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000
FXUS64 KLZK 121741 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1241 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.AVIATION...
SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL REMAIN
AROUND 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ARKANSAS RIGHT BEFORE 12Z...AND WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...AND WILL BRING HOT/MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. RIDGE
WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL
CREATE MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL DRIVE A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES
IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

FRONT MAY MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT NOT TOO FAR TO
THE SOUTH. IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT...
BUT NOTHING DRASTIC. IF ANYTHING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER
TO SEASONAL. HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH EITHER.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH THE FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MISSOURI. THAT WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIDGE ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF BUCKLING AS
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
FLATTENING OUT AND SHIFTING EAST OF ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY...WHILE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH STILL KEEPING THEM
IN CHANCE CATEGORIES...AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER ON MOVING BY TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
REST OF THIS WEEK...THAT IS MID 90S. NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW BOUTS OF CONVECTION SO EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58