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000
FXUS65 KGJT 061148
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
448 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING TO THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING PUSHING A STRONG
BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. ENERGY AND INSTABILITY ARE
ALSO QUITE ROBUST AS LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WARM AIR PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BOOST HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL TODAY EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND
BEGIN TO LOWER LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 300 TO
305 THETA SURFACES SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING TO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO RAMP
UP AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. 00Z NAM CONTINUED
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT JET LEVEL WITH A STRONGER ZONAL CORE MOVING THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE AND
CONSISTENT SO CONTINUE TO LEAN THAT WAY...WITH IT AIDING THE 06Z NAM
SOLUTION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONGER ENERGY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND AMPLIFYING HEIGHTS BACK
TO THE WEST. BY THIS EVENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL GET A BIG BOOST
FROM JET DYNAMICS. THE NOSE OF THE CYCLONIC CORE ENTERING THE FROM
THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN UTAH LINKS UP WITH A DEPARTING JET OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER
THE WESTERN CWA. THE ASCENT UNDER THE JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENISIS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WITH A HINT OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS WELL. DID PLACE THE EASTERN
UINTAS IN AN ADVISORY WITH MORE FOCUSED LIFT HELPING BOOST
PRECIPITATION RATES. HOWEVER IT WILL BE THE NORTHERLY CAA FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP SNOW GOING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY. THE
BIGGEST INGREDIENT MISSING SEEMS TO BE COLD AIR AND CONFIDENCE STILL
SHAKY THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL GET TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SREF
PLUMES AND BUFKIT SUGGEST 1-3 INCHES AT BEST OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE WEAKENING TOWARD SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY WHICH IN TURN WEAKENS THE FRONT AS IS SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL
THEN SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH THIS GOOD SHOT OF
MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINING WITH OROGRAPHICS
AND INSTABILITY THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ADDED THESE AREAS TO THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.
5-12 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH 2 TO 5 BELOW IS THE TARGET FOR
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES IN THE EAST. AGAIN ON THE FENCE FOR THE
GLENWOOD/CARBONDALE AND EAGLE AREAS. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL GET
SNOW WITH FROPA BUT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM DURING THE DAY
ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT CONTINUE. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. TEMPS COOL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

MOUNTAIN CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WANE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM. THE SHEAR
AXIS DOES NOT CLEAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS STAY BENEATH
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...THIS SHOULD
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. AS THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE DISSIPATING OVER SW COLORADO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND ERN UTAH WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE BULGING UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FLOPS ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO ON SUNDAY AND FLATTENS ON MONDAY. THIS IS A PERIOD OF
WARM ADVECTION WITH MONDAY BECOMING THE WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
DIGS TOWARD UTAH AND COLORADO...COURTESY OF AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM
RIDGE. THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG THE WYOMING
BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATE A DYNAMIC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS TIME PERIOD. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...SO ANTICIPATE FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. NEVERTHELESS THIS SYSTEM
COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING
CIGS. AS SNOW DEVELOPS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES...MOUNTAIN TOPS
BECOME OBSCURED WITH PCPN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF KEGE AND
KASE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPACT THE KASE AIRPORT AROUND 10Z AS LIGHT
SNOW LIMITS VISIBILITY. ALL OTHER TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN VFR.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST
     FRIDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET FOR THE COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     FRIDAY COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     FRIDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET FOR THE UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF