Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221743 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE
STATE FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ENTER WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...BUT ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NE TO E AT 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH SUNSET...THEN
LOWER TO 3 TO 8 MPH FROM THE E TO SE OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS WILL BE
SEEN TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE STATE WITH HIRES MODELS CONTINUING
TO BOTH SLOW DOWN...AND DIMINISH PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE
STATE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THE CURRENT SETUP IS FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS SEEN WITH HEAVY RAIN TWO WEEKS AGO...AND THOSE SYSTEMS
THAT DEVELOPED IN OKLAHOMA DID NOT DIMINISH BEFORE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS. SIMILARLY...THE MODELS DID SHOW THOSE
WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE STATE. ALTHOUGH DESPITE THESE
CONCERNS...DO BELIEVE THE DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FROM MAKING IT INTO THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND BRING A RETURN
OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE STATE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE DEWPOINTS BY OVER 20 DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BACKED OFF ON BOTH POPS
AND QPF WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO OVER 2 INCH RANGE...SO DO EXPECT THIS TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER IN THE STATE...AND LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS WITH QPF
AMOUNTS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. AT THIS POINT...DO AGREE WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO IT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A QUICK ONE
TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED UPSTREAM ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL DEFINITELY LEAD TO NOT ONLY
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...BUT RIVER FLOODING AS WELL.

MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT AT HOLDING ON TO THE RAIN ON MONDAY WITH THE
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER. AGAIN DID LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AND GEM AND
DECREASE POPS A BIT QUICKER. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AND CONTINUE INTO
THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL CONT ON TUE AND MUCH OF WED AS YET ANOTHER UPR
LVL STORM SYS MOVES THRU THE REGION. LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WL CONT TO
BE A CONCERN AND WL ONLY ENHANCE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVR THE FA.

THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONT TO INDC THAT THE UPR PATTERN WL DE-
AMPLIFY DURG THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW AN UPR RDG
TO BLD INTO THE MID-SOUTH...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS BY THIS TIMEFRAME WL BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF SCTD
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR BOONE-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$








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