Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 160014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
714 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

While it`s hot and more humid today, temperatures tomorrow will
likely be several degrees cooler. This appears to be mainly due to
cooler temperatures aloft, despite similar depth of mixing. Also,
there may be higher amounts of cloud cover. So temperatures should
be closer to the middle 80s rather than approaching 90. Another
round of showers and storms will likely develop over central KS/NE
tonight and then shift east-northeast through the morning hours.
This may impact far northwestern MO by the afternoon hours. But by
Tuesday night, the focus will shift to a strong upper shortwave
trough moving out of the southwest. Strong ascent ahead of the wave
will help get storms going in central to western KS, along and ahead
a dryline. As the wave pushes east Tuesday night, the dryline
becomes diffuse, and forward propagation of any convection looks
primarily driven by the strong dynamics of the wave. Cross sections
show what appears to be an elevated cold front and model QPF seems
to be tied that feature. The main issue for our area is the timing
of the forcing. Instability is limited, though with the shear
available, would still be enough to cause concern for severe storms.
But slow down the wave a few hours and it starts to sync the strong
dynamics with better diurnal heating and stronger instability. Even
with the current less-than-favorable shortwave timing, forecast
sounding still have 500 to perhaps as much as 1000 J/kg of elevated
CAPE. With 50 to 70 kts of deep layer shear and the limited CAPE
available depicted by the forecast soundings, severe storms can`t be
ruled out Wednesday morning with a low CAPE high shear scenario.

Shortwave ridging on Thursday should keep most of the day dry. but
by the evening and especially into the overnight hours, another wave
will begin to move into the Plains and spread widespread showers and
storms across the area. With strong southwesterly flow aloft and
modest instability into the overnight hours, strong to severe storms
can`t be ruled out. Guidance becomes a little murkier heading into
the weekend. The GFS pushes the front the farther south, keeping the
bulk of the precipitation further south with it. The ECMWF and the
Canadian don`t push the front as far south and as result have a more
northerly depiction of in their QPF.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

Gusty winds will continue for anothe hour or so before gradually
winding down around sunset. Expect winds to remain in the 10 to 15
kt range through the overnight hours which will diminish the
concern for low level wind shear despite winds around 1500 feet
being in the 40 to 45 kt range. Expect winds to pick up in the
late morning on Tuesday and continue gusting to 30+ kts through
the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Leighton



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