Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281147
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG. FOG WILL BURN OFF
THIS MORNING AND CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT BPK LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED JUST TO THE NW OF THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG.
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WAS NOTED ACRS AR WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
THE HIGH CENTER WL CONT TO SAG SWD TODAY...PROVIDING FOR ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

MODELS CONT TO KEEP THE REGION IN A SUSTAINED NWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU
THE FCST PD. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL IMPULSES IS FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY TNGT AND MON. AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
AR LATE TNGT AND MON BEFORE STALLING OUT OVR THE AREA. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH THIS SYS IS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY N
OF THE FA. OPTED TO KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FCST IN THE VCNTY OF
THE BNDRY LATER TNGT THRU MON.

SEVERAL ADDITIONAL UPR LVL SHRTWV/S WL DROP SEWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCTD CONVECTION
THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS THRU MUCH OF THE PD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY
FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER
ARKANSAS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY COLD FRONTS THAT APPROACH THE STATE SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITHOUT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  94  71 /   0   0  20  30
HARRISON AR       85  66  88  67 /   0  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  68  92  72 /   0  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  69  92  72 /   0  10  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     89  68  92  73 /   0   0  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      87  67  91  71 /   0  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        86  68  90  71 /   0  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     88  68  92  72 /   0   0  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  92  70 /   0  10  20  30
SEARCY AR         87  67  91  71 /   0  10  20  30
STUTTGART AR      87  68  91  72 /   0  10  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




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