Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 252330 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TSRA WILL DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LINE OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 26/15Z...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. HAVE ADDED VCTS/PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A FEW CLOUDS BEGIN TO POP IN THE HEAT
OF THE DAY...GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO... HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...DO HAVE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HRRR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD FIRE AS FAR NORTH AS
LITTLE ROCK...BUT DO HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL SEE
RAIN. AS A RESULT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND HELP TO DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY. 12Z WRF
SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 12Z
ON FRIDAY. DO THINK THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...BUT BELIEVE THE WRF IS MUCH TOO QUICK. THEREFORE JUST KEPT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

AMPLE CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL NOT BE
OUTRAGEOUS...BUT DO EXPECT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY WITH DRY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE SHORT TERM ENDS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. INITIALLY...BEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT DO THINK SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
EXIST FURTHER SOUTH BY LATE MON INTO TUE WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT.
SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR TUE AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE FROM JUST BELOW
NORMAL...TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE...AND AR IN GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND MORE CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





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