Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161724
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1124 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 347 AM CST THU FEB 16 2017

The main concern today will be the extreme fire danger (see fire
weather discussion). As such, a Red flag Warning is in effect from
late this morning into this evening. The main story will be
temperatures some 25-30 degrees above normal for today through the
weekend. For today, relatively deep mixing to about 900mb will allow
temperatures to warm into the 60s to lower 70s with strong
southwesterly winds of 15 to 25mph with gusts to 30mph. Conditions
will be similar Friday however, winds should be a bit lighter as we
do not mix as deep and relative humidity should be on the increase.
However, continued southwest flow at the surface couple with a upper
level ridge axis building directly over the region should still
allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Saturday
the upper level ridge flattens across the area as a closed upper low
passes just south of the area and a quick shortwave trough moves
across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
on Saturday but well above normal with highs still in the mid to
upper 60s. Sunday, the upper level ridge quickly rebuilds into the
region in response to a upper level trough digging into the
southwestern CONUS.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Sunday night as the
upper level trough moves into the southern High Plains. Gulf
moisture will stream north ahead of this system and bring warm air
advection showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to the area.
Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue on Monday
into Monday night as a closed low develops in the base of the upper
level trough and it moves across Texas. Temperatures will still
remain in the mid to upper 60s on Monday despite likely rain
chances. Conditions should again dry out for Tuesday and Wednesday
as the closed upper low passes south of the area. Zonal flow aloft
across the area will still keep temperatures mild through this
period with highs in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST THU FEB 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty
southwesterly winds this afternoon will diminish this evening and
remain southwesterly through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 347 AM CST THU FEB 16 2017

Extreme fire weather danger is expected today as deep mixing to
900mb will aid temperatures to soar into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Couple this with recent dry conditions, 10-hour fuel moistures
around 9%, and relative humidity values dropping into the 20 to
25 percent range and fire danger will be extreme. If there is a
limiting factor to this fire weather day it may be the winds as
models keep winds below red flag criteria. However, models have
been under forecasting winds recently and if we mix to 900mb as
model soundings suggest we will experience southwest winds of
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph which will put us easily in Red
Flag Warning conditions. This scenario has also been supported by
recent hi-res short term models. Fire danger will decrease this
evening as winds weaken and relative humidity values increase.
Fire danger will again be very high tomorrow however, mixing does
not appear as deep as today which should lead to lighter winds.
Also, relative humidity values will not be as low tomorrow and
should remain in the 30 to 35 percent range. Consequently, red
flag conditions for Friday are not expected at this time however,
conditions will need to continue to be monitored.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...CDB
Fire Weather...73



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