Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 231715
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Temperatures will be the main forecast concern in this period,
with at least some chance of thunderstorms that will need to be
addressed Monday night into Tuesday.

A few high based showers did move across parts of the area
yesterday, but there was not much lightning. The layer below cloud
base was pretty dry as expected and there was not much measurable
precipitation. A few storms did try to get going west and south of
KLNK but most activity was farther south in KS.

Main items of note from the 00Z upper air charts included the
following. Jet segments of around 80-90 knots were noted over
southern British Columbia and over New England. At 500 mb, a
compact closed low was north of northern MN, with 12 hour height
falls of around 50 meters. Water vapor satellite loop early this
morning showed that feature moving southeast toward upper MI. Main
anticyclone in the mid levels was over UT. At 700 mb, cooler air
had moved into the northern and central parts of the Plains with
temperatures 3-4 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.

At the surface, weak high pressure was noted over the western
Dakotas early this morning. Some fog was occurring, mainly over
western IA. Will mention at least patchy fog into mid morning for
parts of the area. That previously mentioned area of high
pressure a the surface is expected to move eastward today and
tonight. Look for highs today mostly in the upper 80s and lower
90s.

A warm front should develop and move east/northeast on
Monday, reaching our western counties by Monday evening. Models,
especially the 00Z GFS, suggest storms may develop by late
afternoon or evening along or east of that boundary. The GFS did
appear too bullish with precipitation amounts and coverage, so
will just have a 20 percent chance in there for now. Activity
could last into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Then later
Tuesday, temperatures should turn hotter, with highs in the lower
and mid 90s. Main focus for storms would be to our north near a
southeastward moving cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Weak cold front should move southward through eastern NE and
southwest IA Tuesday night into Wednesday, with higher chances for
rain than we have had recently. Best chances appear to be behind
or north of the front, in the cooler air aloft and it may be
coincident with mid level moisture plume. The 00Z GFS showed
precipitable water values over 2 inches for parts of the central
Plains. We should also get somewhat of a boost from the right
entrance region of an upper level jetstreak to our north.

Chances should linger into Thursday morning, but decrease from
north to south. Then later in the week, it looks mainly dry from
Thursday night into Sunday. Highs should be in the 80s to lower
90s with lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A surface ridge axis analyzed from the Dakotas into western NE as
of 17z will build southeast through the region with the potential
for some fog formation at KOMA near or shortly after daybreak on
Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through forecast
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Mead



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