Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231636
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1036 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND FOG IS HANGING AROUND IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...IMPACTING AREAS NEAR EAGLE UP TO STATE BRIDGE. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT IS NOT FAR AWAY AND THE
SUN SHOULD BE SCATTERING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT BY NOON MDT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME HIGH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRIFTING BY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS. WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND WAA
KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A TAD WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAM
CONTINUES TO BRING PLENTY OF PRECIP TO THE PACNW. WE MAY SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY UP NORTH...BUY BY AND
LARGE...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL END THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPECT A WARM NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES REACH
THEIR PEAK FOR THE WEEK UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH COMES ONSHORE
THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE.

A TALE OF TWO MODELS CONTINUES AS THE GFS AND EC BOTH PICKING UP
ON A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD SUNDAY...OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LOW QPF AMTS. THE
EC BRINGS PRECIP IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LARGER QPF
AMTS. BY NOW WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR INDIVIDUAL GUNS. BLENDED SOLN STILL
LOOKING GOOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND DROPPING
OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...NWLY FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACNW. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP FOR US WHILE EC KEEPS US BONE DRY. SCHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS
WILL BE IMPROVING BY THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AS THE STRATUS BURNS
OFF. WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
NOR PRECIPITATION TODAY...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL
REFORM AGAIN AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...15



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