Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

000
FXUS65 KPUB 100533
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 PM MST Tue Jan 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM MST Tue Jan 9 2018

Currently...upper level low moving onshore across Srn California
this afternoon with increasing sw flow across Colorado. Have already
reached record maxes at Colorado Springs and Alamosa, with Pueblo
just a couple degf short as of 22z. Have even seen a few lower 70s
in better mixed locations east of the mountains, including Canon
City and Walsenburg. Warm temps have also been aided by a break in
the high level cloud shield across the region, with only some mid
level cloudiness lingering over the higher peaks of the Continental
Divide .

Tonight...Upper low moves onshore and into AZ by early Wed morning,
with snow developing after 06z over the San Juans as mid level flow
becomes swly and increases to 25-35 kts by 12z. Farther north along
the Continental Divide, accumulating snow will be later to develop,
and only some flurries/light snow are expected through sunrise.
Remainder of the area will see only increasing clouds and very mild
overnight lows as mild air remains in place under moderate
swly flow.

Wednesday...Upper low moves eastward from AZ into ern NM by late
afternoon, spreading a quick round strong upward motion across the
area through the day. Focus for heaviest snow remains along the
Continental Divide during the morning, with areas from Monarch Pass
northward favored by afternoon as mid level flow becomes more wly.
Interior valleys will see a mix of rain and snow showers through the
day, with gradually falling snow levels toward valley floors by late
afternoon. Peaks of the Sangres/Wets/Pikes Peak may not see much if
any snow until afternoon, when band of stronger forcing with the
cold front finally pushes eastward. Overall, current set of
highlights looks good, and made only slight adjustments to snow
amounts and pops over the higher terrain. Over the I-25 corridor and
plains, we`ll likely remain warm and breezy into the afternoon,
waiting for the cold front to arrive in the 21z-00z time frame.
Could see some sprinkles/virga ahead of the boundary 18z-21z, with
better chance for precip (mainly rain) behind the front toward 00z.
Even eastern mountains could start as rain, as snow levels don`t
begin to fall much below 8000 feet until after 21z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM MST Tue Jan 9 2018

Primary longer term issue continues to be the amount of impact
that passing system provides the forecast district into Wednesday
night with meteorological concerns being winds, pops/snow
amounts/areas of blowing snow and temperatures.

Recent longer term PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast
model soundings indicate that dynamic closed upper low located
over northeastern New Mexico at 00Z Thursday will be shifting into
southwestern Kansas by 06Z Thursday and then weaken/move well
east of the forecast district by noon Thursday.

Healthy cold northerly surface surge is expected to be entering
northern sections of the forecast district by 00Z Thursday and
then rapidly advance into east-central New Mexico by 06Z Thursday.

Additional accumulating snow and blowing snow is expected to
continue over Continental Divide locations as well as the Sangre
de Cristo mountains into Wednesday night and will maintain
existing winter weather highlights into Wednesday night for these
locations.

In addition, the potential exists for accumulating precipitation(moderate
intensity at times) initially in the form of rain(due to previous
warm Wednesday afternoon temperatures) over eastern
sections(favoring locations generally along and east of Interstate
25) from late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening,
with the potential for some snow and blowing snow(as surface wind
gusts near 50 mph at times and colder air settles in) then
developing from Wednesday evening to shortly after midnight(favoring
the southeastern Colorado plains). Have trended recently issued
grids/zones this direction and have also introduced blowing snow
potential over many eastern locations Wednesday evening/night. As
always, WFO Pueblo will closely monitor the latest trends, track
and strength of this incoming system closely.

Then, it still appears that outside of the central mountains(where
snow will be possible at times) that more tranquil meteorological
conditions will be noted over the forecast district from later
Thursday into next Tuesday with gusty winds experienced at times,
although some model solutions do suggest that elevated pops will
be possible over far eastern locations later Friday night and over
many forecast district locations from Monday into Monday night.

At this time, it appears that coolest temperatures over the
majority of the forecast district during the longer term should
be realized Thursday and Monday, while warmest conditions should
be noted Friday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1029 PM MST Tue Jan 9 2018

...Strong cold front moving through tomorrow afternoon...

Overall, VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours across
all 3 taf sites. Some light rain/snow showers along with possibly
brief mvfr conditions could occur at KALS and KCOS late tomorrow
afternoon and early evening as a cold front move through. The main
issue tomorrow will be strong northerly winds developing by mid/late
afternoon and lasting into the evening, especially at KCOS and
KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Wednesday night for
COZ066.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST Wednesday night for
COZ068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ058-060.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM MST Wednesday for
COZ073-075.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HODANISH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.