Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 022000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA
DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...NAM12 BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS QUITE OVERDONE
IN COMPARISON TO GFS20 SOLUTION WITH THE LATEST ECM/CMC LENDING
SUPPORT SHOWING TO A DRIER AIR MASS QUICKLY FILTERING IN. AND AT
THIS POINT BELIEVE SMALL OVERNIGHT POPS IS REASONABLE. ON MONDAY THE
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON EDGE OF CAP. STRENGTHENING LLVL JET MONDAY
NIGHT WILL THEN RESULT IN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN
ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA.

SFC BNDRY ADVERTISED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN IN
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NERN CWA TUESDAY WHERE AFTN INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL SET UP PER THE NAM12/GFS20. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN FOCUS
FOR POPS IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FOR WED...WILL CONTINUE
SMALL POPS IN LIGHT OF VIGOROUS LITTLE VORT MAX TRACKING THRU.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
PREVAILING OVER THE CONUS. GFS/ECM/CMC QPF PLACEMENT APPEAR TO BE
GENERALLY SIMILAR...BUT BELIEVE THEY ARE SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PDS. AND FOR NOW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO GOING POP FCST.

REGARDING TEMPS...METEOGRAMS ACROSS THE CWA INDICATE BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS ARE IN STORE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY
19-21Z. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE KOFK TAF
SITE...BUT COULD AFFECT KLNK/KOMA 23-01Z TIME FRAME. BECAUSE OF
LOW CERTAINTY ON DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...BUT WILL UPDATE FORECAST IF STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND WOULD
AFFECT THOSE TAF SITES. WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO BE AFFECTING
KOMA/KLNK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BY 23-01Z AS WELL.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD


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