Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 240532 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...
High pressure will build over the area through the period resulting
in widespread VFR conditions. Winds will be light.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017)
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are past the short term and
mainly mid-week and over the weekend. River levels have come up a
bit with the recent rains, and the forecast has possible
additional rain Wednesday to Thursday, then again over the
weekend. The excess rain will contribute to the possibility of
elevated rivers and flooding, as well as some flash flooding
dependent on location off convection. Also some risk of strong to
severe storms will be possible with the Wednesday to Thursday
system, then again over the weekend.
Today, the stratus cloud deck quickly thinned dissipated as the
cooler and drier air filtered into AR. Only the far southeast had
any ceilings left. Afternoon temperatures were cool and mainly in
the 60s. Dewpoint temperatures were in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Winds were elevated from the northwest to north at 10 to 20 mph
with some higher gusts.
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday Night
Clear skies are forecast tonight with below normal lows in the
40s. Dry on Monday as the surface high pressure settles over the
region. Light winds becoming south late in the day, with highs in
the 70s. Continued dry Monday night and Tuesday, with lows in the
50s, while highs in the 80s. Later Tuesday, the approaching
system from the west will start to spread clouds eastward, while
a south wind flow will bring back moisture levels to AR, and with
precip water values reaching around 1.5 inches over the region.
Also there will be some risk of isolated strong to severe storms
as the upper lift moves across AR. Current timing would be around
mid-day to the evening. Model timing is a bit different, with the
Euro slower than the GFS or NAM, and the Euro having the upper low
closer to northwest AR, while the others having lifted the upper
low well to the north of AR.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The long term will be active to say the least. Wednesday`s cold
front still looks to be progressive providing showers and
thunderstorm statewide. Severe weather parameters could support
strong to severe thunderstorms and will need to be monitored in the
coming days. The big change for the long term is the shift in timing
for the weekend heavy rainfall event. What looked like a Saturday
event has shift to Sunday. There`s also been an intro to a shortwave
in between (Friday). Either way, we are headed into an active period
and Arkansas will be in the track. Flooding and flash flooding
will need to be monitored.