Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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573
FXUS64 KLZK 220950
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
450 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Tropical Storm Cindy was moving inland over southwest Louisiana
early this morning. The system will weaken and track into
southern Arkansas early Friday morning, and will exit to the
east of the state Friday afternoon.

The remnants of Cindy will likely bring heavy to excessive
rain to areas south and east of Little Rock. Two to five inches
of rain is expected across the south and east. Rain could be
enhanced near the track of the system tonight/early Friday, and
this may lead to totals over five inches in isolated areas.

This much rain will be possible considering precipitable water
values /PWATs/ surrounding Cindy. PWATs over 2.5 inches are noted
in guidance across the south/east, which is higher than June
maxes locally looking back at past sounding data. These
historically high values will certainly make showers/storms more
efficient rain makers.

Given the scenario, a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for
much of the southeast half of Arkansas tonight into Friday
morning.

In addition to the heavy rain concern, a few storms could
be severe across the southeast counties. Damaging winds
and a brief weak tornado or two are possible. This would
mainly happen this afternoon and evening.

The remnants of Cindy will take an abrupt turn to the east
toward the Tennessee Valley on Friday due to a cold front
arriving from the Plains. The front will keep hit and miss thunder
in the forecast heading into the first part of the extended
period.

As far as temperatures, below average readings are
expected during the daytime today/Friday, with above
average readings at night.
&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
A front will have moved into Arkansas from the north by Saturday
morning, and will linger near the AR/LA border Saturday and Sunday.
While much of the forecast area will be dry, some rain chances will
remain in the forecast through the weekend in the far south to
account for possible convection. By late Sunday night, a deepening
upper trough over the eastern US should displace this frontal
boundary far enough south that dry conditions will be seen across
Arkansas during the start of the work week. Beyond Tuesday or
Wednesday, model agreement really begins to lessen. Kept a dry
forecast in there, but that wasn`t done with a great deal of
confidence.

On the temperature front, around or slightly below normal
temperatures should be the norm in the extended time frame. With a
persistent upper trough over the eastern U.S., northerly flow over
the region should also keep the humidity levels down below what one
would normally expect for this time of year.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  73  84  65 /  70  70  70  20
Camden AR         83  74  85  71 /  80  90  80  50
Harrison AR       82  70  82  60 /  30  30  50  10
Hot Springs AR    83  74  86  69 /  70  70  70  40
Little Rock   AR  84  74  86  69 /  70  80  80  30
Monticello AR     85  75  83  71 /  80  90  90  50
Mount Ida AR      83  73  86  67 /  60  60  60  40
Mountain Home AR  82  72  84  62 /  40  40  50  10
Newport AR        84  74  83  66 /  70  80  80  20
Pine Bluff AR     84  75  83  70 /  80  90  80  40
Russellville AR   85  74  87  67 /  50  50  60  30
Searcy AR         83  74  84  68 /  70  80  80  30
Stuttgart AR      85  74  83  69 /  70  90  80  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Grant-
Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-Woodruff.

&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...64



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