Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 150744
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
244 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

Calm conditions ongoing across the LZK CWA early this
morning...though some patchy fog is attempting to develop for some
areas. These areas that will see some fog potential are areas that
saw at least some rainfall on Fri...especially areas that saw the
heaviest rainfall. There could be a few spots seen brief dense fog
as well. Have also kept some small chances for SHRA/TSRA this
morning...with any outflow boundaries and the weak frontal boundary
draped over the state.

This weak front will continue to slowly drift south this Sat before
becoming washed out across central/SRN sections of the state tonight
into Sun. With this front in the vicinity...will see best POPs
across the central and SRN sections of the state this afternoon. The
best chances for seeing SHRA/TSRA will shift slightly south for Sun
as the front sags a bit further south. However...expect mainly
afternoon isolated to scattered convective activity.

While an isolated strong to SVR storm may be seen...the threat for
organized SVR weather looks fairly limited. Damaging downburst winds
and some isolated large hail will be the primary threats with the
strongest storms...along with some locally heavy rainfall.

Temps will hover near or even below normal for this Sat afternoon
and for Sun...with highs in the low 80s to low 90s...and lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. As a result of the slightly cooler
temps...heat index values should remain below 100 for most sites
both afternoons...with a site or two briefly increasing over 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Early in the week, upper ridging will build in. Shunting deep
moisture away from the region. Though we may have isolated diurnal
convection, much of the area should stay dry. Temperatures will warm
through the week, but stay within a few degrees of average.

Possibly late in the week or some time next weekend, there could be
a breakdown or weekness in the ridge, which would allow for
increased rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  70  90  69 /  40  20  10   0
Camden AR         90  73  91  73 /  50  30  30  10
Harrison AR       86  67  89  67 /  20  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    90  72  91  71 /  50  20  20  10
Little Rock   AR  89  73  90  73 /  50  30  20   0
Monticello AR     90  73  89  73 /  50  30  40  10
Mount Ida AR      90  70  90  69 /  50  20  20  10
Mountain Home AR  87  68  90  68 /  20  10  10   0
Newport AR        87  70  90  70 /  40  20  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     89  73  89  73 /  50  30  30  10
Russellville AR   90  72  92  71 /  40  20  20   0
Searcy AR         88  71  90  70 /  50  20  20   0
Stuttgart AR      89  73  90  73 /  50  30  20  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...57



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