Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1119 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR expected to continue. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are
expected through mid-afternoon before wind speeds relax prior to
sunset. Wind direction will gradually veer with time. Fog potential
looks to reside well to the north and east of TAF sites overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair






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