Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231345
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
745 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER AND POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR. LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF
FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE AND LOADED LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MOUNTAINS TODAY...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED A MASS OF RELATIVELY COOL STABLE AIR SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS TO THE WEST REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE ONLY REAL PROSPECTS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  THE
PLAINS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP.  OF NOTE...HOWEVER...ARE RUNS OF
THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE 4KM NSSL
WRF...THAT SHOW SOME CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM.  NOT SURE IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN GIVEN THE STRONG CAP INDICATED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  PROBABLY WHAT THESE MODELS ARE
DOING IS DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION...AND TRACKING IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ABOVE THE STABLE AIR.  USUALLY WHEN THIS
HAPPENS...HOWEVER...ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION DIES OUT ONCE IT MOVES
OVER THE STABLE AIR.  SO...SUSPECT THIS IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN.

PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS
TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.  THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY HEAVY RAIN OUT THERE.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES
COOLER OVER THE EAST TODAY WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...NOT QUITE
AS MUCH COOLING...RANGING FROM JUST A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN SOME
AREAS UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER IN OTHERS.  HIGH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FORM THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MOUNTAIN
READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH A MODEST
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK
WINDS ALOFT...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING
OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME INCREASED
CAPE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SHORTWAVE...MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE
PLAINS. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE ON BOTH
DAYS.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST INCREASING THE INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
LATEST SIMULATIONS HAVE WEDNESDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. GFS AND EC
DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE REGION WHICH SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY. WITH THE TROUGH NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION COULD
BE INFLUENCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH...WHICH COULD AFFECT
THE LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERAL TREND
WILL BE TO TURN FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BRINGING DRIER AIR
ALOFT INTO THE REGION. GRIDS GENERALLY HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THIS MORNING.  THE FRONT HAS EVEN PUSHED LOW
CLOUDS UP INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.  SKIES OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH SKIES OVER THE SAN JUANS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA AT THIS TIME BUT
THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.  OUTSIDE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS...CONDITIONS ARE VFR THIS MORNING.

MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  THEN...AFTER ABOUT 17Z...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.
A FEW STORMS COULD DRIFT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROUGHLY
22Z AND 02Z...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND WEAK
DUE TO A RELATIVELY COOL...STABLE AIRMASS SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS.
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR THESE
2 SITES IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE. FOR
KALS...NO STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING...BUT COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...12Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCTS AFTER 21Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW


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