Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 192306 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
606 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...



A cold front will push SE through the state tonight through Thu
afternoon...with some SHRA and TSRA possible along this front.
SRLY winds will switch to the north behind the front...along with
some low CIGS. MVFR or lower conditions will be possible behind
the front and with any convective activity. Expect some improving
conditions by late morning across the NWRN sites...then in the
afternoon hrs further south.



Short Term...Tonight through Friday...

Upper level ridge over the SERN US will start to move eastward as a
trof moves into the midsection of the country. SFC frontal boundary
is presently draped across the Ohio Valley, into srn MO, and to the
SW thru OK and TX. The boundary across SWRN MO right now is quasi-
stationary, and there are some fairly impressive storms at this
time in that area.

Timing the progress of the front into the CWA has been tricky the
past few days, but right now it appears that it should start to move
this evening, and should reach HRO around midnight, or a bit before.
As the upper level trof digs in and sfc high pressure starts to
build, the front should make its way across the rest of the area by
midday tomorrow.

Most of the convection has been pretty close to the front, so that
has made the timing of POPs a bit simplified. Best chances will be
overnight across the north, tomorrow morning across central AR, and
late morning to midday across the SE.

On the matter of severe weather potential, I think the SPC has the
risk zones in fairly good order. The heating of the day will be lost
as the front and the bulk of the convection moves into the area.
Midlevel instability values will likely be sufficient enough to
support some decent convection across the NWRN fringes of the area,
and there could be a few storms that produce severe hail and/or
wind. However the threat will diminish quickly as the front
progresses overnight.

Long Term...Friday Night through Wednesday...

No sig changes made to the extended fcst today as high pres wl be
the primary weather feature ovr the Mid-South. Drier and cooler
airmass will prevail heading into the weekend thanks to a large
sfc high. The center of the high wl sloly shift to the SE of the
FA later in the weekend and into early next week. This wl allow
south winds to return...along with a slow warming trend. Some
incrs in low lvl moisture/clouds expected late in the pd as a weak
upr impulse apchs fm the W. Kept the fcst dry for now as assocd
lift not that impressive on the latest model runs.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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