Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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362
FXUS64 KLZK 132308 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
508 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.AVIATION...00Z/14 Dec Forecast
Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Frontal boundary
will continue to move southward tonight, with winds shifting to
the northwest, then diminishing. Mid and high clouds will increase
by Thursday afternoon, as moisture associated with an approaching
upper system moves into the region. Tafs out shortly.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 248 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Near term forecast concerns continue to reflect fire weather danger
concerns. Recent observations indicate elevated fire weather danger
conditions continuing, with a few sites approaching headline
criteria. Wind speed values are expected to continue to slowly
decrease this afternoon however.

A cold front now moving into northern Missouri will continue
southward, passing through southern sections of the state by early
morning. No precipitation is expected with feature. A noticeable
change in temperatures are expected for Thursday, with afternoon
temperatures averaging five degrees below normal.

Dry, and clear conditions again will affect the mid south for
Friday.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
The main focus for the long term is going to be the chance for rain
this weekend. A strong shortwave embedded in southwesterly flow
aloft, will eject from central Texas into the Arklatex Saturday
night and into Sunday. This will bring widespread and much needed
rainfall to Arkansas, especially the southeast half of the state.
Current guidance indicates 1 to 1.5 inches of rain will be possible
in southeastern parts of the state, with lesser amounts the further
northwest you go.

There is some uncertainty regarding the potential for another shot
of light rain on Monday/Tuesday as well as the GFS depicts, but the
often times more reliable ECMWF shows a completely dry forecast. I
inherited a dry forecast for that time period and will continue with
that for now.

Otherwise, dry conditions should prevail through the period with
temperatures remaining at or slightly above normal.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Arkansas-
Desha-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-
Prairie-White-Woodruff.
&&

$$

Aviation...57



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