Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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639
FXUS64 KLZK 220146
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
846 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The cold front continues to move through central Arkansas this
evening. The front will slowly move to north Louisiana by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms could
develop at anytime tonight. A line of thunderstorms in Missouri
will move into north Arkansas later tongiht. Light rain and
drizzle is expected in most areas on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 644 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017
)

AVIATION...
A few light showers continue across central Arkansas. A short wave
will move through the area tonight and bring small rain chances to
the area. Low clouds will hang around through the day Wednesday.
VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 229 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Most of the convective activity that was across SRN MO has shifted
east into WRN TN/KY this afternoon...though some additional SHRA had
developed further south across parts of the LZK CWA from Clinton
westward toward Oark. Sfc obs earlier showed the nearly stationary
frontal boundary still across far NRN AR...stretching east to south
of the MO Bootheel. However...this front is starting to move SW over
the past hr or so.

Expect chances for SHRA/TSRA to remain highest across the NRN half
of the state through this evening...as the front picks up some SW
momentum. Expect the front to have dropped SW to near the Arklatex
region by around sunrise Wed morning...with some chances for SHRA
and a few TSRA remaining along and just behind this front overnight.
Will then see decreasing POPs throughout the day...but will still
see lingering precip chance for rain and even some DZ. Due to
persistent low clouds and a NE wind...expect temps to actually drop
to below normal for Wed afternoon highs...with generally 50s and
60s expected. Some 70s may still be seen across the SRN counties.

Expect dry conditions for Thu...even as the cold front lifts back
north as a warm front. As a result of returned SRLY flow...expect
temps to warm back above normal. These warmer conditions will then
persist into the long term period...along with a return of precip
chances.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Several strong upper systems will affect the mid south during this
period.  The first is expected to promote a linear MCS during the
late Friday/early Saturday time frame. A second round of convection
is expected late in the period. Later forecasts will refine timing,
and expected convective mode.

Above normal temperatures will prevail during this period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

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