Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 200529 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions will be forecast for the next 24
hours. A few patches of fog could form early Friday morning, with
brief MVFR conditions in places. After sunrise on Friday, any fog
will dissipate within an hour or two. Winds will be light and
variable or light southeast Thursday night. Winds on Friday will be
southeast at 6 to 14 mph, with some gusts from 16 to 20 mph mainly
in northwest AR. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 233 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.Short Term...Tonight thru Saturday
A surface high pressure system has moved to the east, and has
allowed a return southerly flow to set up. Temperature and moisture
levels are slowly increasing, and lows tonight should be a bit
warmer than last night. Highs tomorrow and Saturday will be fairly
close to the same as today, albeit some areas may be a few
degrees cooler.

Aloft, an upper level ridge of high pressure will start to break
down as a trof approaches from the west. A few upper level
disturbances moving thru the flow will result in some chances for
thunderstorms, starting in the western part of the state tomorrow
night, with increasing chances statewide on Saturday. The highest
rain chances will not occur until the extended term, however.

&&

.Long Term...Saturday Night through Thursday
Well-advertised frontal boundary will be moving through the region
late Saturday night and Sunday, with fairly widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. A few strong storms will be possible,
with hail and winds the primary concern. However, what will be
acting against it will be the time of day, as the main show in
Arkansas will be well after we`ve lost daytime heating. Also, while
not excessive, rainfall of an inch or so appears to be a good bet,
especially over western Arkansas.

Behind the front, rain chances will come to an end late Sunday, as
an upper trough moves into the mid south region and deepens into a
cutoff low. Behind the low, nearly meridional upper flow will set
up, with colder air filtering into the region. Highs by Wednesday
and Thursday will mostly remain in the 60s, with lows in the 30s and
40s. Much more welcome this time of year, wouldn`t you say?

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...57


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