Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 011112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
512 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

SKC conditions will continue during this period. A westerly
surface wind will prevail across all sites at <= 6 kts through
00z, then will become light and variable.




SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
09z subjective surface analysis indicates a ridge axis from
northeast Louisiana, to east central Texas. This feature will
move slowly eastward during this period.

Latest water vapor imagery indicates well defined energy
approaching the Baja California region. This feature is forecast
to continue to the east, while amplifying, and then phasing with
northern stream energy late in this period. In response, southerly
low level flow will develop across the southern plains, then
eastward to the mid south. Isentropic lift will develop through
the 650-850 hpa layer, and condensation pressure deficits will
lower, supporting precipitation develop across at least southwest
sections towards the end of this period. More substantial
precipitation is expected after this period...

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
..An unsettled wx pattern wl be in full swing acrs the region on
Sat. SWLY flow aloft wl bring a series of upr impulses acrs the
region Sat into Sun, interacting with plenty of moisture/WAA
regime, to produce periods of rain ovr much of AR. Still looks
like we will see a brief break in the precip later on Sun and much
of Sun ngt.

The previously mentioned upr lvl low ovr NRN Mexico is fcst to lift
NEWD acrs TX on Mon, eventually tracking ovr the region Mon ngt/
early Tue. The model solutions this mrng as are on board with
overall timing of this feature early in the week. The sys is fcst to
eventually bcm an open wv and take on a more negative tilt as it
passes thru the Mid-South. Based on this scenario, the assocd sfc
low track is expected to stay to the SE of AR, which in turn would
keep organized convection along the Gulf Coast and points E. Rain
chcs wl diminish late Tue ngt/Tue mrng as the storm sys moves out of
the area.

The progressive pattern is fcst to bring a large scale upr trof out
of the Wrn states and into the Cntrl part of the nation by Wed. The
assocd CDFNT wl be affecting AR by this time, with some of the
coldest air of the season to follow beyond this fcst pd.&&


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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