Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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176
FXUS64 KLZK 160900
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

Cooler and drier airmass contd to advect SWD into AR overnight,
following the passage of a CDFNT on Sun. Even with a light N breeze,
early mrng temps ranged from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

The next few days wl be dominated by a ridge of SFC high pres that
wl set up acrs AR. Highs today will range fm the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Expect another chilly night tonight, with light winds/clear skies,
with lows in the lower/mid 40s. Similar conds are expected Tue with
temps approaching seasonal norms.
&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

Overall the models are in very good agreement through Friday when
they do begin to diverge somewhat heading into the weekend regarding
the placement of an advancing upper trough. Slower GFS solution may
be the better choice at that time with downstream ridging over the
SE conus slowing its progession down somewhat. As such, will lean in
that direction of the GFS towards the end of the week with a general
model consensus preceding it.

Period initiates with surface high pressure located over the east
central part of the nation. However, its influence will extend all
the way back to the mid south through the end of the work week. As
such, dry conditions are expected with temperatures warming back to
above normal levels as the week progresses.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will develop/move onshore along
the west coast late in the week and make its way into the central
high plains by late Saturday. Moisture will start to increase with
this feature with precipitation chances returning to the forecast
late Saturday and into Sunday as a cold front moves across the area.

Given the lack of widespread and significant precipitation over the
past few weeks and dry conditions expected through the work week,
wildfire danger will remain moderate to high. Afternoon humidity is
expected to drop into the 30th percentile for most of the upcoming
week adding to the potential of wildfires.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...44 / Long Term...56



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