MENTION.

FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE.  GFS REMAINS DRY AND BRINGS IN COOLER AIR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH DRAGGING COLD AIR DOWN AS IT
MOVES A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  KEPT A MODEL BLENDED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT HAVE
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL PATTERN EVOLUTION EXCEPT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE. A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DID ADD A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KOMA FOR -RA/SN LATE THIS EVENING BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN


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