Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 262139
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

WRAPAROUND FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IS
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR AN IR SATELLITE LOOP. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW SLOWLY
CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
CONTINUE ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE UINTA MOUNTAINS SO THE ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON WED. HOWEVER PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ITS CENTER OVER
LAS VEGAS BY LATE WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW BECOME
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH.
ALSO THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME WARMING ALOFT...SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

LOOK FOR AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER ALL
MOUNTAINS AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10K FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES E-NE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO
ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SAT. MODELS MORE-OR-LESS SHOW THIS
WESTERN LOW AND THE PREVIOUS LOW WILL REMAIN LINKED...WITH OUR
FORECAST AREA POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS MARRIAGE MAY LAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER OUR REGION.
SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL AT TIMES ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. BUT SNOW
MAY AT TIMES DROP INTO THE HIGHER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND IN THE LATE NIGHT PERIODS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT
NIGHT. IN SPITE OF THESE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS...NIGHTTIME
FREEZES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN...DUE TO THE BLANKETING MOIST AIR MASS. THE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

WRAPAROUND FLOW FROM THE LOW OVER SERN WY CONTINUES TO PUMP IN
MOISTURE CAUSING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ALL TAF SITES ARE SEEING MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ILS BREAKPOINTS BEING MET FOR MANY OF THEM. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP CIGS/VIS EVEN MORE REACHING
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...AT TIMES. VCSH LOOKS A SAFE BET FOR MANY
SITES AND ARE INCLUDED IN TAFS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 06Z THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR



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