Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR TODAY AND UPDATED THE
FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

...SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...

UPPER LOW ACROSS NV/CA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...THEN
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NRN AZ/4 CORNERS REGION TONIGHT.  WHILE WE LOOSE
THE MAJORITY OF OUR LIFT/UPGLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL STAY VERY MUCH IN THE ACTION.  JUDGING FROM
SATELLITE...ONE LOBE OF ENERGY IS MOVING INTO SW CO ATTM WITH AREA
OF ENHANCEMENT IN IR ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO.  AREA RADARS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/WRN CO ATTM. WV SHOWS SOME
DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE WORKING IN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NV EDGES INTO SW CO DURING THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING.  LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL...SO THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW...AND THE SAN JUANS STAND TO PICK UP
ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE BY ALL SAID AND DONE
LATER THIS EVENING.  ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT AS THE UPPER LOW
EDGES CLOSER...WE LOOSE THE STRONG WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL...AND THIS
APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AS CPW IS ONLY GUSTING TO 25 KTS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
30 TO 40 MPH BEFORE DECREASING TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER THE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA...AND VIS IN WEB CAM UP
AT CPW HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD SINCE MIDNIGHT.  THUS WILL CONVERT THE
BLIZZARD WARNING BACK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE.  WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN
CHAFFEE AND LAKE COUNTIES THROUGH TODAY...AS THIS AREA WILL ALSO
PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SAWATCH RANGE.  A LITTLE LESS
CERTAINTY EXISTS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY...BUT NAM DOES
SPREAD ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW ACROSS LAKE COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
ITS WORTH EXTENDING THE WARNINGS FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT.  WILL TAKE DOWN THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...FREMONT AND TELLER
COUNTIES...WET MOUNTAINS...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING.  HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AS RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS LA VETA
PASS AND THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
THROUGH LATE MORNING.  WILL ALSO MAINTAIN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH SUSPECT THESE MAY
BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN BY 18Z AS MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE SNOW
ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS MONITOR THIS STATUS AND MAKE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARM UP.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS.  H7 TEMPS
ACTUALLY WARM TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW OUT WEST...SO
WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.  STILL LOOKING AT MID 20S TO AROUND 30 GIVEN
ALL THE SNOW COVER.  CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SNOW PACK. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN AZ TUE MORNING...STILL PUSHING SNOW
UP INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE STATE AND INTO THE SW MTS. THIS LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST INTO NM THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE AFTN...THEN
BECOMES DRY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO TX OVERNIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
ROCKY MT REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH TUE AND WED TO BE RIGHT
AROUND 40F FOR THE PLAINS...20S TO MID 30S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN
INTO THE ROCKY MT REGION STARTING WED NIGHT...AND THIS USHERS IN A
VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE STATE. NUMEROUS UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO LINE UP...BRINGING COLD AIR AND MORE PCPN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH THU AND FRI ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 20S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY AS A
STRONGER UPPER LOW TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...PROVIDING FOR A MORE SW FLOW ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND FOR
THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A CONTINUED SHOT
FOR PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CONT DVD. AIR TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F FOR THE PLAINS AND
SLV...AND IN THE 20S FOR THE MTS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW THRU THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
AND VSBYS WL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT OTHER TIMES. TONIGHT THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN IFR OR
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WL REMAIN THAT WAY
INTO AT LEAST MIDMORNING TUESDAY.

SE WINDS AT KCOS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CIGS LOW THRU THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KPUB SHOULD GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS WL STILL BE IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ072>075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ069>071.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ058>061-064>067.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28


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