Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 121057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
457 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE
POPS(INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL)...TEMPERATURES...
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATER TODAY AND TIMING OF
NORTHERLY SURGE LATER TONIGHT.

CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS IN COMBINATION WITH WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MID-APRIL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH...PRIMARILY OVER SELECT
WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPACTING CWFA(WITH INCREASED POPS)IS
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER
UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING(PLEASE SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS
ON THIS SYSTEM).

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

IN ADDITION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

ALSO...NORTHERLY SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA BY LATER TONIGHT.  FINALLY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE PROJECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT STORM LIKELY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS STORM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT TERRAIN
WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW AND COLD WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE NAM12 AND GFS40...THE GENERAL PICTURE IS FOR
RAIN...SNOW...AND BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND
SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT TERRAIN IN THE WEST. THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM EARLY MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW 0
CELSIUS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...TELLER COUNTY...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
MOUNTAINS AND WET MOUNTAINS AND SPANISH PEAKS. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR IN THE ADJACENT HIGHER VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF TELLER
COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAINS...SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND THE SPANISH
PEAKS. THE WILD CARD THIS TIME OF YEAR IS THE WARMTH OF THE
VARIOUS SURFACES THAT THE SNOW FALLS ON. IF THE SNOW IS HEAVY
ENOUGH IT WILL EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATE ON SOME OF THE
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO EXPECT SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME MODERATE TO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...CAUSING TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...FROM FREMONT PASS TO WOLF CREEK PASS.

MONDAY...IT WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL...BUT DRY...AS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A RECOVERY...AND SOME AREAS
WILL HAVE DEEP SNOW TO CONTEND WITH...SQUASHING ANY HOPE FOR A
QUICK WARM UP.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER...BRINGING DRY AND MILD WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...50S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 30S TO 40S
MOUNTAINS.

LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE
DIFFERENT...BUT BECOMING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT SYSTEM.
PREVIOUSLY GFS HAD A DEEP...CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAD AN OPEN WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. NOW THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION.
SO...THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE GUIDANCE IS LOOKING BETTER...WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN...AND SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WE SHALL
SEE. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 457 AM SAT APR 12 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 10Z SUNDAY AT KCOS...IN WAKE OF NORTHERLY SURGE.  IN
ADDITION...GENERALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR COZ058-060-061-072>075-079>082-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...77



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