Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 252256 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
456 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NE OF THE STATE ON WED...WITH
MAINLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER THE MAIN IMPACT FOR AR.
HOWEVER..SOME RAIN COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NERN
AREAS OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...MENTIONED SOME -RA AT BPK FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME BREEZY WEST AND NW WINDS
WED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST TO SECOND PERIOD CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION...ALSO TYPES...EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY.
ANY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX FAR NORTH. THEN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARM UP.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S NORTH TO
THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS BOTTOMING OUT
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. UPSTREAM
DO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH...20S CENTRAL...AND LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. 12Z KLZK HAD A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES...WITH A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER SE AR HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AND
THIN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW...AS THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AR...AND A COLD FRONT MAKES PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING A LIGHT QPF AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE
STARTING OFF QUITE DRY...NOT EXPECTED MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM
AND HAVE HELD POPS TO SLIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...SOME MORNING LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD COOL A BIT AS ANY PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT...AND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW
MAYBE SEEN OVER FAR NORTHERN AR. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL RAIN
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS DO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AR CLOSER TO 18Z...AND SOUNDING DATA IS NOT BULLISH ON
WINTER PRECIP FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT BY
EVENING...BREAKING UP CLOUDS AND DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS
WILL BE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS...WHILE STAYING
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY...TO 40S TO 50S THURSDAY...THEN WARMING
FRIDAY. LOWS MAINLY 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...20S TO 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ALOFT. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER ZONAL AND NOT AT FIRST GLANCE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF WARM TEMPERATURES...THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. IN FACT...IF
YOU BELIEVE SOME GUIDANCE...MID 70S WILL BE COMMONPLACE FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO THAT
FAR WITH THE FORECAST YET THOUGH AS WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SOME MORNING CLOUDS BOTH WEEKEND DAYS.

THE WARM-UP WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER AS A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT ANOTHER WARM PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  53  28  44 /  10  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         33  62  31  56 /   0  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       33  50  24  43 /  10  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    34  58  30  53 /   0  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  58  31  50 /   0  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     35  62  32  50 /   0  10  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      31  58  26  53 /   0  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  50  24  43 /  10  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        33  53  30  44 /  10  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     33  60  32  48 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  55  26  49 /   0  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         29  55  25  44 /   0  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      34  58  31  46 /   0  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




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