Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 262126
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS ACTIVITY SENDING SOME ENHANCED
DRAINAGE/OUTFLOW WINDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN IN
FORCE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS A DRY FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL BELOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DRY FRONT WORKS IN...SENDING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE FOCUS
OVER AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...WHERE THE NAM12 AND RAP HOLDING ON TO DEEPER MOISTURE A
BIT LONGER. SFC MOISTURE ALSO DEPARTS WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS WILL
BE UP SLIGHTLY IN MANY AREAS...WITH MOS NUMBERS IN THE BALLPARK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ENERGETIC NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL BE LIFTING ENE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA TUESDAY...DRIVING THE ABOVE MENTIONED DRY FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THE RIDGE STARTS REBUILDING TO THE WEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK NORTH...BUT CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TO
OUR WEST AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO FILL BACK
INTO OUR REGION. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND RECENTERS OVER WESTERN
COLORADO BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
WORK BACK INTO EASTERN UTAH AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SENDING THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH BACK IN. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ON THE NEAR NORMAL TO START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
AVERAGE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG-
KRIL-KGJT-KCEZ FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
+SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF
G30-40KTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...CIGS MAY DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM
PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA.

NORTHWEST COLORADO...LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 25KTS IS EXPECTED FROM
19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. WITH FUELS AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST
INPUT FROM PARTNERS...EXPECTED HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE UPGRADING THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING.

IN THE MEANTIME...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200 AND 202 IN EXTREME NORTHWEST
COLORADO. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE WITH WINDS APPROACHING CRITERIA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ZONE 202 WAS ADDED LATE WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS AT A FEW SITES. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF DEEP MIXING
STILL TO GO...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ200>203.

 RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200 AND COZ202.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JDC


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