Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 250556 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1255 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES IN ISOLATED AREAS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS.
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AT 5000 TO 6000 FEET MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY EVENING...AND
EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE
TEMP TREND. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN
STORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER SOME
RELIEF IS ON THE HORIZON AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATER
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. ALBEIT
ONLY SLIGHTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING
HEATWAVE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...IT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT
DAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S OR CLOSE TO 100 POSSIBLE FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ENOUGH LOWERING IN H5
HEIGHTS TO KNOCK AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...OR IN
OTHER WORDS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN LOW...LESS THAN 20
PERCENT...THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN THAT
A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH SUCCESSIVE
AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE RAIN...BUT THE
CHANCES LOOK TO BE AT LEAST WORTH MENTIONING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIP
CHANCES GENERALLY LOW. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE LESS THAN SEEN THIS CURRENT WEEKEND...AND CURRENT TEMP
FORECASTS REFLECT SUCH DIFFERENCES. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE.

BY THIS COMING WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST...WITH
MORE OF A SWRLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE SAT...AND GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE  AREA BY
LATE IN THE FORECAST. AS A RESULT...DO HAVE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND...AS WELL
AS KEEPING TEMPS AT OR FALLING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL
COOL DOWN WITH DRIER AIR DOES NOT LOOK VERY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  99  74  96 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         73  97  74  94 /   0  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       71  96  74  95 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  97  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  97  76  94 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     75  96  75  93 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      71  96  73  93 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73 100  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        76  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  95  74  93 /   0  20  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  98  74  96 /   0  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         75  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      75  96  74  93 /   0  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$







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