Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201145 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
540 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
Low clouds/MVFR conditions will be common today. Ceilings above 3000
feet, or breaks in the clouds may lead to VFR conditions in places
this afternoon. As moisture increases tonight with higher dewpoints,
clouds will lower once again and some fog will form. IFR/MVFR
conditions are in the forecast. As far as precipitation, only
isolated showers are in the forecast, with patchy drizzle tonight.
Winds through tonight will be south/southeast at 8 to 14 mph with
gusts from 16 to 24 mph. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Milder air is making its way into Arkansas, and will continue
to do so through the near term with a warming trend in the
forecast. While temperatures go up, there will be a lot of
clouds. Rain will spotty today, and more widespread on Sunday.

The pattern has shifted from a flow out of Canada to a more
dominant southern stream. One system will go by to the south
today, with a much more significant system entering the Rockies
from the west tonight. This system will be our weather maker on
Sunday.

Ahead of the big system, a dewpoint surge will be noted tonight.
Low clouds, drizzle, and fog are expected, and this will continue
into Sunday morning. By the late afternoon and into the nighttime
hours, the system will trigger scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms west of Little Rock. Precipitation will build
to the east through dawn Monday.

At this point, while wind energy/shear will be high surrounding
the system, instability will be marginal. MUCAPE values will
generally be 500 J/kg or less. So, any storms that develop will
move quickly, but few storms should become severe.

Because the system is progressive, rainfall will not be
excessive. But, with a drought continuing, any rain is
appreciated. Half inch to inch and a half amounts are in the
forecast.

Temperatures through the period will be above average.
&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
An upper low pressure system will be in the Plains Monday and will
move through the Great Lakes Tuesday. Westerly flow over Arkansas
early Wednesday will become northwest late Wednesday. An upper low
will move through west Texas Wednesday night into northeast Texas
Thursday night passing through Arkansas Friday.

A cold front will be exiting eastern Arkansas at the beginning of
the period. Will keep the chance of showers in far eastern sections
of the CWFA for early Monday. These should clear out of the area
quickly in the morning, and clouds will decrease. Dry air will move
into the area for Tuesday and Wednesday. Clouds will increase late
Thursday into Friday with the area of low pressure. Chances for
showers will also increase Friday. Near to slightly above normal
temperatures are expected through the period.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     54  46  63  47 /  20  20  30  70
Camden AR         64  56  69  48 /  20  20  30  70
Harrison AR       59  49  65  40 /  10  10  40  90
Hot Springs AR    57  53  65  45 /  20  20  40  80
Little Rock   AR  57  50  65  47 /  20  20  30  70
Monticello AR     62  54  68  52 /  20  10  20  90
Mount Ida AR      58  54  66  43 /  20  20  40  80
Mountain Home AR  58  47  65  43 /  10  20  30  90
Newport AR        53  45  63  50 /  20  20  20  90
Pine Bluff AR     60  52  66  49 /  20  20  30  80
Russellville AR   58  50  66  43 /  20  20  40  80
Searcy AR         54  47  64  47 /  20  20  30  80
Stuttgart AR      56  49  64  48 /  20  20  20  80
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...51


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