Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1041 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017


Variable high cloudiness along with some patchy lower clouds were
noted over the cwa at 3 am this morning. Most of the thicker high
clouds were noted over the southern 1/2 of the region. Temps varied
considerably across the region, with the warmest temps along the
immediate east slopes of the mtns/plains interface (u40s), while 30s
and 40s were over the remainder of the plains. in the mtns and
valleys, mainly 20s were noted.


Temps on the plains will be 10 to 15F warmer on the plains and about
5F warmer over the valleys/mts than compared to yesterday. Expect
temps to generally range between 67 and 73F on the plains and around
60s in the valleys and around 40F in the mtns. Less high clouds will
be noted over the region today as compared to yday afternoon. No
precip is anticipated. Winds will be light and diurnally driven.


dry and relatively mild wx will continue through tonight. Coldest
temps will be in the San Luis Valley where lows will reach about 20F.
Over the mtns and rest of the valley temps will be in the 20s and
30s. Mainly 30s will occur over the plains. Winds will be on the
increase tonight at highest elevations otherwise anticipate light
westerly winds. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

Models and ensembles in good agreement through the extended
period. Expect generally dry conditions with mild temperatures
across the region.

Tuesday through Wednesday...generally westerly flow aloft with
flat ridging will prevail across the region. Dry conditions are
expected to prevail through this period. Flow will increase on
Wednesday with breezy conditions over the mountains by the
afternoon hours. Warm temperatures are forecast for Tuesday with
highs in the 70s. A cold front will move south across the Plains
by Wednesday morning with cooler temperatures and highs in the

Thursday and upper level disturbance is forecast to
move across the region late in the work week. Ahead of the upper
trough, flow will turn southwesterly aloft and force the upper
ridge to the east. Models are hinting at the potential for
widespread strong winds Thursday into Friday. Humidity values are
expected to be in the teens on Thursday afternoon over the San
Luis Valley and Eastern Colorado Plains. These low humidity values
and strong winds will combine to produce near critical fire
weather conditions Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be in
the 60s to lower 70s Thursday afternoon. Expect showers to move
into the Continental Divide on Thursday. Snow levels will start
out high, with a few inches possible above 10 kft. Colder air will
arrive with the passing of the upper system on Friday and a cold
front on the Plains. Snow will continue along the Continental
Divide with snow levels lowering a bit. Additional of a few
inches are possible above this elevation. Dry conditions are
expected to prevail across the Plains Thursday and Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...the upper disturbance will shift east with
high pressure building over the Great Basin. This will put
southern Colorado under broad northwesterly flow aloft. Expect
snow to end by Saturday morning with dry conditions forecast to
prevail through the weekend into early next week. Temperatures
will likely remain coolish, with 50s to 60s for highs.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1040 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with light winds
under 15 kts.  -KT




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