Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 071737
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1137 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.AVIATION...07/18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR cigs wl linger over NRN AR for a few hrs this aftn, then
scatter out. Otherwise, VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD and mid
and high lvl clouds cont to stream acrs the region. N/NW winds
this aftn wl diminish and bcm light and variable tngt. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 312 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

A reinforcing shot of cold...very dry air will move into the
state this Thu as a new cold front drops SE into the state
starting this morning. Strong SFC high pressure will settle across
the region by late tonight...with the coldest temps of the season
so far expected by Fri morning. Before the SFC high settles
across the state however...NRLY winds will keep temps in the 30s
and 40s for highs this Thu...even with less cloud cover than
observed in recent days. Lows tonight will drop down into the mid
teens to mid 20s by Fri morning.

Another cool day is expected for Fri afternoon as well...with highs
only in the upper 30s to upper 40s...a few deg warmer than expected
this Thu. The SFC high will shift east by the end of the short term
period...with some weak SRLY flow returning to the CWA. This will
allow temps to warm a bit for Fri night...with mainly upper teens to
upper 20s for lows Fri night.

With only a dry forecast expected in the short term period...the
primary forecast concern will be a moderate to high wildfire danger
continuing. Dewpts will drop down into the teens and 20s by
tonight...though with temps also remaining cool...min RH values will
be generally in the 30 to 45 percent range today. Some NW winds of 5
to 10 mph will be expected at 20 ft AGL...with some occasional
gusts over 15 mph. Red flag conditions are not expected given these
values...but expect fuel moisture levels to continue to dry out even
after the rainfall observed this past Mon night. Many burn bans
remain in place...and no improvements are expected in the
foreseeable future.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Not a lot of surprises forthcoming this morning as all medium range
models continue to show a highly amplified pattern characterized by
western Conus ridging and wide scale troughing east of the Rockies.
With no significant model differences to speak of, a blend of
solutions will be used this morning with a lean towards the
slightly more consistent ECMWF.

Several shortwaves will moves through the region during the period,
caught up in the prevailing northwest flow. These shortwaves will
move through with no precipitation and only occasional clouds and
reinforcing shots of cool air to mark their presence.

Temperatures will be a little tricky based on some subtle timing
differences between the individual models concerning these troughs.
Overall temperatures will average below normal through the period
with a brief warm up on Monday as area will be between shortwave
troughs. Overall the MAV/MEX numbers look reasonable and are
generally accepted.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


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