Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 020532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1032 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

UPPER LOW EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH SURFACE AND
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR/JUST EAST OF PUEBLO. HAVE CONTEMPLATED
LOWERING WINTER STORM WARNINGS OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PLAINS
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...THOUGH WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO
INSIST WRAP-AROUND SNOW BUILDING SOUTH ALONG I25 TO AT LEAST
WALSENBURG OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNING
CONFIGURATION FOR NOW. SNOW BANDS PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. NORTH WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE MANY AREAS...AND EXPECT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
TO BECOME A PROBLEM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH
SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE DOWN AROUND KTAD.  DRY SLOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SLIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS WRAPPED NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND DEFORMATION BAND SNOW HAS STARTED
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NE CO.  STILL SEEING
A FAIRLY DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WEB CAMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION JUST YET.  MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING AND DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CO INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY 06Z.  AS THIS OCCURS...FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE COLDER
WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE STORM WITH SNOW PIVOTING DOWN THE WEST
SIDE...BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT.  SO ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH THIS
STORM...THERE IS STILL A SECOND WAVE TO GO...AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SNOW SPREADING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE KPUB AREA AND INTO LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND THAT IS WHEN THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN.  WINDS IN LATEST MODEL
SUITES APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A BLIZZARD
WARNING...BUT IT COULD COME CLOSE IN KIOWA COUNTY WHERE SOME THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO LIGHT IN
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS

WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WRAP AROUND WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PART
OF THIS FORECAST.  LATEST HRRR DOES PULL H7 WINDS AROUND FROM THE NE
THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE FOR THE WET
MOUNTAINS/WET MTN VALLEY/POSSIBLY NORTHERN SANGRES....BUT IT DOESN`T
APPEAR TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT MORE THAN JUST THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  GIVEN THE VALLEY CENTER AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MAY MISS OUT ON THE SECOND WAVE OF THE STORM...HAVE
OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.  WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED.  ANOTHER AREA
THAT MAY GET SLIGHTED FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SANGRES
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM WALSENBURG TO KTAD...BUT ITS
STILL TOO SOON TO SAY AT THIS POINT.  THIS AREA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z BEFORE THEY GET THEIR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHADOW
SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE SNOWFALL FOR THESE AREAS TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.

WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE GREATEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION BAND. THERE
ARE STILL SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THOUGH SO WILL HANG ONTO THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.  SUSPECT
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE PARED OUT OF THE WARNINGS
TOWARDS 12Z TUES.

SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER
OFF ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT...WITH GENERALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 4 IN THE AFTERNOON. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS SECONDARY ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATING SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AS MORE PACIFIC ENERGY DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
ENERGY MOVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
A PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS ARE DIGGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS COULD BRING A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH DEEP
MERIDIONAL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 1030 PM...WHILE THE SFC LOW WAS SITUATED
OVER HIGHWAY 50 BETWEEN CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES. THIS
POSITIONING HAS PUBLISHED HIGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR EL PASO
COUNTY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN HALF AS MUCH. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP TO
THE EAST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE WRAPAROUND ARE
AFFECTING THE PLAINS...CREATING AREAS OF GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.

LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE I25 CORRIDOR
FROM PUEBLO TO MONUMENT HILL...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES OF KPUB
AND KCOS THROUGH 18Z-20Z...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR TO VFR.

THE SLV AND KALS HAS BEEN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND IT IS
TRULY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY OF THE WRAPAROUND WILL AFFECT THE
VALLEY. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR VCSH ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS ARE FORECAST. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058>068-
072>089-093>098.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071-
099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE


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