Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 261039
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
439 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AS AN ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
IS LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THIS
TIME. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONT TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING IS KEEPING BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW PROGGED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONTDVD LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...COULD SEE A FEW DEFORMATION SHOWERS OR STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...GENERALLY AOA 10K
FT...THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD SEE
SOME SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN DOWN TO AROUND 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES TO BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
AOA 9K FEET...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTS.

BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH RECENT RAINS...FUELS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT DEEMED CRITICAL. MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK WARM UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
WILL COOL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COOLING ALOFT SPREADS EAST. THE
PASSING SYSTEM WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 40 MPH IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS SUBSIDE
AFTER FROPA. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS
LOOKS TO BE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPPER LOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON WED AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO WED NIGHT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE AND
INTENSITY WEAK AS STRONGER UPWARD MOTION IS STILL WEST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WED WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS
HEIGHTS BUILD...WHILE PLAINS SEE MINOR COOLING AS NORTH WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.

UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT...THEN TRACKS
FROM SRN NV THU MORNING TO A POSITION NEAR THE 4 CORNERS BY FRI
MORNING. SHOULD SEE PRECIP GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS DURING THE DAY THU AS UPWARD MOTION
SPREADS EASTWARD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS BY
THU EVENING AS LOW TRUDGES ACROSS NRN AZ. INSTABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD TSRA LOOKS LACKING...THOUGH POSITIVE CAPES IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVEL STARTS FAIRLY HIGH (10K FEET)
DURING THE DAY THU...THEN FALLS THU NIGHT AS COLDER AIR AT MID
LEVELS SPREADS EASTWARD. MOST 00Z/26 MODELS THEN SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO THU NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRI...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSRA AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MOST MOUNTAINS
ABOVE ABOUT 9K FEET. PIKES PEAK LOOKS ESPECIALLY HARD HIT...WITH
PERHAPS 2+ FEET OF SNOW AT THE SUMMIT BY FRI EVENING.

WILDCARD IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO WOULD BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD WOBBLE
IN THE LOW TRACK DURING THE DAY FRI...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND SHUT DOWN PRECIP
FAIRLY QUICKLY FRI AFTERNOON. WHILE 00Z/26 MODELS KEPT THE DRY
SLOT SOUTH...QUICK PEEK AT 06Z NAM/GFS SUGGESTS MUCH LESS PRECIP
OVER THE PLAINS AS LOW DRIFTS NORTH AND DRY AIR SHUTS DOWN
RAINFALL BY FRI AFTERNOON. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE BETTER
CONTINUITY OF THE 00Z RUNS AT THIS POINT...WITH WIDESPREAD QPF OF
AT LEAST AN INCH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE INITIAL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST LATE FRI...RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS POSSIBLE FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...THOUGH GIVEN RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP MOST LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUN INTO MON...KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES GOING
ALL AREAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A GRADUAL DRYING/WARMING
TREND BEGINS TUE. MAX TEMPS MAX TEMPS FRI THROUGH MON WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP LINGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT COS AND PUB EARLY THIS MORNING TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DRIFT OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND LOCALLY ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO
35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR -TSRA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 00Z...BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AT TIMES FOR BOTH KCOS AND
KPUB BETWEEN 03Z-06Z WHICH COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



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