Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161044
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
444 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 444 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Currently...

Weak disturbance in zonal flow aloft combined with weak post frontal
upslope allowing for a few showers/isold -TSRA over east central
Colorado at 3 am. Over the remainder of the region it was dry. With
weak upslope over the plains, dwpts have recovered a bit with 30s
along the I-25 corridor and near 40F near the KS border. Some mid
lvl cloudiness was over the plains. temps were generally in teh U40s
along the I-25 corridor with 50s farther east. In the valleys it was
in the 20s and 30s with 20s mainly in the mtns.

Today and tonight...

Will likely see some cigs develop over the far eastern plains early
this morning as sat pix show clouds over W KS advecting towards CO.
These clouds will last into mid to late morning. A few isold light
showers will be possible over the far se sections of the plains.

Weak ripples embedded in the modest zonal flow aloft combined with
the upslope flow and CAPE values of 500-1000 J/KG will allow for
some isold tsra to develop on the east facing slopes of the mtns.
given the forcing will be coming out of the mtns later this
afternoon, expect the limited activity will initiate around 4 pm and
move east across the plains this evening. Cant rule out a stronger
storm or two given the favorable marginal shear and CAPE values
which will be over the region during maximum heating.

Activity, albeit isold, is expected to last into late evening as it
moves across the far eastern plains.

Late tonight, expect low cigs to develop along with some areas of
fog possible. These low cloud are expected to make it all the way to
the east facing slopes of the S mtns. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Monday-Wednesday...Moderate to strong westerly flow aloft progged
across the region with embedded waves progged to move across the
area through the period. One embedded wave moves across the Rockies
Monday night with another embedded wave moving through the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday. These passing waves progged to send
weak fronts across the plains Monday night and Wednesday night,
allowing for a few possible shra/trsa across the plains with
moisture pooling along and behind the fronts. Otherwise, there will
be chances of light rain and snow showers associated with the
passing waves across the higher terrain along the ContDvd,
especially the eastern Sawatch and western Mosquito Ranges, where a
few inches of snow will be possible over the peaks. Will also see
breezy conditions over the higher terrain and at times across the
lower elevations, with temperatures at or above seasonal levels
through the period.

Thursday-Saturday...Another strong spring storm system takes aim on
the area Thursday and Friday, with the latest models, as expected,
showing differences on its track. The 1600Z run of the Canadian is
the least impactful for southern Colorado, as it is the furthest
north with developing a closed low across the southeast plains on
Friday, which then continues to lift north and east into the central
high plains Friday night and Saturday. The latest EC has gone back
to its solution of a few days ago, and is similar to the Canadian,
though moves the closed low across the southeast plains Friday more
due east into western Kansas Friday night and Saturday. The 1600Z
GFS was back to digging the system into the four corners region and
slowly lifting it out across northern New Mexico Friday and Friday
night, however, the 06Z GFS run and the 00Z GFS ensemble data remain
faster and less amplified with the system. This storm system is
still developing in the eastern Pacific and its track will likely
continue to fluctuate until it gets closer to the West Coast later
this week. However, it certainly could produce another round of
moderate to heavy rain and higher elevation snowfall across the
area, and those planning travel across south central and southeast
Colorado Thursday and Friday should stay abreast of the forecast
with this potentially high impact storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 444 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

VFR conditions are likely today and this evening at all 3 TAF sites,
KPUB, KALS and KCOS. There will be a slight chance of some thunder
at KCOS and KPUB late this afternoon and early evening.

Late tonight lower cigs will be possible at KCOS and KPUB  with
MVFR/IFr possible. Cant rule out some fog possible, especially at
KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH



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