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000
FXUS64 KLZK 281149
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

CONTINUED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. VISIBILITIES AT KHRO AND
KBPK...CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES...AS SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

OVERVIEW...
THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS WE GET TO THE TIME OF THE
YEAR WHERE THE COLD AND WARM AIR BATTLE IT OUT. WE WILL GO FROM
WINTER WEATHER...TO RAIN...TO THUNDERSTORMS...BACK TO WINTER ALL
WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTING INTERACTION WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST THROUGH
NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW PLACES COULD
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM
ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING INTERMITTENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER ALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT...SO ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT USUALLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLS OUT
NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DRAGS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...YOU
CAN KISS THE WARM WEATHER GOODBYE FOR A WHILE. MORE ON THAT FROM
OUR LONG TERM FORECASTER...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED TO START. BEGINNING TO SEE VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE STATE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE STATE BY 18Z.

THE BIG CHANGE WITH THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THIS WOULD INDICATE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS RESPECT...WHEN COMPARING MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
TO TODAY...THE GFS HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VERY COLD
AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  31  45  33 /  30  40  60  50
CAMDEN AR         44  38  52  41 /  20  20  60  80
HARRISON AR       30  29  41  28 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  35  47  37 /  30  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  34  47  38 /  20  30  60  70
MONTICELLO AR     45  38  54  42 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNT IDA AR      37  35  46  37 /  40  30  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  29  42  29 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        38  32  45  33 /  30  40  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     41  36  50  39 /  20  20  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  33  44  35 /  50  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         38  32  46  36 /  20  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      40  34  48  38 /  20  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65