Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 250524 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016
Updated for the 06z aviation discussion below.
High pressure will keep dry weather over the area through the first
part of the period. Satellite images show high clouds increasing
from the south. With additional moisture over the area and increased
instability, there will be a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon mainly south and central. Expect VFR conditions
through the period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 904 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016)
A few showers developed this evening in northeast Louisiana on
the back side of the high pressure area...located in central
Tennessee. Most showers have dissipated. Clouds will continue to
move into Arkansas from Louisiana and Mississippi. Increased cloud
cover mainly in central and eastern sections overnight. Rest of
forecast is on track.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 253 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Overall chances for precipitation will increase during this period.
An upper level ridge axis...analyzed from east Texas to western
North Carolina...is forecast to weaken...and move east during this
period. This will allow for the development of widely
scattered...diurnally enhanced convection for Thursday.
A cold front will approach from the northwest on Friday. This
feature will promote a more focused...widespread precipitation
event across the entire forecast area.
Near normal temperatures are expected during this period.
LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
The extended term will be dominated by a ridge centered over the mid-
Atlantic states. Arkansas will remain on the western edge of this
ridge, and temperatures will remain at or slightly above
climatological normals, and dewpoints will remain in the 70s...hot
and muggy for lack of a better term. Daily POPs will remain in the
20 to 30 pct range through most of the period.
Of course the latter half of the extended forecast could change
significantly if tropical disturbance 99L does develop into an
organized system and if it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast models are all over the place on this system right now, and
it`s not even a given that it will develop into anything
significant. At this point in time I have not incorporated any
effects from this system into the forecast. If it does develop,
and models continue to forecast it moving into the Gulf, some
wholesale changes may be necessary for the middle of next week.