Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 131736
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2017

As the front currently across SE Nebraska inches closer to NW
Missouri early this morning, won`t see much out of it other than
thickening mid-level clouds, as evidenced on satellite. However,
as better dynamical support moves in behind the front, could see a
few sprinkles or light rain showers pop-up through ~dawn across
portions of northern MO with the limiting factor being
insufficient LL moisture. As for the remainder of today, looks to
remain largely dry as the front slows and eventually briefly
stalls across the forecast area. This will provide the focus for
precip to potentially fire up later tonight as the LL jet cranks
up and moisture continues to advect into the area. By Saturday
morning, could see scattered thunderstorms across the northern
two-thirds of the forecast area, with thunderstorm chances
spreading and increasing as the day progresses. These
thunderstorms will evolve into a line that will then march through
Saturday evening into the overnight hours along and ahead of a
surface cold front that will have plenty of support from an upper
trough rotating through the Plains. Once the storms clear the area
early Sunday morning (should be out by ~12Z), look for much drier
air and high pressure to settle in, leaving a rather benign
forecast period afterward.

Despite convection that may be in the area Saturday morning,
sufficiently available instability for this time of year, coupled
with copious amounts of moisture (PWATs surge to well above
climatological normals), and plentiful shear values will combine
to create a dynamic strong to severe weather threat Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night. Currently, the greatest severe
weather concern will be strong to perhaps damaging winds, but hail
and a tornado or two look to be plausible as well. Indications
are pointing to a QLCS setting up Saturday evening, not unlike
what this region is typically used to seeing, with some embedded
vortices possible given the conducive parameters that appear to be
coming together. In other words, while there is increasing
confidence in the setup we`ll see late Saturday, stay tuned as
this time period gets closer as it is still possible to see some
deviations in this forecast.

While we`re currently in the middle of a temperature swing and a
rather tight temp gradient occurring later today, the well-above
normal temps for mid-October will plummet to below normal by
Sunday behind the aforementioned fropa late Saturday/early Sunday.
For next week, temps look to moderate, lingering near normal for
the early part of the week, then slowly creeping back up a few
degrees above normal by the middle of the week. In other words,
enjoy the soon-to-be-here fall temps and weather once we get
passed the severe weather potential tomorrow night.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 13 2017

The frontal boundary is nearly stationary from northwestern MO
into south central KS. North of the front MVFR to IFR ceilings are
present. South of the front, scattered cumulus may develop this
afternoon. As the front slowly moves south this evening, there may
be trend to fill this cloud deck and then potentially lower
ceilings to MVFR. Confidence in this is highest at STJ and MCI,
where the front is more likely to encroach upon this evening and
tonight. The front should lift back north late in the morning and
with ceilings raising. The best chances for precipitation will
come after this forecast. But it`s possible some drizzle or light
showers may work into the STJ or even as far south as MCI terminal
this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...CDB



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