Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Oppressive heat makes a return today. 850 hPa temps around 24C and
dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s look to give conditions very
similar to Jul 13 when heat index values reached the 110 to 115
range. Similar heat index values appear likely today especially across
eastern KS and far western MO, so the excessive heat warning was
expanded to include all counties along the state line. This is of
course assuming early morning storms over northern KS don`t send
thick high clouds into the region for much of the day. If this occurs
then temperatures may not make it out of the upper 80s/lower 90s
although humidity levels will still be oppressive either way.

Heat and humidity this afternoon will yield an extremely unstable
airmass although we`ll be lacking any clear forcing mechanism. Still,
given the lack of any appreciable inversion aloft, it wouldn`t take
much to spark a few storms so slight chance PoPs were added to
today`s forecast. Will also need to watch storms over northern IA
which several high-res models want to dive due south into our area
later today. This would require a strong cold pool to develop and
doesn`t appear too likely to occur at this point, unless additional
storms can develop further southwest.

A more organized area of thunderstorms may develop tonight when a
weak impulse will traverse the northern periphery of the upper ridge
to the south. This appears most likely to impact northern MO and
perhaps far northeast KS where locally heavy rain is a possibility.

Saturday could see temperatures and humidity levels again approach
dangerous levels, but a lot of this will depend on any rain and
clouds from early morning convection. Due to the uncertainty,
decided not to extend any heat headlines into Saturday for now other
than the heat advisory that is already in place for the KC metro. A
continued unstable and weakly capped airmass could allow a few storms
to develop at any time during the day, although the highest chances
will again be during the overnight hours when another convective
complex could spread across parts of the area. Will again need to
watch for heavy rain potential with this activity which could persist
into Sunday.

Upper ridge will strengthen a bit by Monday and Tuesday which will
finally shift the storm track further to our north and east. This
will also allow hot temperatures to build back into the area
particularly on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Storms over northeast KS should begin to weaken shortly, and
confidence is not terribly high that they can last long enough to
impact the KC area airports. After this activity dissipates, there
could be a very isolated storm again this afternoon with betterchances
later tonight particularly just to the north of KC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     KSZ103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>005-013>015-022>024-030>032-038>040-044>046-054.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ011-012-020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     MOZ028-029-037.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel


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