Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 140442
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1142 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2017

Cold front has made it just south of a St. Joseph to Kirksville
line this afternoon with a secondary outflow boundary situated
very close to I-70. This latter boundary will likely serve as a
focus for thunderstorm development over the next few hours, as
evidenced by the agitated cumulus field quickly filling in along
this corridor, but will first have to overcome a temperature
inversion at 800 hPa. Most indications are that temperatures at
this level will cool enough to allow convective initiation by 4 or
5 PM and allow rapid thunderstorm development close to or just
north of the I-70 corridor. Shear is weak but strong instability
could allow storms to quickly become strong with isolated large
hail and a few bowing structures with damaging downburst winds
before quickly becoming outflow dominated and transitioning to
more of a heavy rain threat after a couple of hours. Precipitable
water values are high and will support spotty rainfall amounts as
high as 2 or 3 inches especially across areas from KC toward
Sedalia this evening, although storms should begin to accelerate
southward after sunset and cut back on the potential for very
heavy rain. In addition, the lack of a focused low- level jet
feeding into the cold front should prevent a widespread heavy rain
and flooding situation like what occurred further north last
night.

Some storms could linger across southern parts of the forecast
area Friday morning although most models are now bringing clearing
conditions to most of the region by mid morning. Much more
comfortable conditions will build in for Friday with highs in the
lower and middle 80s. Saturday will see a slight warm up but still
with lower humidity values to keep things relatively comfortable
compared to the past week.

The "cooler" temperatures for the end of the week will be short-
lived as a deep upper ridge will build back in from the west by
the beginning of next week. This will bring a return to hot and
humid conditions for much of next week with highs at least in the
lower or middle 90s and humidity creeping back up into
uncomfortable, maybe even hazardous levels.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2017

Rain and storms are moving away from the terminals late this
evening. But there may be a period of MVFR ceilings develop in its
wake later tonight. Confidence isn`t high but there are enough
model solutions that suggest lower ceilings developing as the
precipitation area moves away. If lower ceilings do develop, they
should move out of the area by noon, giving way to VFR conditions
for the rest of the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB



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