Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 102340

640 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

As of early afternoon, the cold front has pushed across much of the
CWA and will be clear of the CWA by late this afternoon. A few light
showers continue to develop along this frontal zone as it moves
southward. A few thunderstorms may be possible along and ahead of the
front as destabilization occurs across portions of southwest MO and
up through central MO. This area could be distinguished earlier on
satellite as an area of relative clearing, however, moisture pooling
along the frontal boundary where are area of low stratus and some
cumulus has quickly developed ahead of the front.

Behind this front, cooler air will filter into the region and rain
chances will quickly diminish as slight ridging develops across the
Central Plains. Cloudy skies will remain entrenched across the area
through late tomorrow morning before mixing out by early afternoon.
Afternoon temperatures will definitely feel more fall-like with
highs topping out in the 60s. These below normal temperatures will
continue through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as a
vigorous, positively tilted trough will begin to translate across
the Northern Plains by Thursday night. This system will bring our next
chance precipitation to the region Thursday night into Friday
morning. Precipitable water values are progged to be close to one
inch across portions of northwest and north-central MO indicating a
better chance that some locations may see a period of heavy rainfall
as this system moves through. A few light rain showers will continue
through the day Friday.

Much cooler temperatures will settle into the Central Plains as a
significant surface high moves in behind this trough. By Saturday
morning, temperatures will definitely be fall-like as temperatures
drop into the upper 30s to low 40s and thoughts of moving sensitive
plants indoors begins.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

Later half of the forecast --the weekend and into next work week--
remains dominated by conditions more like early fall than late
summer. Medium range models continue to advertise a run of well
below normal temperatures through next week as they continue to
advertise persistence in East Coast negative and West Coast positive
height anomalies, leaving the Central Plains under a cool northwest
flow. Current expectations are that this will keep highs limited to
the 70s through the first half of the next week with overnight lows
in the 50s.

As for precipitation...reinforcing the eastern CONUS trough late in
the weekend will be a longwave trough that is expected to swing
through the northern and central Plains Sunday into Monday. The
associated nocturnal jet and surface front justifies keeping a
chance of POPs for Sunday night into at least Monday, with a
persistent on-again-off-again rain chance through at least Wednesday
of next week with each little perturbation withing the northwest


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

MVFR conditions will persist tonight as low cigs still in central
plains behind front that moved through last night and today. Current
satellite and model data show ample moisture well back into the
dakotas. Expecting a lowering of the stratus deck to IFR around 09 UTC
with some light ground fog as well...given the saturated soil
conditions. After sunrise the cigs should lift and surface high will
settle over the region bringing VFR conditions for the remainder of
the period.




LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Adolphson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.