Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 212344
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
644 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER IN
ARKANSAS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
BEING SOME PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CU ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH A WEAK
SURFACE FLOW...AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS...AGAIN EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD.
A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROMOTE THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD.  SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. FORECAST PARAMETERS
DO NOT PARTICULARLY INDICATE ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
RECENT OUTPUT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF
POOR SOIL MOISTURE REPRESENTATIONS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 90S BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY INITIATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN SYNC...THUS KEPT
THE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. ON ACCOUNT OF THE
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY...DROPPED TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  30
CAMDEN AR         63  92  68  93 /   0   0   0  20
HARRISON AR       64  91  68  91 /   0  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  93  69  94 /   0   0   0  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
MONTICELLO AR     66  92  69  93 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNT IDA AR      62  93  67  95 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        64  92  70  93 /   0   0   0  30
PINE BLUFF AR     66  91  70  93 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  30
SEARCY AR         64  92  69  92 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      67  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...225




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