


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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599 FXUS65 KGJT 062055 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 255 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above normal by Wednesday, and remain there through the rest of the week. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the terrain are possible tomorrow, but high pressure will keep most of the region dry throughout the week. - Critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday through Friday as stronger winds move through. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Sounding PWAT`s are trending downwards with today`s 18Z sounding dropping below 0.4 inches for the first time since last Tuesday. There does appear to be enough residual moisture overhead to develop scattered cloud cover along the high terrain though. Isolated showers and a few sparse thunderstorms are possible mostly near the Park Range today as well, though the relatively stable environment should keep any storms on the milder side. Tomorrow, we catch a combination of slightly increased (yet still below normal) moisture and a boost in lift from a transient shortwave embedded within the upper-level ridge. CAM`s reflect this with more scattered afternoon convection across the southeastern CWA. Precipitation potential reaches 50% over the San Juans, but much of the rest of the region looks to be on track for more sporadic and isolated storms focused along the terrain. Where storms do develop, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and lightning will all be possible. Otherwise, look for temperatures to continue rising throughout the next few days with some lower valley locations beginning to hit triple digits highs tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 High pressure continues to be centered just south of the Four Corners through Wednesday allowing southwest flow aloft to continue advecting warm and dry air into the region. Triple-didgit high temperatures are likely for most of the lower-desert valleys on Tuesday and Wednesday as a result. While temperatures will top out around 5-10 degrees above normal for early/mid July, record highs are not anticipated. A weakening shortwave trough is progged to pass through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. While ensemble data is hinting at a slight uptick in mositure with its passage as PWATs rise to 115-130% of normal, this spike happens overnight for most locations in our forecast area. Southwest Utah has the best chance to see a few showers and storms as the moisture moves in Wednesday evening, but the timing of this wave does not look to be in our favor to provide wetting rains or precipitation chances in general. The biggest concern with this wave`s passage is the potential for critical fire weather conditions with a stronger pressure gradient leading to stronger surface winds. These impacts may extend into Friday for parts of southwest Colorado, but models are not in very good agreement in the wake of the aformentioned shortwave. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with light, terrain-driven winds gusting up to 20 knots this afternoon. The is a very small chance (<20%) for thunderstorms along the Divide this afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...KAA AVIATION...TGJT