Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 212315
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
515 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 515 pm MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A a ridge building over the Great Basin tonight, cool air will
continue filtering into western CO and eastern UT. The storm that
affected the area yesterday and last night is now affecting
predominantly eastern CO, but scattered snow showers over the
higher mountains of the Continental Divide will continue until
early Saturday morning. These should have only brief impacts on
traveling and mostly due to locally decreased visibility in snow
showers over the highest passes.

Cool dry northwesterly flow will persist over the forecast area
on Saturday night as a ridge of high pressure slides east over
the intermountain west. As the ridge builds over the CWA a brief
warming trend will develop.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

High pressure and warm air aloft moves back into the region on
Sunday along with strong southwesterly winds. These winds, warm
temperatures and low relative humidity values will create some fire
weather concerns. See more below in the fire weather section for
more details. The next weather maker will move in on Monday from the
west - initially not very organized, but by Wednesday a slug of
moisture targets the region with a slightly better organized weather
system. Still some model divergence on the solution for next
Wednesday, but this does appear to be the wettest day of the week
with the most widespread rain, thunderstorm and snow coverage. Snow
level looks to remain fairly high Monday through Wednesday, but in
the overnight hours snow accumulations will be possible over the
high passes and even down to 8000/8500 ft though it is far out to be
very confident on snow levels. With the spring sunshine in our favor
any snow that falls will not stick around for long. Below normal
temperatures are expected for the later half of next week behind
these weather systems.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Scattered rain and snow showers will continue across Colorado`s
northern and central mountains through about 03z this evening.
This activity poses a slight chance for brief showers lowering
CIGS to below MVFR levels at KRIL, KEGE, and KASE. Otherwise,
these sites will have prolonged periods where CIGS are below ILS
breakpoints. Elsewhere, VFR conditions and CIGS above ILS
breakpoints are expected. All sites will see CIGS dissipate after
03Z with VFR conditions returning. Mountains will be locally
obscured over western CO through about 15z Saturday.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday afternoon. As the
next Pacific storm approaches, southwest winds at the surface
will increase and in conjunction with humidities below 15% and dry
fuels, there will be a heightened concern about fire weather
conditions through Sunday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for COZ203-207-290.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJC
LONG TERM....JAM
AVIATION.....CJC
FIRE WEATHER...CJC



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