Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221430 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
825 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF POLK AND SCOTT COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS NOTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH
AS RICH MOUNTAIN...WITH SLUSHY ROADS IN PLACES. PUT SNOW IN PARTS
OF THE OUACHITAS THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
IN MOST AREAS GIVEN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE WILL ERODE FROM THE NORTH SURROUNDING HIGH PRESSURE...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. SNOW WILL ONLY
LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO BEFORE ENDING. (46)
&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON...AND IFR
IN MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTH SHOULD MOSTLY STAY VFR.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 15 KNOTS. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TAFS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SHORT OF IT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED REMAINS
THE SAME. A QUASI-CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BACK OVER NEW
MEXICO TODAY...WITH A LEAD WAVE SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW SHIFT EAST
OVER ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST FRI NIGHT.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT A TRANSITION TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OR
POSSIBLY ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY AS A
DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH COULD
BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS THIS OCCURS...BUT IN GENERAL
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH SUCH THAT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EITHER.

GOING INTO A LITTLE MORE DETAIL...REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SPREADING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS SITUATED...GENERALLY
SPEAKING...VERY CLOSE TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST OF RUSSELLVILLE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING BENEATH
THIS ZONE WITH MORE SCATTERED RETURNS SEEN TO THE SOUTH OVER NE
TEXAS AND SRN ARKANSAS. EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
SHOULD FILL IN WITH MORE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION...BUT NOT UNTIL
LATER IN THE MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE FORT SMITH 88D SHOWS
THAT...AS SUSPECTED...THE MID LEVELS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS AND INDICATES THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS
BETWEEN APPROX 1500-2000 FT AGL. HOWEVER...SFC OBS FROM EVEN THE
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCALES IN THE STATE SHOW A SUFFICIENTLY WARM
SURFACE LAYER THAT SNOW SEEMS UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. I SUPPOSE IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT PLACES LIKE MT MAGAZINE OR THE LIKES COULD SEE
SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH MID MORNING IF/WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP
RATES OCCUR. BUT IN GENERAL IT SEEMS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
JUST A COLD RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THIS...REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF GRADUALLY COOLING SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS AND A DEVELOPING
DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING AND AFTER THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HAVE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
FORECAST OF LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS COULD PROVE TO BE GENEROUS. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE
QUITE WARM AND SFC TEMPS WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THAT BEING SAID...DEFORMATION BAND
PRECIPITATION IS PERSISTENT IN TERMS OF PRECIP RATES SO IF SNOW
DOES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OR IF IT PERIODICALLY TURNS TO COMPLETE
SNOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BRIEF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
COULD OCCUR.

THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON...WRAPPING UP ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND RETURNING THE
FORECAST AREA TO DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL AGAIN MAKE THEIR APPEARANCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY
WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME...LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PERIOD WILL
END WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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