Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 200845
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS HELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY...AND REMAINS THERE
THIS MORNING. IN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED ONCE
AGAIN. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS THE TOUGHEST PART OF THIS FORECAST...AS
IT WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WAS SOME DRYING IN THE EVENING SOUNDING...AND EXPECTING THE
CLOUD LAYER TO THIN OUT LATER TODAY...BUT HOLDING ON THE LONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY...AND
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S. SOUTH FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB AS WELL.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. DUE TO THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE STATE...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST. THIS SETS UP
AN UPPER NW FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG INTO AR.
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION. ON
FRIDAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE OVER NORTHERN TO EASTERN AR. ON SATURDAY...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NW UPPER FLOW...AND HAVE
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AR. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TO THE MIDDLE OF JULY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WHILE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59



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