Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221124

524 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

Issued at 349 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Still expecting little to no sensible weather for the next seven
days of this forecast period. Thursday will likely be the coolest
day of this forecast period with highs today likely only reaching
the middle 30s to lower 40s across the area. This is due to a steady
flow of cool air into the area as a surface ridge dominates the
area. Once the surface ridge moves to the east and southerly surface
flow can recommence temperatures will rebound for the end of the
week and into the weekend. For Friday and Saturday the mid level
flow will be out of the northwest with a deep trough over the Hudson
Bay region and a strongly amplified ridge over the west coast. W/SW
surface flow will work with the general subsidence in the mid levels
to keep the area clear and warm through at least Saturday. Expect
highs for Friday and Saturday to be in the upper 40s to middle 50s
across the area. Sunday still looks to be the only period of this
forecast where precipitation looks to be possible. A quickly moving
trough will glide southeastward out of Canada and kick off a round
of showers, mainly east of Interstate 35 in northern and central
Missouri. At this point it appears that the bulk of any
precipitation that falls will be in the form of light rain, as
surface temperatures should be in the 40s to 50s. As the cooler air
works in and cools off the atmosphere for Sunday night, perhaps some
lingering precipitation could fall as a snow/rain mix, but any
wintry weather will be minimal through Sunday night.

Next week brings a period to watch with respect to warm
temperatures. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint that the west coast ridge
will slide eastward and become more of an influence over the
forecast area. Model agreement with exactly how a warm up next week
will play out is still to be desired, but should a few key features
line up, such as the mid level ridge moving over head concurrent
with S/SW winds, there could certainly be a fairly anomalous warm up
for the early to middle part of next week. Given the model
uncertainty with timing and placement of the mid level features as
well as with the surface pattern have held in the middle to upper
50s for the Tue/Wed period, but as mentioned above those highs could
go up should the right surface and mid level features line up right.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Sporadic MVFR CIGS observed across the area within the more
widespread stratus over far northern Missouri and Kansas. Expect
all terminals to have a possibility for a transient period of MVFR
CIGS for the next couple of hours before CIGS show some gradual
improvement through the morning hours. By this afternoon skies should
be mostly clear with light and variable winds.




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