Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 222332 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL TODAY IS MOVING EAST AND
FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT
2-4 HOURS. WITH HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT. HAVE PUT SOME TEMPO 3-4SM VSBY IN
AT KHOT...KADF...AND KLIT AROUND DAWN AS THOSE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
PLACES TO SEE CLEAR SKIES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE
FOGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE IS
GOING FOR LOW VSBY AT NRN SITES AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOG AT KHRO AND KBPK AT THIS TIME THOUGH SO LEFT
THEM VFR. KPBF AND KLLQ MAY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO JUST HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE STATE. MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS REMAINING ACROSS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...MUCH OF
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME PATCHY FOG AND CLOUD COVER WAS
SEEN...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 50S SO FAR THIS SUN.

DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TOO MUCH MORE TODAY...WITH SOME MID 50S
TO LOW 60S THE RESULTING HIGH TEMPS. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POPS DROPPING FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE EAST OF THE STATE BY
SUNRISE MON MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE BY MON MORNING...WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL AND THESE
LIGHT WINDS...DO THINK SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL BE SEEN DURING THE
MORNING HRS MON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN AR WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE RAINFALL AS OF LATE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES MON
MORNING...WEAK SRLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TEMPS WARM
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OVER SWRN KS AND WRN
OK TUE MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BY TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE
STATE...WHICH MAY HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST DATA IS
SHOWING MU-CAPE ACROSS THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE OVER 1K TO
EVEN SOME AREAS NEARING 2K J/KG LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HRS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SVR TUE EVENING AS THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHR. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY STRONG OR SVR
STORMS WILL DEPEND ON BREAKING THE CAP. EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA TO DROP
SE INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORE...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER TIME.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SEEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS
TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE WED NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...BREEZY SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE WELL INTO
THE 70S AND EVEN SOME 80S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER
REMAINS LIMITED WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN MORE MU-CAPE...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN
PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WILL MORE LIKELY SEE A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT WED EVENING...WHICH WILL DROP
SE OF THE CWA BY EARLY ON THU IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BECOME STRONG TO SVR GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD BE REALIZED WITH
THE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERCOMING THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS OUT...AND DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR WX IN THE COMING DAYS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGH KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SEND A
SECOND COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE 50S...WITH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE CAME BACK
EVEN COLDER...BUT DID TEMPER THE READING SOMEWHAT...BUT THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  45  72  53 /  90  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         60  45  74  51 /  70  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       57  44  73  51 /  60   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  44  74  53 /  80  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  45  73  52 /  90  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     59  48  72  53 /  90  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      57  43  73  52 /  70  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  45  74  52 /  40  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        63  44  71  50 /  90  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  46  71  51 /  90  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  43  74  52 /  90  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         61  45  72  50 /  90  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      57  45  71  50 /  90  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






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