Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 200317 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1005 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG/MVFR VISIBILITIES TOWARD DAWN AT A FEW
SPOTS. ANY FOG WILL BE BRIEF. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY FORM
ON WEDNESDAY AT 5000 TO 6000 FEET. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 6 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 MPH WEDNESDAY. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST THIS WEEK AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE MID 90S TO UPPER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL
IN AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MANY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
IN MANY SPOTS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OFFING
THOUGH. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OR AT LEAST WEAKEN ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM...TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND/OR SHIFTS TO THE EAST IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  95  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       70  93  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  95  73  95 /  30  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  94  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  93  71  96 /  20  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        71  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  95  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         72  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64








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