Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 160448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1048 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Should continue unseasonably warm and remain dry across most of
our CWA through Sunday night. The only exception is the far
northwest corner of our CWA, including the eastern Uinta Mountains
where minimal threat of precipitation will be possible. Then a
little better chance of showers Sunday night across the northern
border region of our CWA as an embedded disturbance swings on
through. Breezy southwest winds are expected again by Sunday
afternoon across our CWA, similar to this afternoon and yesterday
afternoon. And again expect localized fire weather concerns where
fuels are considered vulnerable.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Little change is seen in the pattern and sensible weather for our
CWA until late Tuesday and Wednesday when a more significant
shortwave trough is likely to roll across our CWA. Continues to be
some significant differences between GFS and EC models on
intensity and speed of movement of trough over our area. EC has
been consistently showing a very progressive system with moisture
mainly remaining north of I-70, then moving well east of our area
by late Wednesday afternoon. The GFS is now leaning more towards
the EC solution, having shown in yesterday`s runs a deepening
trough over our CWA which kept the troughiness and moisture over
our CWA into Thursday morning. Due to consistency considerations,
have more confidence in the EC solution than the GFS.

Both models then develop upper high/ridge into the western states
for the remainder of the week, with the EC building a higher
amplitude ridge than the GFS, with the EC supporting higher
temperatures across our CWA than the GFS.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1048 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Light...decoupled valley wind overlaid by a strong southwest wind
will lead to areas of llws through mid to late morning sunday. As
temperatures warm and begin to mix the atmosphere these winds
should re-emerge at the surface and bring another concern with
gusts over 30 mph and possibly as high as 50 mph through sunset on
Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail with cigs above 120kft agl.
The probability of blowing dust limiting vsby to near mvfr is very
small but can not be ruled out...confidence is low so no mention
in this round of tafs.




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