Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201717 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1217 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some MVFR CIGS will continue into the early afternoon hrs for some
sites...but do expect improvements by late this afternoon into
the evening hrs. Overnight...some fog will develop as winds will
be fairly light. Wouldn`t be too surprised to see some IFR or even
LIFR VIS by sunrise Sat morning. Otherwise...only some VCSH
mentioned early this Fri afternoon at the NRN terminals...with VFR
conditions expected elsewhere.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night.

Short term/high resolution models all seem to have initialized well
at this time and indicate the precipitation will be wrapping up
fairly early this morning. Current radar tends are also supporting
this line of thought and forecast will follow their lead.

Intense convection along the gulf coast once again robbed moisture
from the shortwave energy passing through the state and produced
generally light rainfall amounts. Small chances of precipitation
will be held onto until the aforementioned energy and associated
upper trough clears the area completely. A brief shower can not be
totally discounted across the north this afternoon as the system
pulls out.

In the wake of this system...weak high pressure will build into the
area with dry conditions expected tonight through the remainder of
the short term period. Cloud cover will keep temperatures below
normal today and while higher readings are expected Saturday, they
will still average below normal.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday

An upper ridge will be over the center portion of the country to
begin the long term period with an upper low over the west coast and
an upper trough over the east coast. Arkansas will be under the
ridge Sunday, then the ridge moves east slowly on Monday and Tuesday.
Another ridge builds into the southern plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday from the Gulf of Mexico as the upper low moves to the
Rockies...for Tuesday and Wednesday. The large area of low pressure
takes over the north and west part of the country Thursday, and
southwest flow will be over Arkansas.

Sunday is expected to be dry with surface high pressure dominating
the area. No cold fronts are expected to move through the state,
though several short waves will move through. Moisture begins to
return on Monday and thunderstorm chances increase Monday night into
Tuesday as a short wave moves through the area. Models indicate a
short wave to move through each day of the long term period. Below
normal temperatures are expected through Monday...but will be back
to near normal Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...62



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