Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221724 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016


Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Tonight patchy areas of MVFR with fog will be seen but overall
coverage is expected to remain low and possible only affect TAF site
KADF. Winds will be south at 3 to 8 mph or light and variable today
and tonight. Not much change on Friday except winds will be south at
5 to 10 mph.


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 1045 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Overall forecast on track. Earlier update did take mention of fog
out of forecast. Today will see mostly sunny skies, dry and with
warm highs in the upper 80s to lower and a few mid 90s. A light
south wind or light and variable. Some local AR prescribed burning
is on-going, with minimum relative humidity values in the 40
percent. The surface and upper high pressure systems are dominating
the weather pattern over the region, keeping conditions dry and
warm. Little change is seen in the next several days, with the next
best chance of rain late Sunday to Monday with a frontal boundary.
Otherwise, will fine-tune a few elements with late morning update,
with not major changes planned. (59)



SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

The upper level pattern will begin to amplify greatly over the
next 24 hours across the lower 48. An upper low centered over
southwest Oregon will strengthen as it shifts inland to northern
Utah, with increasing downstream ridging being forecast from the
Upper Midwest through the lower Mississippi River Valley. The
resulting surface pattern will feature high pressure to the east
of Arkansas, maintaining a warm southerly flow pattern across the
region. Thus we will continue to see above normal temperatures
both at night and during the daytime hours here in Arkansas.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Sunday

Summer-like wx conds wl prevail at the start of the pd with the
persistent upr rdg axis in place ovr the region. Model solutions do
agree that the rdg wl gradually weaken and shift EWD later in the
weekend as a long wv upr trof works into the Rockies. Beyond that...
model confidence drops with this latest set of data.

The GFS rmns more progressive taking the main upr trof EWD and
pushing a CDFNT thru AR before stalling out just E of the FA early
next week. Meanwhile...the ECMWF cuts off an upr low ovr the SWRN
states and takes the NRN part of the trof EWD into the Great Lakes
region thru midweek. Opted to use a blend of the model solutions
today and maintain fcst consistency.

The best rain chcs wl be W of the FA thru much of the weekend. The
CDFNT wl eventually work thru AR early next week...with SCTD rain
chcs in the fcst. Above normal temps at the start of the period wl
drop to below normal lvls by early next week.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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