Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 201200
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS SRN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AND ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT KLLQ THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z OR SO
BEFORE LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
AT ALL SITES BEFORE MVFR CIGS SPREAD BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTH. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL PUSH MVFR CIGS BACK INTO
KLLQ...KADF...AND KHOT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING...AND TO KPBF
AND KLIT BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. NRN SITES WILL EVENTUALLY SEE MVFR CIGS
AS WELL BUT THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE LAST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
MOST LIKELY. RAIN WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED VCSH AT KADF AND KLLQ AFTER
06Z BUT DID NOT PUT TEMPO OR PREVAILING -SHRA IN AT ANY SITES DUE
TO IT LIKELY ARRIVING WITHIN THE LAST 4 HOURS OR SO OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FROM
THE NORTH TODAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE
FRONT COMES TO A HALT...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EVEN
SO...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY/FRIDAY.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE GOING UP...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MERCURY LEVELS EXPECTED. THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
TRACK INTO TEXAS. THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL GET HERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

MOST SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS...AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
ARKANSAS AND INTO ILLINOIS. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. THE DRY
SLOT SHOULD CLEAR SKIES UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS SO SUNDAY WILL BE A
WARM DAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND POST FRONTAL JET STREAK MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...BUT
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION WILL MARKEDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE DAY SUN.
LACK OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MEANS THAT
ANY NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS WILL LAG BEHIND BY A DAY OR SO...WITH
LOWS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY NIGHT...LONG AFTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THUS ANY
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY TUE MORNING
AND AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
ORIGINATE IN THE PAC NW SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO BE MORE PRECISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  38  51  44 /   0  30  50  50
CAMDEN AR         58  48  59  50 /  10  50  50  40
HARRISON AR       50  37  50  43 /   0  20  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  45  57  50 /  10  40  60  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  42  56  48 /  10  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  46  59  50 /  10  40  50  30
MOUNT IDA AR      56  46  56  50 /  10  40  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  36  48  41 /   0  20  50  50
NEWPORT AR        50  38  52  46 /   0  30  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     55  45  58  50 /  10  50  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  41  54  47 /  10  30  60  50
SEARCY AR         51  40  54  47 /  10  30  50  40
STUTTGART AR      53  42  56  49 /  10  40  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






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