Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251101
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
601 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

There are several concerns in the short-term as this morning
flooding is currently ongoing across Putnam, Schuyler and Adair
counties as storms have been training over those locations through
the overnight hours. Radar estimates suggest that 4 to 6 inches have
fallen across those areas and several area roads have been
reported as flooded. These showers and storms should finally weaken
and shift east by mid morning as the LLJ that fueled this
precipitation will weaken and veer.

For the remainder of today, conditions should remain dry however, a
cold front will be sinking slowly south across the CWA. There is a
potential for a subtle shortwave to ignite convection briefly late
this morning along the front. The best potential for precipitation
however, will come beginning late this afternoon/evening as a
vigorous shortwave moves into the area. Warm temperatures south of
the front in the upper 80s to mid 90s will provide for strong late
afternoon instability. Strong instability, along with steep lapse
rates, and extremely moist conditions with dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s will lead to severe potential. With generally weak shear,
the main mode of severe weather is expected to be in the form of
hail. The bigger concern however, may come later tonight when a
35-45kt LLJ increases and storms grow upscale into an MCS that
will develop over the CWA. Strong moisture convergence along the
slow moving front, and PWATs ranging from 2.00"-2.25" suggest heavy
and prolonged rain is likely. Most of the CWA may receive
precipitation between 2"-4" with locally heavier amounts under
heavier and training storms. As such, a flash flood watch has been
issued for the entire CWA from 00Z Friday until 18Z Friday. Heavy
showers and thunderstorms will continue across the southern CWA
(along the front) through Friday morning. This precipitation will
finally push south of the area by Friday night as a deepening upper
level trough digs through the Upper Midwest and force the front
south of the area. Conditions should be cooler on Friday with highs
in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

A surface ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
on Friday night drying conditions out. This surface ridge will
remain over the area through Saturday with strong northerly flow
aloft. This will make for very pleasant temperatures on Saturday
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLATTED TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW DEVELOPING SHWRS AND
STORMS ALONG THE FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES...AND QUICK LOOK AT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY EARLY
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN AND PROVIDING DRIER WEATHER FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHWRS/STORMS AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA. DESPITE BEING ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE FRONT...HIGH
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ON MONDAY...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

VFR conds should cont thru the first 12 hours of this TAF cycle as
mainly sct to bkn cirrus clouds are expected this morning before sct
cu may develop around 5kft this afternoon. The main concern for
aviators will come this evening into tonight has several round of
thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected at the terminals after
01Z. These thunderstorms may reduce vsbys to 3SM or less in heavy
rain although cigs should remain VFR around 4-5kft. These storms will
be prolonged and are expected to persist thru the remainder of the
TAF period. This morning a cold front reside across northwestern MO.
This front will sink slowly south thru STJ later this morning veer
winds from the southwest to the northwest. The rest of the terminals
winds should stay out of the southwest this morning becoming more
westerly this afternoon as the front slowly approaches. The front is
not expected too push thru the terminals until tonight when the front
gets forced south by thunderstorms. Winds will then shift to the east
btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...73





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