Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 180914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
314 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Expect plenty of sunshine over the area today as active weather
remains well to our north and south. Westerly flow will set up which
will allow high temperatures to inch up a few more degrees.
Heights will increase somewhat towards the evening and overnight
hours as high pressure slowly builds in from the south. This will
also cause winds to become more southwesterly for Monday allowing
temperatures to continue to increase with high temperatures about
10 degrees warmer than normal. Like today, Monday will bring
sunshine and dry conditions. This all looks to change Tuesday and
beyond as described below.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Clouds will invade the area from the SW in the afternoon and
overnight as a trough approaches the southern California coast.
The weakening trough works through the southern Great Basin on
Tuesday passing here Tuesday evening. It has a 50kt jet that
produces some weak forcing. Instability will be weak. The system
does pull good moisture (GFS precipitable water 1.05 inches) into
the southern half of the forecast area. Though locally heavy
showers will be possible, mainly in the southern mountains, storm
motion of around 25 mph will limit or eliminate flooding

Wednesday, a stronger system digs into the Great Basin then lifts
through the region on Thursday. This system will have a 90+ knot
jet cyclonically curved across the north late Thursday with a -23C
cold core passing early Friday. This is the strongest system so
far this season. Veering shear will be available with this system
for the potential of strong organized storms.

High pressure builds along the West Coast behind the system for a
dry NW flow into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

A few clouds possible today and aside from that, no aviation
concerns expected. VFR continues.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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