Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 280812

312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.




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