Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS64 KLZK 091719 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1219 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY FEW-SCT250
MOVING INTO THE STATE AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. SFC HIGH
PRES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS BY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. PRES
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...5-8KT...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE GUSTS TO 20-25KT AT ALL SITES
TOMORROW...BEGINNING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM STARTS TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS
AT THIS TIME REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE EVER POPULAR
BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAYS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE ALONG THE
GULF COAST TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING IN RESPONSE. AIR MASS COMING IN WILL ALSO BE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM TODAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FLATTENS IT OUT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
STATE. BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER
BY THE END OF THURSDAY WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. MODELS
AGREE THAT A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING LIMITED...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE NORTH. BOUNDARY ADVANCES BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO INCREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AS PATTERN
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN WITH NEXT UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
A RESULT BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE COOLEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TODAY UNTIL SOUTHERLY FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD
AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A HEAVY RAINFALL SET UP...WITH THE FRONT
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EUROPEAN HAS MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE A SEVERE STORM SET UP. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...WITH RAINFALL MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...SOME TEMPERATURES COULD FALL NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  47  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         73  47  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       70  50  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  48  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  47  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     70  46  76  53 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  49  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  48  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        70  47  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     69  47  76  54 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  49  77  55 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         70  47  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      69  46  76  54 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.