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000
FXUS63 KEAX 140845
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 AM CDT Tue May 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

Today: Broad upper ridge over the central CONUS is being flattened
by a shortwave driving east across the southern plains of
Canada. Broad surface troughing occurring east of the Rockies with
southerly winds allowing warm air to cover an expanding region east
of the Rockies. Yesterday saw high temperatures soar into the 90s from
the TX/OK Panhandles to the Dakotas and this airmass is heading our
way today. So, good shot of seeing record highs tied/exceeded today
at Kansas City (91F) and St. Joseph (93F) as a hot elevated mixed
layer spreads across the CWA. Broad westerly flow at h8 and surface
winds veering/increasing from the southwest will ensure this hot/dry
air will mix down to the surface. Models have a known wet bias this
Spring with respect to the surface dewpoints. Modelers are aware and
working on the problem. So have significantly undercut model dewpoint
guidance during daylight hours.

A weak surface front will slide south into southern NE/IA tonight
and stall. scatted convection possible along this front but expect
CWA to be dry through tonight.

Wednesday/Thursday night: The southern IA/NE frontal boundary will
slowly sink south into northern MO on Wednesday and likely stall
again as the upper flow becomes zonal while a closed upper low over
northern Mexico opens up and ejects northeast through OK. This
latter feature will also aid in holding the frontal boundary in place
over northern MO through Wednesday night. Instability will be
increasing through the day as low level moisture ramps up (have
discounted the model wet biased dewpoints) and expect to see
scattered convection form mainly along/north of the stalled front
during the afternoon and evening hours. However, poor 0-6 km shear
greatly lowers the risk of severe storms. Will focus highest PoPs
near the frontal boundary. The above mentioned ejecting upper low may
also yield some afternoon/evening convection spreading northeast into the
southern CWA.

While the CWA will remain within the warm sector Wednesday and
Thursday the elevated warm layer will have modified some plus cloud
cover and any convection will yield somewhat cooler temperatures,
but sill remain above average for both Wednesday and Thursday.

The stalled front will continue to be the main focus for convection
through Thursday night. An upper level disturbance crossing CO and
KS Thursday could generate another round of convection Thursday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

Thunderstorm chances will gradually taper off from late Friday night
into early Saturday as a shortwave trough exits the region to the
northeast, leaving behind weak ridging across the eastern Plains.
Once that shortwave trough passes, the main story will be a longwave
trough digging into the Intermountain West and eventually ejecting
eastward into the Plains by this weekend. Current runs of the EC and
GFS are handling the trough a bit differently as it heads east, with
the EC bringing a secondary upper low around the backside of the
trough, giving it a little less of a negative tilt and also slowing
its progression out into the Plains. Regardless of timing, the
general pattern is the same in the extended: a small chance of some
isolated thunderstorms the in broad warm sector on Saturday into
Saturday night, and again on Sunday afternoon. Sometime Sunday night
or early Monday, a surface low lifting out of the High Plains will
bring a surface cold front through the forecast area, which should
fuel a better chance of thunderstorms for Sunday, possibly extending
into Monday. For now, have still kept the chance of precipitation
below likely for the majority of the area, due to the temporal
differences in the models. Things should start clearing out by late
Monday into early Tuesday as the main trough pushes through and the
surface low lifts into the Great Lakes region.

Temperatures should hover a few degrees above normal this weekend
with southwest flow aloft and increasing southerly surface flow
helping temperatures to rise into the upper 70`s to mid 80`s. Behind
the surface cold front, highs should still be mild in the upper 60`s
and 70`s, with the chilliest air remaining closer to the surface low
over northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds will
become strong by mid-morning and persist through the period. Gusts
between 25 to 30 kts will be possible during the afternoon. May see
some low-level wind shear concerns early this morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

see reference under Short Term noting lower/drier dewpoints than
model guidance. The combo of afternoon humidities sub 25%, surface
winds around 20 mph and borderline 10 hour dead fuel moisture will
result in a heightened fire danger this afternoon. We are past our
normal period of issuing a red flag warning and given the very
green/wet fine fuels we will not be issuing a red flag warning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...MJ