Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 232132
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
332 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BREEZE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE...THOUGH POCKETS OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER PVA AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
WERE PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN UT. WILL EXPECT A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...MOST OF IT BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z...WITH
THE HIGHEST LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF ZONE
4.

ON WEDNESDAY A TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS IN AND JUST AS QUICKLY
WILL BE PUSHED OUT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND MINOR COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...THOUGH ITS TRAJECTORY IS MORE FROM THE NW
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING PASSAGE. WILL
EXPECT SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER FRONT IS FORCED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BY A PASSING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD FOR
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS AND SO WENT PUSHED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES. HIGHS LOOK TO END UP SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE WARM LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING
PERIOD OF WEEK/S PAST. WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE WAVE
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICS THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR
FORCING. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK TO BE FAVORED
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND CURRENT FORECAST TREND ON
TRACK. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WEDNESDAY AND
SHOULD NOT MAKE A RE-APPEARANCE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UNTIL
THEN STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY TO START THE WARMUP
WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLEST
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND COULD BRING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO
MANY AREAS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH AFTER 03Z
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL ABOUT
04Z THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY DECREASE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH
AT TIMES THIS AFTN AT SEVERAL TAF SITES AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THESE
STORMS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING A TAF SITE. EXPECT KASE TO EXPERIENCE
LLWS TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO AND UT MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW LEVEL
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 6K AND 7K FEET MSL. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KASE
SHOULD BECOME LOCALLY OBSCURED IN SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE PLACED SHOWERS
IN VCNTY OF KASE AND KEGE...THOUGH CIG AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
THE FRONT AND WEATHER WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY TO THE EAST SO TUE
MORNING SHOULD ONLY SEE REMNANT OROGRAPHIC SNOW HUGGING THE HILLS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY AND BREEZY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC



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