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000
FXUS65 KGJT 211548
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
848 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

VISIBILITY IS IMPROVING IN THE ERN UINTA BASIN AND THE FOG IS
SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN VERNAL. ELECTED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
SINCE THE TREND WILL BE FOR CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT. NORTHEAST WIND
AT 10 MPH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD SCOUR OUT
THE FOG/HAZE THAT IS TRAPPED WITHIN THE BASIN.

REGARDING THE ELONGATED WEST/EAST DEFORMATION/BAROCLINIC BAND OVER
NE ARIZONA INTO NW NEW MEXICO...MUCH OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE STAYS OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
SOME "SPILLAGE" OF WEATHER INTO THE WESTERN SLOPE FROM UPSLOPE
FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLE THESE DETAILS
WELL...BUT REMOTE AREAS OF THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS (SRN
HINSDALE AND ERN ARCHULETA COUNTIES) MAY RECEIVE FAIR AMOUNTS OF
SNOW. STILL ASSESSING THE SITUATION AND MIGHT HOIST AN ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

FOG YET AGAIN IN THE ERN UINTA BASIN THOUGH VISIBILITY AT KVEL UP A
BIT WITH PASSING CLOUDS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE CONTINUES UNTIL
NOON.

TWO DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING FROM SRN CA INTO WRN AZ AND ANOTHER DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS SERN ID. THE AZ SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS AZ/NM
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW CONFLUENT AXIS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE FROM WRN AZ ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TO CENTRAL OR SERN CO PER
THE 295K/300K ISENTROPIC AND 700 MB STREAMLINES. THIS APPEARS TO
BE SUPPORTED BY THE ENHANCED BAND OF CLOUDS AND RADAR RETURNS
STRETCHING EAST NEAR THE UT/AZ BORDER AT 08Z. HAVEN`T SEEN ANY
PRECIP AT ASOS SITES IN THIS AREA THOUGH. THIS FEATURE TO SHIFT
OVER SE UT/SW CO THIS MORNING THEN SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE REACHES NE UT. ADDED SOME LOW-
END POPS TO SE UT/SW CO THIS MORNING AND BUMPED UP POPS IN SWRN CO
THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE PHASES WITH OR DROPS RIGHT IN BEHIND THIS
AZ WAVE AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OF A 500 MB LOW OVER NWRN NM TONIGHT.
IT IS INITIALLY DRY SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS NE
UT/NW CO TODAY. THE GFS/SREF/ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A 700 MB LOW
BRIEFLY SPINNING UP SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF DURANGO/PAGOSA SPRINGS AT 06Z
TONIGHT AND COULD FAVOR ENHANCED PRECIP OVER THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS
EAST OF HWY 550...INCLUDING PAGOSA SPGS AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY`S
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. MODELS PLACE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WITH THESE
TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS NRN NM AND SERN CO...BUMPING UP TO THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN AND SAWATCH MTNS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR PAGOSA SPGS OR THE MTNS OF SRN HINSDALE AND ERN
ARCHULETA COUNTIES. WPC 24-HR PROBABILITY OF ADVISORY SNOW AMTS BY
THU MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS LESS THAN 50 PCT.

THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK 700 MB COLD
FRONT THROUGH AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE STAGNANT AIR IN THE
ERN UINTA BASIN TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FOG FOR VERNAL
TONIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH ON THU FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

NOT MUCH WEATHER PER SE TO SPEAK OF IN THE LONG TERM AS OUR CWA
BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. GUIDANCE YESTERDAY
SUGGESTED SOME WAVES MOVING UP AND OVER THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE DROPPING DOWN AND POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO THE NRN
MTNS. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN A LITTLE MORE STRONGLY KEEPING THE WAVES OF ENERGY...AND ANY
ASSOCD PRECIP...OVER NRN WY AND AREAS EAST. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN
THEN WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOG AND LOW STRATUS FOR THE USUAL
SUSPECTS...THE UINTAH BASIN...GUNNISON BASIN...4 CORNERS REGION
AND THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN. MODELS PROBABLY RUNNING A LITTLE WARM
IN THOSE AREAS SO DROPPED HI TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. ASIDE FROM THAT...WARMING TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KVEL
WHICH CONTINUES TO SEE IFR TO VLIFR IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THIS
COULD CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
SO...LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF TAF AFTER 18Z. AFTER
00Z...APPROACHING PRECIP FROM THE EAST MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND VIS TO KASE AND AREAS SOUTH INCLUDING KGUC...KTEX...AND
FINALLY KDRO THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND MAYBE A FEW HOURS AFTER
THAT. FLT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. EXPECT PLENTY OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS DOWN THROUGH THE SAN JUANS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR