Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 011706
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS COULD BEGIN TAF PERIOD AT KOMA BUT LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH AFTN. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF NERN NEBR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO
NERN NEBR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. WITH
18Z TAF A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP WAS MENTIONED AT KOFK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY AND THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED LATER IF
TRENDS DICTATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BULK OF ACTIVITY WOULD
REMAIN NW OF KOMA AND KLNK. LIGHT WINDS TOWARD TUE MORNING COULD
ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AND A TEMPO 3-4SM GROUP WAS
MENTIONED AT ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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