Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 200507 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1207 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Light southerly winds are across the area late this evening...with
scattered showers in southwest and west Arkansas. However, scattered
showers in northeast Texas will continue into southwest Arkansas
into the early morning hours. Expect precipitation chances to
increase late tonight into the morning as a cold front approaches
from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will increase during
the morning hours and continue through the day ahead of the front.
The front will pass Monticello last so will keep thunderstorms here
through the end of the period. Mainly VFR and MVFR conditions are
expected through the period with isolated IFR conditions possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 853 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016)

UPDATE...

Rain showers are isolated in the northwest and south. An area of
showers is moving into southwest Arkansas at this time. These are
expected to weaken and eventually dissipate through the rest of
the evening. Adjusted POPs accordingly and increased cloud cover.
Rain chances will increase late tonight into the morning hours as
another short wave approaches the area and a cold front moves
further east into Missouri and Oklahoma. Also...expect patchy fog
during the morning.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast are the chances of rain each day,
especially the rest of today, Saturday and Sunday ahead of the
cold front. Flooding remains a concern with saturated ground and
risk of isolated areas of heavy rain. Temperatures will remain
mostly cooler than normal due to the clouds, rain and the
continued upper low pressure trough and northwest flow.

Today convection has been mainly isolated to a few spots becoming
scattered, especially over northern and now in southwest AR.
Monitoring current trends as well as convection over north Texas
with its slow movement to the northeast. Otherwise, the upper
pattern upper pattern remains west to southwest and energy is
moving through the region. Earlier short range models showed a
slow weakening and this has continued with the latest runs. This
will be monitored. Tonight to Saturday, a cold front begins to
approach from the northwest and additional convection is expected.
Temperatures are running in the mid 70s, and expecting highs only
in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday Night

Will keep chance pops going this afternoon to evening, mainly
showers with isolated thunder. Will monitor north Tx convection as
it slowly moves east northeast. The pattern doesn`t change until
Saturday night when the upper trough deepens a bit, and allows the
cold front to gradually move through AR. Plenty of convection will
be seen on Saturday night to early Sunday with the front. A low
risk of any strong to severe storms will be seen. The main threat
will be heavy rain and possible flash flooding. On Sunday, the
cold front sweeps through and takes the rain out of AR.
Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the short
term.

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday...

At the start of the period, upper trough will be making its way east
of the Great Lakes region headed toward the Northeast. At the
surface, a cold front will be south of the forecast area and rain
chances will be coming to an end.

Cool, dry air will spill into the state as high pressure builds in
over the area. Temps will be cool for a few days, with lows dropping
into the 50s across the northern third of the state Monday morning.

Near the end of the period, temperatures moderate a bit though they
are still at or below normal values. High pressure aloft and at the
surface begins to move east of the area and southerly flow returns
to the state. Clouds will become more widespread and rain chances
will increase from west to east late next week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51



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