Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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977
FXUS63 KEAX 121953
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
253 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

Quiet conditions continue this evening and tonight as surface high
pressure continues to broaden and slide east across the northern
Plains. Blowoff associated with the system in central OK will
stream across far southern portions of the CWA and a stray shower
could make it as far north as the southwestern CWA border, but
overall expect conditions to be dry and skies to gradually clear
late tonight as the southern system pulls away to the southeast.
Efficient cooling and dry air advection will allow temperatures to
fall into the lower 60s to mid 50s again across the CWA, so have
bumped lows down for tonight by a notch.

Return flow behind the departing surface high will allow humidity
to gradually increase Sunday and Monday, allowing instability to
mount during the afternoon hours. The best axis of SBCAPE on
Sunday looks to remain southwest of the CWA, and any pop-up storms
should also be confined mainly to the southeastern quadrant of KS.
On Monday that axis will translate north and build east and may
allow for a few isolated showers and storms during the afternoon,
but capping will limit coverage and therefore probability in any
one location remains slight. Similar conditions and thus similar
PoPs are expected Tuesday, and shear will be fairly marginal both
days, keeping disorganized any convection that does develop.

By Tuesday night, the nocturnal low-level jet surges northward and
drives moisture, instability, and precipitation all the way into
northeast NE and southeast SD, keeping the coverage of nighttime
and early morning precip/cloud cover fairly scattered in our area.
This will set the stage for mounting instability ahead of a cold
front on Wednesday afternoon, and will combine with increasing
deep layer shear to make strong storms possible. This front will
sweep through Wednesday evening and settle south of the CWA on
Thursday, then its position will become a bit more uncertain and
PoPs more nebulous after Thursday.

Temperatures will trend warmer this week as the pattern amplifies
across the central Plains, but could be moderated by cloud cover
any one of the upcoming days. The main notable difference even if
cloud cover hold temperatures down a bit will be the increased,
more summer-like dewpoints from Monday through at least Wednesday.


&&

.Specifics for the Total Solar Eclipse on August 21st...
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

All three models (Canadian, GFS, EC) continue to show precip
somewhere in the vicinity of E KS/W MO on the afternoon of August
21; however, potential clouds/precip in the overall zonal flow
pattern will be very dependent on the timing and location of the
series of shortwave troughs that ride across the central Plains.
Will continue to monitor as next week approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Passing
cirrus will remain scattered in coverage, and the majority of
diurnal cu should remain to the south and east of the terminals.
Winds will remain a bit variable in direction but mainly out of
the E to ESE, at speeds less than 10 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Eclipse...Laflin



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