Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 031527 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
927 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST TODAY GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE A MORNING UPDATE TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTH OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND NARROW BAND OF 700-500 MB THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL GET SURFACE
HEATING AND ATTENDANT INSTABILITY GOING...LEADING TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE BETTER OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTN AREAS AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL KEEP EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE POOLED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DAILY CONVECTION...FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS THEN DRIFTING
OVER THE VALLEYS BY EARLY EVENING. BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAN
JUANS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HOLDING AROUND 1.2
INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH...STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. MOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND NO REASON TO STRAY FAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS PERSISTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL KEEP STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH CAUSING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FORECAST PWAT VALUES
VARY FROM 1 INCH TO 1.3 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADD
THIS MOISTURE TO THE TRAILING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
YOU HAVE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. WITH
THIS MUCH MOISTURE...THE BIGGEST CONCERN BECOMES STORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING BENEATH THEM. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE DROPS TO ABOUT AN INCH BY MONDAY THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT TOO QUICK. EVEN SO...STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS THAT FORM.

A LOW WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY WHILE THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. WHILE THIS IS NOT A
CLASSIC MONSOON PER SE...THE STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS AND LOCATION OF THIS PLUME CERTAINLY LOOKS MONSOON-
LIKE. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
THE RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING TEMPS TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING GENERALLY
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AND MEEKER THOUGH SOME NEW CELLS ARE
POPPING JUST SOUTH OF GRAND JUNCTION. OBS SHOWING MID LEVEL CIGS
SO EXPECT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ON TAP HOWEVER WITH SOUTHERN TAF SITES
SEEING BETTER CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAN THOSE UP NORTH.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT ANY MENTION IN TAFS HOWEVER
EXCEPT FOR KTEX WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER
18Z. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA
POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR


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