Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 260538
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AR. VFR TO AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR WILL
BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN AR. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR WHERE SNOW COVER HAS OCCURRED. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AND BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR JUST FLURRIES...AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS DURING
THE NIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO NORTH SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

AVIATION...

THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KPBF AND KLLQ. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER SOUTHERN AR AND THE SNOW END...BUT THEN
BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SET IN. OVER NORTHERN
AR VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN. CENTRAL AREAS WILL START VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME ALL VFR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...MOST TAF
SITES WILL BECOME MVFR WITH CEILINGS WITH SOME FOG FORMING. A WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO AR LATE NIGHT...BRINGING
SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES...AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
WITH SOME ELEVATED WINDS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH A BAND
CURRENTLY FROM FORDYCE...TO PINE BLUFF...TO DE WITT PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES OF ALMOST 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS AS OF 230 PM WERE 5.5 INCHES AT FORDYCE...WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES
AT MURFREESBORO...NEAR SHERIDAN...AND NEAR PINE BLUFF. COULD SEE ONE
TO TWO MORE INCHES THROUGH 6 PM...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO AVOID CONFUSION...AND
TO LET PEOPLE KNOW THAT ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE
HAZARDOUS.

WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND BRING
SMALL SNOW CHANCES. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE WIND SHIFT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND EVEN COLDER
ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SFC RDG WL BE RETREATING TO THE E OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
PD...WITH AN E/SELY WIND FLOW SETTING UP ACRS AR. AN UPR LVL STORM
SYS IS FCST TO PASS NW OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY ON SAT...WITH JUST A
SLGT CHC OF PRECIP OVR NWRN AR.

MORE UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR PRETTY MUCH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. A FNTL BNDRY IS FCST TO APCH AR FM
THE NW...EVENTUALLY MOVG THRU MUCH OF THE STATE SUN AND SUN NGT
BEFORE STALLING OUT AS THE FNT BCMS PARALLEL TO THE UPR FLOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY WX WL EXIST SAT NGT AND EARLY SUN ACRS NRN
AR AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FROPA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL MEANDER OVR AR INTO WED. A SERIES
OF UPR LVL IMPULSES WL TRACK ALONG THE BNDRY...ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED
PRECIP CHCS THRU MUCH OF THE PD. TIMING OF EACH SYS WL RMN THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGE.

MILDER AIR WL RETURN AREAWIDE HEADING INTO MON AS THE BNDRY LIFTS
BACK N OF AR...WITH PRECIP TO RMN THE LIQUID VARIETY. SOME THUNDER
WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS SRN PARTS OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN HRS MON
AND TUE. RAIN CHCS DO APPEAR TO DCRS SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO WED AS A
NRN STREAM UPR TROF SWINGS EWD TO OUR N AND BRINGS A NEW CDFNT THRU
MOST OF AR BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  27  34  16 /  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         34  26  38  22 / 100  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       42  23  29  11 /  10  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  27  38  19 /  80  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  27  38  20 /  70  10  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  26  37  21 / 100  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      36  27  36  18 /  60  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  43  25  30  12 /  10  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        37  26  36  17 /  20  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     32  26  36  21 / 100  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   40  27  36  18 /  30  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         37  26  37  18 /  50  10  20  10
STUTTGART AR      34  26  38  20 /  80  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65





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