Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 152138
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

Dew points have plummeted across the mountains and adjacent
plains this afternoon...however a brief shift to a more southerly
component is advecting lower 50 dew points back into the far
southeast plains.  This is still the favored area for isolated
strong to severe convection this afternoon through early evening. In
fact by 00z...most of the activity is predicted by HRRR to shift
eastward into KS as dry line mixes eastward.  MLCape will be running
around 20000 J/kg across Baca and southeast Prowers County initially
and with deep layer shears around 35 kts could certainly see a
severe storm or two with main threats large hail and damaging winds.
Threat will end by mid evening.

Some cooling aloft noted tonight so temperatures in the mountains
should be slightly cooler than last night.  Meanwhile...westerly
downslope winds along the I-25 corridor should keep the usual warm
pockets on the warm side of guidance.

For Tuesday...closed low over AZ will fill and lift northeast across
CO during the afternoon.  Lee trof strengthens and kicks eastward in
response with a windy day in store across much of the area.  Given
the moist fuels...conditions are not deemed critical by land
management agencies for a fire weather watch or red flag
warning...but certainly meteorological conditions will be meeting
criteria.  Some moisture accompanies the system...though from model
soundings it is all very high based.  Some isolated to scattered
high based showers and thunderstorms will be possible...mainly over
and near the mountains where gusty winds and lightning will be the
primary storm threats.  meanwhile...timing of the eastward
progression of the sfc trof axis washes out dew points and keeps
severe threat to the east of the area during the late afternoon and
evening. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

...Cooler and unsettled weather pattern expected for mid week
and beyond...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Latest models in good agreement of old
upper low across the Desert SW weakening as is ejects across
southeast Colorado Tuesday night, with brief short wave ridging
across the area early Wednesday as next system digs into the
Northern Great Basin through Wednesday afternoon. Should see a
isolated to scattered showers and a few embedded storms, associated
with the passing wave, spreading east across the mountains through
the eastern plains Tuesday evening, with a frontal boundary pushing
through the plains into early Wednesday morning. Will see increasing
chances of precipitation across the higher elevations along and west
of the ContDvd late Wednesday morning, with a few showers spreading
east across the high valleys through the eastern mountains into the
afternoon.

Wednesday night-Friday night...Again, models in decent agreement of
closed upper low across the Northern Great Basin on Wednesday,
slowly lifting out across the region through the day Friday. The
movement of this system will bring periods of rain and snow to much
of south central and southeast Colorado through the period, with
widespread precipitation across the Contdvd late Wednesday afternoon
spreading east across the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Best
pops to remain over and near the higher terrain Wednesday night,
with another cold front pushing south and east across the plains
Thursday morning. This system looks to be cold enough to bring snow
levels down to between 7000-8000 feet Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning, and may need late season winter weather advisories
for the higher terrain, especially across the Central Mountains
through the Pike Peak region.  Another spoke of energy digs across
the area on Thursday. with an elongated upper trough progged to
slowly lift out across the region Thursday night and Friday. This
will keep chances of rain and snow showers across the area through
Friday afternoon/evening. Temperatures below seasonal levels can be
expected through this period.

Saturday-Monday...A cool northwesterly flow pattern develops across
the region into early next week, keeping chances of showers in place
across the region, especially over and near the higher terrain, with
temperatures expected to be at or below seasonal levels through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

VFR conditions expected at the taf sites over the next 24 hours.
Gusty south to southwest winds will decrease at all three terminals
by 02-03z.  Best threat of any thunderstorms will be well off to the
east of KCOS and KPUB through this evening.  On Tuesday...should see
some increasing mid/high cloudiness with VFR cigs and virga possible
in the afternoon.  Erratic gusty winds will be the main threat with
these...with this risk a possibility at all three terminals during
the afternoon and early evening.  Otherwise should see gusty
southwest winds increase at all three terminals during the afternoon
with gusts to around 30 kts possible.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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