Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 160545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...PERSISTING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TO MID
AFTERNOON ON SUN. CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW.

SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH A WINTRY MIX
EXPECTED INITIALLY...THEN EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW. HRO
AND BPK WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
CHANCES WILL ALSO BE SEEN AT HOT...LIT...PBF AND EVEN ADF. THESE
TERMINALS WILL SEE A MUCH MORE NARROW WINDOW FOR SEEING WINTRY
PRECIP. LLQ SHOULD SEE ONLY LIQUID PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...TO
EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE 750 TO 850 MB LAYER...CONTRIBUTING
TO MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONS ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. A MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS ACROSS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
SECTIONS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW PRECLUDES ISSUING ANY MORE HEADLINES
TO THE EAST...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN STATE BORDER FOR ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

55

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TODAYS MODELS CONT TO INDC AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE UPR FLOW
PATTERN THRU THE PD. THE LARGE UPR TROF OVR THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE NATION...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR
INTRUSION...WL SHIFT EWD EARLY IN THE PD. THIS WL ALLOW THE FLOW
ALOFT TO BCM MORE ZONAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A NEW UPR STORM SYS THAT WL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE SWRN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH PRES WL BE SITUATED WELL TO THE E OF AR ON WED...WITH A
RESULTING SWLY WIND FLOW NOTED. A WEAK FNTL BNDRY WL BE DROPPING SWD
INTO THE FA LATE WED AND WED NGT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVR THE
AREA. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FCST TO TRACK TO THE S OF THE REGION THU
AND FRI...WITH RAIN CHCS RETURNING.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT AS IT DVLPS A
STRONGER SFC LOW FURTHER TO THE N AND TRACKS IT QUICKLY NEWD ACRS AR
THU NGT AND EARLY FRI. OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
NCEP DATA...KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN IN PLACE THRU SAT. ONE
THING IS FOR SURE...TEMPS WL RMN BLW SEASONAL NORMS DURG THE PD.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  38  23  31 /  30  50  70  10
CAMDEN AR         38  42  28  43 /  70  70  70  10
HARRISON AR       28  35  19  27 /  30  60  60  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  39  25  38 /  50  50  70  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  39  26  38 /  50  50  80  10
MONTICELLO AR     39  43  31  42 /  70  80  80  10
MOUNT IDA AR      34  38  24  38 /  40  50  60  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  36  20  27 /  30  60  60  10
NEWPORT AR        32  38  23  32 /  30  50  80  10
PINE BLUFF AR     38  40  28  39 /  60  60  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   32  40  23  32 /  30  50  60  10
SEARCY AR         33  39  24  32 /  40  50  80  10
STUTTGART AR      36  39  26  37 /  50  60  80  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BOONE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62





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