Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181914
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
214 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Some isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA have developed across several
areas in the CWA early this Mon afternoon in response to the daytime
heating...and with the influence of the upper ridge lessening
allowing for an upper level disturbance to move over portions of NRN
AR. While not everyone will see precip today...chances will remain
higher than in previous day for a large portion of the CWA through
early this evening. Expect precip chances to decrease shortly after
sunset. With light winds overnight and high moisture levels...some
patchy fog may again be seen Tue morning.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should be lower on Tue with the lack of an
upper level disturbance moving overhead. Even so...will keep some
slight chance to low end chance pops for isolated convection on Tue
afternoon with nearly zonal upper flow remaining. Similar conditions
will again be seen on Wed...though a bit more upper ridging will be
seen. Have only slight chance POPs as a result for some afternoon
convection. Temps through the period will remain mainly above normal
for mid/late Sep.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

A very large longwave trough is expected to carve it`s way across
the western Us all of the extended period. While this will spell
much cooler and wetter weather across the west, the eastern half of
the US will remain under persistent mid-level ridging. As a result,
slightly above normal temperatures are expected throughout the
latter forecast periods. Rain chances through at least Friday will
be isolated at best, with the best chances across southern Arkansas
where the effects of the ridging will be less. Chances for rain may
improve a little by Sunday statewide as the center of the upper
ridge lifts further north and some tropical moisture and weak
troughing allow for an increase in diurnal activity. No frontal
impacts are expected through at least Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  90  71  90 /  20  20  10  20
Camden AR         71  91  72  89 /  10  30  10  20
Harrison AR       65  88  68  89 /  10  20  10  20
Hot Springs AR    71  91  72  90 /  10  20  10  20
Little Rock   AR  72  91  72  90 /  10  20  10  20
Monticello AR     71  90  72  89 /  10  30  10  30
Mount Ida AR      69  90  72  89 /  10  20  10  20
Mountain Home AR  66  89  70  89 /  10  20  10  10
Newport AR        69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     71  91  71  90 /  10  20  10  20
Russellville AR   69  92  72  90 /  10  20  10  20
Searcy AR         68  90  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
Stuttgart AR      71  91  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...32



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