Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 110848
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
348 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 347 AM CDT WED OCT 11 2017

Temperatures are still forecast to cool into the 30s in far
northwest MO and northeast KS, which could result in isolated
frost. Areas still under the this low level stratus should remain
in the 40s. The stratus deck will begin to slowly scatter out
late this morning from west to east, as the surface high settles
in advecting drier air into the area. Temperatures should warm
into the low 60s today where the clouds clear and upper 50s where
they don`t. Tonight, the surface high will slide east across
region and we will start to transition into the warm sector of a
surface low developing over the Rockies. This will warm
temperatures into the low to mid 70s on Thursday and 80s on
Friday.

At the upper levels, the ridging will also move east and will be
amplified by high pressure that has been sitting over the
southwestern U.S.. This in conjunction with an upper level trough
over the Pacific Northwest, will put us under southwesterly flow.
At the surface, the low and attendant cold front will move into the
area Friday, and will be the focus point for the weekend storms. The
surface system will stall across northern MO and northeast KS
Friday night due to the upper level high postponing the arrival of
the Pacific Northwest trough. The 850 mb LLJ will ramp up Friday
night into Saturday creating storm chances near the front (mainly
along and north of I-70). Saturday, storm chances continue as the
stalled boundary lifts north into southern IA as a warm front.
Also during the day Saturday, the 850 mb LLJ will still be fairly
strong and the upper level trough will be approaching, providing
additional upper level support. This set up raises a few concerns
for our area. First, strong to severe storms are possible Saturday
afternoon and evening with deep layer shear being around 45-50
kts and SB CAPE around 1500 J/kg. The main concerns right now are
isolated large hail and damaging winds. The second concern is
flooding. PWAT values are forecast to be between 1.5 and 2 inches,
which is very high for this time of year. This in addition to the
stationary nature of the front could lead to flash flooding and
river flooding.


Saturday night, the upper level trough will provide the necessary
push to finally move the cold front through the area. Storms will
move with the front and should exit our entire area by Sunday
evening. There is still some disagreement among the GFS and ECMWF
regarding timing of the frontal passage, (the ECMWF is a little
slower) but in general, there is good consensus so far about this
weekends system. A surface high and upper level ridging will move
in behind the system, keeping us dry and returning temperatures
to the 60s and 70s for the first part of next week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2017

MVFR ceiling heights will persist well into the overnight hours,
and cannot rule out brief periods of IFR ceilings. As surface
temperatures continue to cool and winds slacken, visibilities may
be slightly degraded to MVFR conditions, particularly just before
sunrise. Low-level stratus will begin to erode and advect
eastward by the mid-morning Wednesday with steadily improving
conditions expected heading into the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Welsh



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