Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 311644
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE NORTH WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA AND
WEAKENING AS IT DOES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST TERMINALS AND EVEN THEN FOR JUST A FEW MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS MORNING RETURNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS EAST OF PINE BLUFF THIS MORNING.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST TODAY BUT SUSPECT ONCE
THESE MORNING SHOWERS MOVE OUT THAT WE MAY BE DONE WITH PRECIP FOR
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY BUT CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LESSENING INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE.

SPEAKING OF THAT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE PAC NW TO
THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
NEVER BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...BUT IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARDS THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. WITH
LACK OF AMPLITUDE IN UPPER FLOW AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL FLOW IT IS UNLIKELY THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO YIELD ANY RAINFALL ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
HOWEVER...ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT DOES SO.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND INTO ARKANSAS.
HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LEFT IN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY...AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPROUT UP AGAIN THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE ON TAP TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHICH...DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS UP
BEING...COULD BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
BEFORE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE ONLY REAL POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON DAY SEVEN...WILL SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH BROAD RIDGING COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE
NATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TIME AS TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST
COAST. RIDGE WILL KEEP THE PERIOD DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING LATE
DAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

COLD FRONT DOES APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS. WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND INTRODUCE SOME HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

WITH RIDGING REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS
WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHER DEW POINTS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  92  73 /  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         89  73  92  74 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       90  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    89  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  73  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  72  91  74 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  71  91  72 /  10  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        88  72  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     87  72  92  74 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  93  74 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         88  72  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      87  72  92  73 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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