Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200400

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1000 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

...Generally Dry and Unseasonably Warm...

Dry westerly flow will bring generally dry and unseasonably warm
weather to the region for the next 24 hours.  Thin high clouds will
begin to increase over the region from the southwest tonight.  High
level moisture will continue to increase through the day Tuesday
until it lowers and thickens enough to produce a few isolated
showers or storms along the Continental Divide after about 3 pm.
Elsewhere, high clouds may thicken but conditions should remain dry
through the day.  The dry westerly flow will keep temperatures well
above average for this time of year.  Lows tonight will generally be
5 to 10 degrees above average although some of the high mountain
valleys could see cooler than average readings due to strong
radiational cooling.  Highs on Tuesday will generally be 10 or more
degrees above average.  Here are some numbers for tonight and



.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

...Warm and windy weather through Friday with cooling into
the Weekend...

Tuesday night-Wednesday night...Latest models continue to indicate
mid and upper level moisture associated with weakening Tropical
system Paine becoming entrained within increasing southwest flow
aloft across the state, ahead of another upper trough digging across
the Pac Northwest Coast. Latest models, however, are indicating more
low level moisture returning across the eastern plains within breezy
south to southwest winds developing on Wednesday. At any rate, with
the increasing moisture, orographics and some weak forcing, should
see increasing chances of showers and storms across the ContDvd
Tuesday night with pops spreading east through the day Wednesday and
continuing out across the far se plains into Wednesday night.
Soundings across the I-25 corridor indicating more inverted V
profiles with more virga than rain expected, though do show some
increase in low level moisture further east.  Overnight lows to look
to be at or above seasonal averages, with highs on Wednesday
slightly cooler than Tuesday,  though still well above seasonal
levels across the eastern plains.

Thursday-Friday...Southwest flow aloft continues to increase across
the region with strong south to southwest flow aloft across the
state on Friday, as a deep upper low carves out across the Great
Basin on Thursday, and is progged to slowly weaken as is lifts out
across northwestern Colorado through the day Friday.  Moisture
embedded within the flow aloft combined with increasing orographic
flow to bring good chances of rain and snow to the higher terrain
along and west of the ContDvd, especially the eastern San Juan and
La Garita ranges. Models differ on amount of cold air associated
with the system, though with strong UVV, could see several inches of
snow for Wolf Creek pass Thursday night.

Friday continues to look like high fire danger day with a strong jet
core translating across the state. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph
with higher gusts remain in the forecast, and with warm temps, low
RH values and drying conditions, especially across the eastern
plains, could see critical fire weather conditions, with rapid
growth and spread possible. In addition...a line of strong storms
may develop across the far eastern plains during the afternoon and
race off to the northeast by early evening. Given the strong
shear...the storms will be severe if they develop. Storm intensity
will be dependent on how unstable the atmosphere can get.

Saturday-Monday...Models continue to indicate energy hanging back
across the Rockies through the weekend, with cool upslope flow
keeping temps generally at or below seasonal levels. Models differ
on strength and location of this energy, with the latest ECMWF much
stronger and much cooler than the GFS, supporting possible snow
across the eastern mountains on Saturday night and Sunday. Still way
too early to bite off on this, though will keep a cool and more
unsettled forecast at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

VFR conditions expected across the forecast area over the next 24
hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Increasing moisture from the west will usher in some high level
clouds by Tue morning, with isolated convection over the higher
terrain expected late aftn. Moore


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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