Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230513
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1113 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VARYING CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND LIFR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH DETERIORATION AFTER
SUNRISE AS RAINFALL MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE STATE WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER 23/18Z...WHEN RAINFALL WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES WITH STOUT SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
IN PLACE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AS
A SURFACE COLD CLEARS THE STATE BY MORNING. WILL REWORK THE POPS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ACTUAL QPF WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE PREVAILING FLOW WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST BY MORNING. MORE RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
DATA FROM LOCAL RADARS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE STATE...THEN WILL ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY
21Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT  A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY WARM NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING AND THEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY A SHOWER
EVENT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER THEN THE EURO. HAVE
TRENDED TO THE SLOWER EURO AND KEEP MORE PRECIP OVER AR THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THE PRECIP GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF AR EARLY SUNDAY.
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS...SOME LOW CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN TO NORTH CENTRAL
AR...AS TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. LITTLE TO NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE IS PUSHED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT. THEN DRYING AND COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPS
WILL START A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...THEN COOL TO AT OR BELOW
LEVELS SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  51  37  45 /  20  40  60  30
CAMDEN AR         48  52  40  49 /  30  50  50  30
HARRISON AR       38  49  33  40 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  50  37  46 /  20  40  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  51  38  47 /  20  50  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     50  54  41  49 /  30  70  70  30
MOUNT IDA AR      42  48  35  43 /  20  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  49  35  42 /  20  20  30  30
NEWPORT AR        44  52  37  46 /  20  40  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     48  52  39  49 /  30  70  70  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  49  36  45 /  20  30  30  20
SEARCY AR         44  51  38  46 /  20  50  60  40
STUTTGART AR      47  52  39  48 /  30  70  60  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






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