Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241105 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
505 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LIMITED...AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY
FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL BE SEEN THIS SAT...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60. BY SUN...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE REGION...BUT SINCE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BE LIMITED...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS A SFC COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE SUN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN SOME
SPOTS TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES...AND THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS
FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR.

TEMPS MAY BE A BIT COOLER FOR MON BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL THEN WARM SOME AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE NE UPPER FLOW RELAXES WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING A
BIT FURTHER EAST ON TUE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE TRYING
TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THAT
THIS IS JUST NOW SHOWING UP...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. TOWARD THE WEEKEND...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE...WHICH
MAY AFFECT US JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





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