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000
FXUS65 KPUB 130208
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
808 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

...FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS FOR EXPIRATION OF OUR RED FLAG. ALSO...BASED ON
TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED UP DEWPOINTS...AND HENCE RH...FOR THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY...E WINDS OF 20 KTS ACROSS NE CO...NW KS...DW
NE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGHER DEWS INTO OUR CWA. DEWPOINTS
AT THOSE REGIONS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. QUESTION IS HOW
FAR AND HOW STRONG THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
FEEL THAT MOST MODEL SIMULATIONS ARE ON THE TOO STRONG SIDE...AND
ARE OVERDOING INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER...40S SEEM
REASONABLE FOR THE PLAINS AND EVEN THE PALMER DVD...BLACK
FOREST...AREA. THIS SHOULD BOOST RH FOR THE FIRE TO AT LEAST 60
PERCENT AND POSSIBLY MUCH HIGHER FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE THINGS GO DOWNHILL IN THE AFTERNOON. RH FOR THE
ARKANSAS CANYON...AND ROYAL GORGE...A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE RETURN UP THE
ARKANSAS IN THE MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST OBS...AND IN PARTICULAR
TO LOWER POPS TO SILENT OR SUB-TEN PERCENT CHANCE THIS EVE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM OVR THE HYR
TRRN THIS EVE...BUT IF IT OCCURS IT WILL BE ISOLD AND BRIEF. WINDS
OVR THE BLACK FOREST CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE S-SE AND WITH GUSTS
20-30 MPH...BUT SHOULD RELAX OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

PRIMARY SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES REMAIN FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AS WELL AS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR GENERALLY HIGH-BASED MOSTLY WIND AND LIGHTNING PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AS NOTED BY WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...WHICH IS
ALLOWING THE BLACK FOREST WILD FIRE TO CONTINUE TO GROW.

LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED GENERALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT THROUGH THURSDAY IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEREFORE A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220>237 FROM 11 AM
TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLEASE REVIEW THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION RELATIVELY BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRES OVER FORECAST DISTRICT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT MANY CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS LONGER TERM DISCUSSIONS METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES
REMAINING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES...ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED POPS AT TIMES.

HEALTHY UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AT 00Z FRIDAY IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT INTO LOUISIANA BY 06Z SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN
THIS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE THEN
REDEVELOPS AND BECOMES OVER FAR WEST TEXAS FROM SUNDAY INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

VARYING DEGREES OF LEE-SIDE TROUGHING ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN DURING
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS UNDER THE GUN EACH DAY...WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT HAVING INCREASED CONCERNS SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN
POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS
NEEDED.

ALSO...ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OF THE LONGER
TERM.

FINALLY...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES(HOWEVER STILL ABOVE MID-JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES) STILL ANTICIPATED FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES FROM TODAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES ON THE
PALMER DVD...ROYAL GORGE AREA AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE KCOS TAF SITE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EL PASO COUNTY REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH G35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 7 PM...AND THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO SE-E-NE AND EVENTUALLY N BY LATE EVENING.

RH MAY RECOVER SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS A BOUNDARY IN NE CO MAY DROP DOWN
FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SOME HIGHER LLVL MSTR INTO THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY CWA-WIDE. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS THE FAR SE PLAINS...EL PASO
COUNTY AND ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS. DRY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR
TOMORROW AND THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA
SHOWERS ACROSS NEARLY ALL AREAS IS QUITE HIGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ220>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE