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000
FXUS65 KGJT 190300
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF PAGOSA
SPRINGS...APPEARS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE
DAY. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS
DISSIPATING WITHIN AND SURROUNDING THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE
CUT BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

WNW FLOW ALOFT AND AXIS OF NEAR NORMAL PRECIP WATER OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
OVER NRN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME DIFFUSE. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVERHEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY. WRN CO IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ENTRANCE AND
EXIT REGIONS OF UPPER LEVEL JETS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AVAILABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT DIE OFF COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
SHOULD HAVE REGENERATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTRED SHRA/TSRA BY
EARLY AFTN SATURDAY...AGAIN MAINLY AFFECTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ADJACENT DOWNWIND VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH SOME 100-105 DEGREE READINGS IN
SOUTHEAST UT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS ON
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST AND FLATTEN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO A POSITION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK. MAINLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
MOISTURE LATER ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG-KGUC...WILL END
BY SUNSET OR 03Z THIS EVENING. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN
COLORADO AND THE NERN UTAH MOUNTAINS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...PF