Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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402
FXUS65 KPUB 191737
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Currently...

At 3 am, regional radar analysis indicated most of the showers were
over AZ, UT and western NM, with a few showers in southwest CO,
including the San Juan mountains. Skies over the fcst area were
clear over the southeast sections, and partly to mostly clouds over
the remainder of the region. Water Vapor imagery shows the monsoon
plume over a good part of the SW CONUS, with a well defined TUTT
cell (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) over southeast NM/far W TX.

Temps were quite mild early this morning as most readings on the
plains were still in the 70s. with 40s and 50s in the higher
terrain.

Today...

With the TUTT cell to our south, the southern sections of the CWA
are likely to remain on the drier side as compared to the last few
days. We will still see a few storms over the SW mtns, but coverage
will be less than the last few days. In addition, the southeast
plains will likely remain completely dry south of US-50.

As per the latest high resolution guidance, the main area of precip
today will likely extend from the La Garita mountains east-northeast
over the Pikes Peak region and then into northeast CO. Likewise,
have painted highest pops this region during the later afternoon
time period. This will place the Hayden and Waldo burn scars in the
higher precip region, and these two scars will have to be watched
carefully later this afternoon. The Mt Princeton Chalk Bluffs will
also have to be watched carefully. A heavy rainer will also be
possible over the urban areas of Colorado Springs.

With lots of Sun over the se Plains and sinking motion associated
with the TUTT cell, it will be quite hot over the plains, and
readings to around 100F are likely at KLAA and KLHX.

Tonight...

Expect precip to drop off after the mid evening hours across the
higher terrain and Palmer Divide regions. Although cant rule out
some isold pops tonight over the mtns, have very low to silent pops
this region for later tonight, and this coordinates well with the
BOU and ABQ wx offices. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.Thursday and Friday...Monsoon pattern continues over the region.
On Thursday, the upper high starts drifting eastward with a
modest increase of moisture into the mountains. By Friday, the
upper high will move further east with the monsoon plume centered
over Colorado. With the increased moisture, precipitation chances
will increase, mainly over and near the mountains, with a better
chance for locally heavy downpours. With weak winds aloft, do not
suspect many storms will be able to propagate eastward to the
plains.

.Saturday and Sunday...Upper ridge redevelops near the four
corners as a disturbances moves across the northern Rockies and
into the northern high plains. High pressure will build into the
northern high plains with deeper upslope flow developing on the
plains. This will lead to an increase in low level moisture over
the plains and eastern mountains along with cooler temperatures.
Will have to watch for increased potential for thunderstorms
producing heavy rain over the plains and eastern mountains, due to
the increased low level moisture. Will also have to watch how far
south the monsoon plume will be suppressed with ridge aloft
developing near the four corners. Models want to maintain middle
and upper level moisture over the region which will continue
chances for storms over the Continental Divide region.

.Monday and Tuesday...Southwest flow develops over the region as a
trough develops along the west coast. The southwest flow aloft
would tend to move the monsoon plume towards the east. There is the
potential for the plume to be over southeast Colorado,
maintaining the possibility for thunderstorms with locally heavy
downpours. The plume many could also move east of the region,
decreasing chances for locally heavy downpours. GFS and EC show
some differences with the GFS being wetter. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will return to portions of
the flight area this afternoon and evening. The majority of the
activity will be along and north of a line from Creede to Colorado
Springs. South of the line, isolated storms will be possible.
Most of the plains south and east of Pueblo will remain free of
thunderstorms today. Primary storm risks will include lightning,
gusty winds, heavy rain and local small hail. CIGS and VSBYS will
range anywhere from MVFR to LIFR through areas of precipitation.

The KALS and KPUB TAF sites will like be south of the convection
today. KCOS, on the other hand, will be near the southern edge of
the convection and could see a storm near or at the terminal,
primarily after 22z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW



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