Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 151727 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED 3-5KFT CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BEST
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE AT KHRO/KBPK. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
DURING THE TAF WINDOW WITH A SWITCH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BOTH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND TTHIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION.

UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL TO REWORK POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL BE LEFT AS IT. ALL
UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  77  60  80 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         68  88  66  87 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  73  61  78 /  20  10  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  85  65  84 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  83  64  83 /  20  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     67  87  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      64  85  64  84 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  74  59  78 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        64  76  59  79 /  20  20  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     66  85  64  84 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  82  63  82 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         65  79  62  81 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      65  83  63  82 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





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