Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250822

322 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Thunderstorms should gradually clear the area through the morning,
although clouds and outflow boundaries left behind from this activity
will make temperature forecasts a challenge today. 850 hPa
temperatures will be similar to yesterday which would again favor
temperatures in the middle/upper 90s if the sun were to shine most of
the afternoon. However, unlike yesterday, rather thick upper-level
clouds extend back into Colorado and New Mexico, and these clouds should
keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Friday. Still, humidity
will remain oppressive so it shouldn`t be hard to get heat index
values near or exceeding 105 especially near and south of the
Missouri River where more sun will peek through. Will therefore
continue with the heat advisory for these areas. Some areas near
Butler and Clinton could even rise into heat warning criteria (heat
index 110) if the sun can stay out most of the day but confidence
isn`t high enough on this to issue a warning.

A weak upper wave will track into the Mid Missouri Valley this
evening and will likely spark another round of thunderstorms. In fact
with outflow boundaries draped across the region, storms could fire
as early as early/mid afternoon as the atmosphere becomes moderately
to strongly unstable. Better chances for more organized/widespread
storms will arrive near and after sunset as the LLJ redevelops and
noses into northwest Missouri, possibly interacting with one or more
remnant boundaries. This set up could lead to some heavy rainfall
somewhere across northeast KS into northern MO, but models are
struggling to resolve where the better forcing/heavy rain potential
may be. Therefore opted to not issue a flash flood watch at this
time, but one may need to be considered if models can determine
if/where heavy rain is likely to fall. For now the highest threat for
this heavy rain appears to be over northwest MO, but it`s possible
the presence of these outflow boundaries could shift it further
south. In addition to the heavy rain threat, hot/moist surface
conditions combined with dry/cool air aloft will support damaging
winds with the strongest storms this afternoon and tonight.

By Sunday subtle height rises should shift the storm track further
north and east into northeast Missouri and points northeast of there,
and by Monday and Tuesday dry weather will build into the entire area.
This will also allow hot and humid conditions to continue across
eastern KS and western MO Sunday and Monday, spreading into the
entire area by Tuesday. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday look to
be in the middle 90s across these areas with heat index values
probably exceeding 105. Will likely need to consider additional heat
advisories for these periods, possibly even warnings.

A weak front on Wednesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures for
the rest of the week with highs in the upper 80s. A few storms may
accompany the front Wednesday and Wednesday night, but the better
forcing and storm chances will be to our north.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Main focus for overnight convection remains across northern MO. One
small cluster tracking from northwest into north central MO will
likely be followed by a much larger convective system which could
yield very heavy rainfall. VFR ceilings except within the
thunderstorm complexes where MVFR ceilings and localized IFR
visibilities will be encountered with gusts in the 40-45kt range.
Except for KSTJ the terminals over west central MO will likely miss
most if not all the rain overnight.

Where convective boundaries end up Saturday morning will go a long
ways in determining where later afternoon and evening convection
develops. Currently thinking northern MO will once again be the
primary region for storms. Will leave all but KSTJ terminals dry with
VFR conditions.


KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-029-037>040-



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