Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 172355 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM NW ARKANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD
TO ALL TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN
VFR TERRITORY...BUT WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE FIRST 6-8HRS
OF THE PERIOD...WINDING UP IN IFR OR LIFR TERRITORY UP NORTH...AND
MAINLY IN IFR FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES. SOME IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR LEVELS MAY BE SEEN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONTINUED IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UP NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...-RA WILL GIVEWAY TO JUST
LINGERING -DZ JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT UP NORTH...AND MORE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THU FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE SEEN PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS A BIT
EARLIER THAN ADVERTISED. THIS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY HAVE LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE SEEN SOME SLEET MIXING AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
ONCE THE COLUMN MOISTENS UP A BIT...HAVE SEEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NWA AND OKLAHOMA CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF
ARKANSAS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND NO IMPACTS FROM THE BRIEF PERIODS OF
WINTER WEATHER HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL VERY LITTLE ACROSS NORTH
ARKANSAS...YET TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTER WEATHER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
THERMAL PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWING A JUST THICK ENOUGH
WARM LAYER AT THE SURFACE TO PREVENT FROZEN PRECIP...HOWEVER A FEW
HUNDRED FEET OF ELEVATION WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE. AS A
RESULT...WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS OVER 1-2K FEET.
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS SE OF ARKANSAS FROM THE WESTERN GULF...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE REGION LEAVING ARKANSAS ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH
OF ARKANSAS...BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD STILL RECEIVE
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.  COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
PUSHED OUT OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES
BECOME COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTER WEATHER. AGAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND
BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SHOWERS. LOOKING
ALOFT...A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A POWERFUL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH. WHILE FLURRIES
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED...THERE IS NO MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT WILL BRIEFLY TURN COOLER BRIEFLY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     39  34  42  35 /  30  70  20  10
CAMDEN AR         50  40  50  43 /  20  80  40  30
HARRISON AR       35  33  42  34 /  40  80  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  38  47  41 /  20  80  30  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  37  46  41 /  20  70  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     48  40  49  43 /  10  80  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      41  36  46  38 /  30  80  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  34  42  36 /  40  80  20  10
NEWPORT AR        38  35  42  36 /  30  70  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     43  38  47  41 /  20  80  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  36  47  40 /  40  80  20  20
SEARCY AR         39  34  44  35 /  30  70  20  10
STUTTGART AR      40  37  46  40 /  20  80  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





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