Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 120749
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
249 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

An upper ridge over the Midwest will move east today as an upper
trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. This upper trough
moves through Arkansas tonight. Another upper trough moves into the
Rockies Wednesday. Southwest flow aloft develops over Arkansas
Wednesday, ahead of this trough.

Mostly sunny conditions are expected today. A short wave moves
through the state tonight and will bring a slight chance of showers
to the northwest. A warm front develops across Missouri Wednesday
and warm and moist air will enter Arkansas on the southerly flow.
This will destabilize the atmosphere and lead to additional rain
chances Wednesday night. The highest rain chances will be in the
west.

A warming trend will continue. Highs today will be in the upper 60s
to mid 70s and Wednesday highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. Lows
tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s and Wednesday night lows
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

An active upper lvl pattern will begin to influence weather over a
three day period of unsettled weather across the Natural State as a
series of SWTs approach the state within the upper lvl flow pattern
as an upper lvl closed low becomes positioned across the
Southwestern region of the CONUS.

Starting the three day target of opportunity on Thursday, at the
sfc, a low pressure center will be present across Kansas with an
attendant warm front extending eastward across Kansas and Missouri
providing a relevant moisture tongue with Td values in the middle to
upper 60s across central and southern Arkansas. The warm front will
also assist in a corridor of much warmer than normal temperatures to
overspread the state ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s across the
CWA and state of Arkansas in advance of the cold front providing
ample ingredients for instability. Latest model parameters continue
to provide a signal toward the development of strong to severe
thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening across the
CWA. Instability in the form of MUCAPE looks to be plentiful across
the state with 2,000 J/kg to 3,000 J/kg common between several
models. SRH values which had trended lower earlier in the week have
been on a constant uptick throughout the week now varying between
model runs consistently between 150 m^2/s^2 and 250 m^2/s^2 which is
just at and above for the threshold determined to be conducive for
the development of severe weather including the possibility of a few
tornadoes with hodographs with a large looping sickle shape.
Additionally, 700mb to 500 mb lapse rates have consistently been 7.0
C/km and 8.0/km along with significant hail parameters between 1.5
and 2.5 which are both parameters that indicate the threat of large
hail looks to in the cards if this near-storm environment does
materialize. Simply put, on Thursday, all modes of severe weather
(damaging wind gusts, large hail, a few tornadoes) all look to be
possible. It will be imperative across Arkansas, especially the
western half of the state to be prepared for all modes of severe
weather and have multiple ways to receive the latest severe weather
info.

A hopeful fail outcome or lack of severe weather on Thursday would
be if rain and a few strong storms predicted to be across Arkansas
on Thursday early morning take their time meandering across the
state and the atmosphere is not given ample time to become
destabilized later in the day, for example if cloudiness and rain-
cooled air keeps the atmosphere stable and instability at a minimum
preventing the outcome of severe weather Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. Finally, a few solutions do present a capped
atmosphere on Thursday where thunderstorms never are allowed to
materialize, but we cannot bank on a few solutions as the
ingredients will be in place for discrete supercell development.

On Friday and Saturday, the cold front will have completed the
journey across the state along the Mississippi River by Friday
morning, but begins the process of slowing down and becoming almost
stationary keeping rain and scattered storms in the forecast on
Friday and Saturday, with the highest chances for POPs across
central, southern, and eastern Arkansas.

SUNDAY/MONDAY:

The end of the long-term forecast period looks to be a transitional
period, especially with regards to temperature with a dry cold front
moving through the state during the day on Sunday. On Monday the
progression of the cold front will become sluggish, but near the
Arkansas/Louisiana border allowing a much colder and drier airmass
to spill into the CWA behind the FROPA. Expect a period of fair and
dry weather with temperatures becoming near to below average
compared to climatological normals for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

High pressure has moved east of Arkansas and surface southerly
flow has returned. Mainly high clouds are expected central and
south through the period. Late in the period there will be a
slight chance of showers in the northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  54  76  62 /  10  10  10  20
Camden AR         72  54  75  62 /   0  10  10  20
Harrison AR       72  55  75  60 /  10  20  10  20
Hot Springs AR    72  54  73  62 /   0  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  74  56  76  64 /   0  10  10  20
Monticello AR     72  56  75  64 /   0  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      72  55  73  61 /  10  10  10  30
Mountain Home AR  72  54  76  60 /  10  10  10  20
Newport AR        70  54  75  62 /   0  10  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     72  55  75  62 /   0  10  10  10
Russellville AR   73  54  75  61 /  10  10  10  20
Searcy AR         71  51  75  60 /   0  10  10  20
Stuttgart AR      71  55  74  63 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51


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