Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 131145 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
545 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.Aviation...

Overall MVFR flight conditions with ceilings will start the forecast.
Areas of IFR ceilings will be seen this morning before becoming all
MVFR then gradually VFR ceilings in the afternoon. The cold front
will slowly sag to southern AR today, then become stationary. Also
light showers will be seen, especially over northern and central AR.
Early this morning some patchy freezing drizzle will be possible
over far northern AR, at KHRO and KBPK Tafs. Otherwise winds will be
north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph over northern to central AR, while
until the front sags through, winds will be south at 3 to 10 mph
over southern AR. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 320 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/
.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain each day,
any heavy rain later in the period which may lead to some flooding,
and a temperature forecast. Also, early this morning any chance
of freezing drizzle or light rain over far northern AR.

On the surface map, the cold front has made some progress south
and was currently just south of Pine Bluff to just south of
Arkadelphia. A north wind, cooler and drier air was filtering into
AR from the north as surface high pressure builds southward. South
of the front, temperatures were in the 60s, while north of the
front, 50s to 40s, while some 30s along the AR counties next to
MO. Scattered light rain was seen over northwest to northern AR,
and it was moving northeast. Aloft, the upper zonal to a weak
ridging over the eastern plains will keep much of the shortwave
energy north of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

The forecast will start cloudy with a slight to low chance of
rain today. Cooler temperatures with a north to northeast wind
will be seen, but still a bit above normal for central, while
still well above normal over southern areas. Over the north, below
normal temperatures will be seen. The slight chance of freezing
precip over far northern AR still exists, but only for a few hours
before temperatures come above freezing. Rain amounts will be from
a trace to only a few tenths of an inch. The nearly zonal to some
upper ridge over the region, the front will stall over southern to
central AR into Saturday, then drift north a bit more through
Sunday. It will focus any rain near it, as well as some upper
shortwave energy moves through the region. Models do have most of
the upper energy focused over over northern to northwest AR and to
the north. The highest rain chances and amounts will be northern
to northwest AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

A warm front will be lifting north over the state at the start of
the long term period as a potent upper level shortwave trough
approaches from the SW. Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA will
remain possible on Sun...but the majority of the precip potential
will have lifted north of the state. This upper level shortwave will
lift NE across the plains...lifting north of the state by Mon into
Tue. A cold front will slide SE into the state as this occurs...with
widespread SHRA/TSRA developing along this slow moving cold front.
This front will slow down as it moves into AR Tue...becoming nearly
parallel to the SW flow aloft. Looks like the front will then regain
momentum by early Wed as a new upper shortwave trough surges rapidly
east across the region...with the front exiting AR by Wed into Wed
night.

Have high POPs mentioned Mon through much of Tue as this slow moving
cold front moves over AR. Will continue to focus on the potential
for heavy rainfall as the primary hazard possible early next week
with ample moisture interacting with the slow moving front. There
could be some areas that see several inches of rainfall...with an
increased flash flood threat becoming possible. However...latest data
continues to show some uncertainty regarding where the axis of heavy
rain will fall...and how much rainfall may be seen. So...will
continue to monitor this potential for heavy rainfall over time.
There may also be some potential for strong storms...primarily on
Mon. Again though...uncertainty remains in the overall SVR WX
potential this far out.

This front will exit the region near the end of the forecast...with
drier conditions expected to wrap up the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     42  38  47  46 /  40  40  50  30
Camden AR         61  50  66  55 /  30  30  20  10
Harrison AR       42  39  44  46 /  60  60  60  50
Hot Springs AR    53  45  60  52 /  40  50  40  20
Little Rock   AR  50  42  58  51 /  40  40  40  20
Monticello AR     60  51  66  55 /  30  20  20  10
Mount Ida AR      55  46  59  52 /  40  50  40  20
Mountain Home AR  39  37  44  45 /  60  60  70  50
Newport AR        42  39  48  47 /  40  40  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     54  46  63  53 /  40  30  30  20
Russellville AR   48  42  54  50 /  40  50  50  30
Searcy AR         46  40  53  48 /  40  40  50  30
Stuttgart AR      50  45  60  52 /  40  30  40  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62


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