Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181824
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1224 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

A weak upr level trof wl be ovr the area today and tonight.  Should
see some isold shower/tstms begin developing ovr some of the mtn
areas in the late morning hours, and then become more widespread ovr
and nr the hyr trrn for the afternoon and evening hours.  Isolated
storms will be possible ovr the sern plains late this afternoon and
thru the evening hours.  Storms are again expected to be slow moving
with heavy rain being a threat, especially in urban areas and ovr
burn scars.  High temps today should generally be around average.

Tonight a front will move thru eastern portions of the forecast
area, bringing the potential for some gusty northerly winds.  There
may also be some lingering showers or thunderstorms thru the night
over eastern areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Relatively active meteorological conditions are anticipated during
the longer term with most unsettled conditions expected from
Friday into the weekend. Primary challenges include but are not
limited to pops/qpf/storm intensities/temperatures and even the
potential for some higher mountain snow at times.

Recent longer range computer simulations...PV analysis and
forecast model soundings indicate that the forecast district will
experience unsettled northwesterly upper flow from Friday into the
weekend with upper flow becoming more zonal to southwesterly by
early next week.

In addition...adequate atmospheric moisture is projected over the
majority of the forecast district during the longer term and will
interact with upper disturbances and north to northeasterly
surface surges at times to generate daily rounds of shower and
thunderstorm activity...some intense at times.

At this time...the best juxtaposition of the the previously
mentioned meteorological elements are expected to impact the
forecast district from Friday into at least Saturday and WFO
Pueblo will monitor for locally heavy rainfall/localized flash
flood potential as well as stronger to marginally severe
thunderstorms during this time frame and WFO Pueblo will issue
necessary hydro/severe products as needed. Please note that the
Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorm
over several eastern locations of the forecast district Friday.

In addition...some accumulating snow is not out of the question
for select mountain peaks such as Pikes Peak during the Friday
evening/night time-frame and then again during the Saturday
evening/night time-frame as projected 700 MB temperatures drop to
around 5C at times and have trended this direction in grids.

Then from later this weekend into Wednesday will continue to
depict generally daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms(some
intense at times) over many sections of the forecast
district...generally favoring higher terrain locations.

Finally...generally below seasonal maximum and minimum
temperatures are anticipated over the majority of the forecast
district from Friday into the weekend with temperatures rebounding
by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Overall...VRF conditions are anticipated over the next 24h at all
3 taf sites...kpub...kals and kcos. Afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms will be possible today at all 3 sites...with brief
periods of mvfr due to cigs/rainfall. A better chance of showers
and storms will occur tomorrow as a cool front moves down the
region later tonight...and upslope flow develops tomorrow. Winds
could get gusty late tomorrow afternoon at KCOS and KPUB as a
secondary front pushes through the region.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...HODANISH



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