Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130926

326 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

Issued at 325 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

Persistent southerly flow will continue to push moisture and warmer
temperatures into the area. While we`ll likely see clouds most of the
day today, a few breaks are likely, mainly over the southern forecast
area. So with the warm advection and possible breaks in cloud cover,
temperatures may hit 60 degrees today. Stronger winds should help to
mix any overnight drizzle and/or fog out. For tonight, low clouds,
drizzle and fog will likely redevelop as moisture continues to build
into the area. Overnight lows will be well above normal, and likely
well above our normal highs for this time of year. Temperatures may
only fall into the low to mid 50s tonight. The warm overnight lows
will help set the stage for another day of well above normal highs
for Sunday. As with Saturday, stronger mixing should end the chances
for overnight drizzle/fog and most of the rest of the day should be
dry with a few breaks in the cloud cover. This will allow
temperatures to climb into the 60s. However, after sunset, widespread
rainfall will be moving into the area. With copious amounts of
moisture in place, temperatures climbing into the 60s, as well as a
negatively tilted trough moving into the area, it`s very possible
we`ll see isolated thunderstorms within the main area of
precipitation. Snow may mix with rain on the tail end of this system
Monday night. However, the best chances for any accumulating snow
will be northwestern Kansas through northeastern Nebraska, where the
thermal profile is more favorable.

For the extended portion of the forecast, another trough moves
through the region late in the week. There is a considerable amount
of variability with the upper-level pattern though and as a result,
trimmed down the chances for precipitation. This was most notable for
the Friday period of time when models are almost out of phase but
also not producing any QPF that would justify high precipitation
chances. Colder air may be easier to come by with the mid/late week
system, especially across northern Missouri, so there may be an
increasing potential for snow in the later half of next work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014

Kept forecast MVFR based on surrounding observations across the
region and persistence similar to last night. With a relatively low
confidence of IFR, have inserted a temporary window of IFR conditions
during the most probable time during the morning as opposed to a long
prevailing period. Otherwise should see some ceiling/vis improvement
during Sat afternoon, but believe it should remain MVFR as opposed to
prevailing VFR.




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