Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 291803
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
103 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL FIR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER DARK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DO
AGREE IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE SUBTLE DETAILS AND TIMING HAVE LEFT
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL...ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. EVEN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES COULD BRING FLASH FLOODING...AND HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN
WOULD LEAD TO A QUICKER FLOODING THREAT. FOR NOW...HAVE WATCH GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH LATER
TO COVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST...AND HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW LIKE THE GFS IS SHOWING...RAIN CHANCES
MAY NEED TO BE BROUGHT BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH AND CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER...
WHETHER TO THE E TO SE OF AR...OR TO THE SE TO S OF AR. EURO HAS THE
LOW WEAKENING AND MOVING MORE OUT OF THE REGION FASTER THAN THE GFS.
WILL USE A SOLUTION CLOSER TO GFS AND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO AR...SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. SLIGHT TO A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY...WHILE A
BIT LOWER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES TO A BIT BELOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND RAIN.
OVERALL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  67  81  63 /  50  60  70  50
CAMDEN AR         86  68  81  66 /  70  50  70  60
HARRISON AR       79  63  75  58 /  80  70  70  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  67  80  65 /  70  60  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  68  82  66 /  50  60  70  50
MONTICELLO AR     86  69  82  67 /  50  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      81  66  80  63 /  80  60  70  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  65  77  60 /  60  70  70  50
NEWPORT AR        85  68  82  64 /  40  50  70  60
PINE BLUFF AR     86  69  81  66 /  50  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  67  80  64 /  70  70  70  40
SEARCY AR         84  67  82  65 /  50  50  70  60
STUTTGART AR      85  68  82  66 /  40  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CONWAY-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...56





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