Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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225
FXUS65 KGJT 230444
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1044 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have been slower than expected to wind
down this evening. And there continues to be activity upstream
over UT at 1030 PM MDT. While storms are not as intense as early
in the evening, expect that at times scattered showers and
thunderstorms will track across much of the area. Therefore have
bumped up the pops for the next 2-3 hours, tapering them off by
0300-0400 AM MDT. These weaker storms seem to be moving along
better than earlier, so accumulations are not expected to cause
any additional problems.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

This afternoon, moisture remains deep but has eroded somewhat.
There are two disturbances helping to enhance thunderstorms. Weak
sheared energy over the south helped storms fire there first this
early afternoon. Storms across the south and central have a slow
storm motion to the ENE at 5-10mph. These storms are showing a
tendency to hug the higher terrain and thus could produce locally
heavy rain. Some areas have saturated soils, such as along hwy 145
between Placerville and Telluride. Crested Butte area too got
over an inch of rain Thursday afternoon. The second disturbance is
tracking W-E across the north this evening. These storms are in a
drier environment and are moving faster to the east at 10 mph. So
these storms threaten more wind but less threat of heavy rain
accumulations.

The forcing from the two disturbances all seems to end around
midnight tonight with subsidence into Saturday morning. Moisture
erodes further on Saturday with a disturbance timed to pass over
the north late afternoon into the evening. So chances of localized
flooding diminish but do not come to an end.

Afternoon temperatures remain about 8 degrees above normal while
morning lows will be above normal central and south, below normal
north in the drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The subtropical ridge will be centered over the Four Corners on
Sunday. This further limits available moisture, so late-day
convection will favor the southern and central high country.

Monday a Pacific trough works onshore and into the Great Basin.
The resulting SW flow helps moisture and late-day storm coverage to
increase a bit.

Tuesday the trough moves onto the High Plains and the ridge takes
full control of the region. This brings dry and warm conditions with
only isolated storms expected over the southern mountains through
the remainder of the week. Winds look to remain below the
critical fire weather threshold.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will continue across
the forecast area, winding down after 08Z. These showers and
thunderstorms late tonight are not expected to be nearly as
intense as earlier, so VFR conditions will dominate. But isolated
and brief MVFR conditions may still be possible through around
08Z. Thunderstorm activity will again increase Saturday afternoon,
however a downturn in areal coverage is expected. The
thunderstorms that do develop will favor higher terrain.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...EH



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