Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 252022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh






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