Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 150000 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
600 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.Aviation...

Overall MVFR conditions will be seen, with patchy areas of IFR and
VFR ceilings. An area of light rain and showers will move east of AR
this evening, while through the evening and Wednesday night, mainly
very light rain or drizzle will be seen over mainly central and
southern AR. Areas of fog will also form with MVFR to IFR conditions
being seen after midnight through Thursday morning. Winds will be
south at 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts over northwest AR. A low
level jet will set up and low level wind shear will be possible at
all Taf sites. MVFR conditions with patchy IFR will start Thursday
morning, with some lifting of ceilings and improving visibilities as
winds increase on Thursday from the south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts
around 25 to 30 mph at times. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../  322 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday Night

Scattered showers in southeast Arkansas this afternoon will become
more isolated overnight. There were already low clouds/patchy fog
across the central/southern counties. Areas of fog will continue
overnight.

Late tonight and into Thursday, while clouds will continue, there
will not be much in the way of rain. It will be windy, with gusty
south/southwest winds in the forecast. Gusts from 30 to 40 mph
will be noted, especially across northern/eastern sections. As
the winds crank up, so will the temperatures. After steady/slowly
temperatures tonight, readings will be well above average on
Thursday.

The big feature in the near term will be a strong cold front
that will arrive from the north on Friday. Temperatures will
peak early in the day, but will drop as the day progresses.
Winds will also shift to the north/northeast. The front will
be accompanied by areas of rain and a few thunderstorms.

Good chances of rain will continue Friday night, and it will
likely get cold enough for at least a brief period of a
light wintry mix in northern sections of the state after
midnight. Impacts are expected to be minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Northwest flow will be over the western U.S. Saturday with an upper
ridge over the Pacific and an upper trough over the Plains and Great
Lakes. Southwest flow will return to Arkansas Sunday as the trough
digs into the Rockies. The trough deepens over the Rockies Monday
and Tuesday and into the Midwest by Wednesday.

Precipitation will be dissipating Saturday. Some light wintry
precipitation is possible in the north early, with rain
elsewhere. Not much snow accumulation is expected, one tenth to
two tenths at most. Saturday night will be dry, but the rain
chances return Sunday and continue through Tuesday. Added
thunderstorms for Monday through Tuesday with decent lift and
instability in the area associated with a cold front that
approaches Arkansas Monday and stalls over the state Tuesday. At
this point it looks likely that several inches of rain will be
possible Tuesday and Wednesday, with 2 to 4 inches in the
northwest and 1 to 3 inches in the southeast half of the area.
After below normal temperatures Saturday, a warming trend will
begin on Sunday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  72  46  47 /  10  10  60  60
Camden AR         58  74  59  60 /  20  20  20  60
Harrison AR       58  72  37  40 /  10  20  70  30
Hot Springs AR    55  73  54  55 /  20  20  40  60
Little Rock   AR  57  73  54  54 /  20  20  40  70
Monticello AR     62  74  59  60 /  20  20  20  60
Mount Ida AR      57  72  51  52 /  10  10  40  50
Mountain Home AR  57  73  39  41 /  10  20  70  40
Newport AR        55  71  47  48 /  20  20  60  70
Pine Bluff AR     57  73  57  58 /  20  20  30  70
Russellville AR   58  74  50  50 /  10  10  60  50
Searcy AR         56  72  50  51 /  20  20  50  60
Stuttgart AR      57  73  55  55 /  20  20  30  70
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...51



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