Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 271704
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1204 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAM/ CONTINUE TO HINT AT SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. A SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AT <= 6KTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

55

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MANY
OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION POPPING
UP...AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO
FORM ACROSS SE MISSOURI AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP CHANCES. PATCHY FOG
COULD BE SEEN DURING THE MORNING HRS...BUT HAS BECOME LESS COMMON
IN RECENT DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UNDER THE HIGH...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...AND MAINLY DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY...AND FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE ROCKIES.
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A RAINMAKER.

IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND THE
AIR WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL CARRY INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM AS THE EFFECTS OF THE FROPA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL...WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW. OVER
TIME...TEMPS WILL REBOUND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY SUN.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  76  96  77 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR        100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       94  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    99  79  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  78  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  79  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      98  76  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  75  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        97  77  97  79 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         98  75  98  76 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      98  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PERRY-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CONWAY-FULTON-
IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN
BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99



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