Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 062108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...WILL
NOTICE ANY EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
OFFERING A GLANCING BLOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK MINOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FAST NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THIS SAME REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AND SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
FORECASTING HOW FAR BELOW GUIDANCE THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE GRAND AND GUNNISON VALLEYS...UINTAH BASIN
AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU ARE STRUGGLING...AND WELL BELOW THE MODELED
MAX TEMP. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH NIGHT AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...DECREASING THE AMPLITUDE
A BIT BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE ONLY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS...THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN. SO UNDERCUT VALLEY TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND DAY TO
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE VALLEYS OF EAST
CENTRAL UTAH AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 20Z WITH
CLEAR CONDITIONS MOVING IN THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP OFTER 04Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. KEGE...KASE...KVEL AND KCNY WILL ALL SEE SOME FOG
MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF THE AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NEAR THE STRATUS...EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...JDC


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