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000
FXUS65 KGJT 242232
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
432 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TODAY. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAX AREAS
ENTERING SOUTHEAST UTAH WHICH ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE SAN JUANS
BUSY THIS EVENING. FROM I-70 AND SOUTH...THE BIGGEST THREAT SO FAR
SEEMS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES. NORTH OF I-70 WE HAD A 50 MPH TSTORM GUST RECORDED AT
THE KCAG ASOS...SO WINDS SEEM TO BE A FACTOR UP NORTH AS WELL AS
HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY YET. THE POTENTIAL IS STILL
THERE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH A LINE OF STORMS WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED FROM VERNAL SOUTHWEST TO GOBLIN VALLEY UTAH.

A DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS OVER
NORTHCENTRAL ARIZONA AND HEADED THIS WAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL NOT REACH SOUTHEASTERN UTAH UNTIL ABOUT
9PM...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THOUGH
THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT WILL SHIFT TO A WEST TO EAST
TRAJECTORY. CONVECTIVE INDICES LOOK SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FORM AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN STARTING
SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE WEST OVER UT. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN ON MONDAY. REMNANTS FROM A EASTERLY WAVE THAT ARE
FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN UT AND
WESTERN CO AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE RIDGE REMAINS DOMINATE WITH THE AXIS OVER UT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE ALTHOUGH NOT DIRECTLY WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER
FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 432 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ALL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 30-35 KTS
MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PASSING
+SHRA/+TSRA. DECREASING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT. AFTER THE TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

WINDS AND RH VALUES MAY BECOME NEAR CRITICAL FOR A FEW HOURS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LITTLE SNAKE FORECAST AREA OF NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY AND TIGHTEN THE UPPER GRADIENT AND BRING DRIER AIR OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WINDS WILL RELAX AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...AS