Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 191949
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
249 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Data from the water vapor channel continues to indicate the
progression of short wave energy...moving eastward over western
oklahoma and western north texas. Precipitation associated with
this feature is approaching from the west and southwest...per data
from local radars. Moisture transport to the region...ahead of
the short wave energy..is expected to be affected by the
convective complex now affecing southeast Texas. Greatest
coverage of rainfall overnight is expected in the 00z-05z
timeframe.

Some scattered...lingering light rain will be possible Friday
morning...otherwise dry conditions expected for the rest of this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
A shortwave ridge aloft will dominate the forecast area over the
weekend, and this ridge will break down on Monday as a southwesterly
flow reestablishes itself. Broad trof over the western US will
continue to kick out shortwaves to the east, which will result in
rain chances throughout the entire workweek.

At the surface high pressure will dominate this weekend, and this
will slide eastward bringing a return flow of warm and humid air
from the south. Toward the latter half of the forecast period the
models are forecasting a cold front to stall out across the northern
half of the forecast area. However, the models have been having
difficulty handling the position and timing of slow moving fronts
lately, and am not putting too much stock into the specifics of this
boundary just yet.

With the increasing southerly flow and anticipated shortwaves
passing across the area in the southwesterly flow aloft, I have kept
POPs in the forecast for almost all areas in the Monday thru
Thursday night time frame.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     55  74  55  76 /  50  40  10  10
Camden AR         59  78  60  83 /  70  40  10  10
Harrison AR       52  71  53  74 /  50  30  10  10
Hot Springs AR    58  76  59  80 /  60  30  10  10
Little Rock   AR  58  76  61  80 /  60  40  10  10
Monticello AR     61  78  60  80 /  60  60  10  10
Mount Ida AR      56  76  56  80 /  60  20  10  10
Mountain Home AR  53  72  54  75 /  40  30  10  10
Newport AR        57  75  57  77 /  50  50  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     59  76  60  79 /  60  50  10  10
Russellville AR   57  75  57  79 /  60  30  10  10
Searcy AR         56  75  57  78 /  50  40  10  10
Stuttgart AR      60  75  61  79 /  60  50  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...53



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