Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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607
FXUS65 KGJT 040946
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
246 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT
BASIN AND REACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING LOOKS GOOD WITH CHANCE OF
PRECIP INCREASING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW DENSITY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. BEEN WATCHING CLOUD TOPS COOL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SALT LAKE
BASIN...BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A LOT OF THE MOISTURE TO GET
WRUNG OUT WHEN PASSING THE WASATCH RANGE. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH - SOMEWHERE FROM 17:1 TO 20:1 ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PASSES INCLUDING RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL ERODE FRIDAY AS BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN US BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A FEW VERY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ELKHEAD/GORE/PARK RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
MOST LIKELY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECTING
THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR SNOWPACK NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK THE INVERSION AT THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOW HUGGING THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES WILL
DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 08Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. AFTER
ABOUT 19Z MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH
AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW INCREASING. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE OVER THE
COLORADO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING. KASE AND
KEGE SHOULD SEE CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY
EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...CC



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