Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 231603 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Overall forecast on track. The stratus cloud deck is thinning and
dissipating quickly as the cooler and drier air filters into AR.
Only the southeast had any ceilings left. Temperatures were cool
with the 40s north to 50s central to south. Dewpoint temperatures
were in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Winds were elevated from the
northwest to north at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts seen.
Mostly sunny to sunny skies are forecast with highs this afternoon
in the 60s to some lower 70s. Late morning update will only fine
tune clouds in the southeast, winds and temperatures. Also this last
round of rain, heavy in spots especially over southern MO, did bring
a few rivers to action to minor flood stage. The expected rain
potential this coming mid-week and over the weekend, will keep
rivers up with additional flooding with flash flood potential. (59)
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 618 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/
Some MVFR/IFR CIGS will linger at the SERN sites for the next 2 to
3 hrs...but expect VFR conditions by later this morning like the
rest of the terminals. These VFR conditions will persist through
the rest of the TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 344 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
A cloudy and cool morning is ongoing across the CWA early this
Sun...with some lingering pockets of RA or DZ remaining. This precip
will continue to dissipate over the next few hrs as the center of
the upper level shortwave trough over the MO Bootheel moves east.
This will allow for the cloud cover also clear our by midday and
especially this afternoon. Below normal temps will be seen this
afternoon...with 60s and to low 70s expected for highs.
SFC high pressure will move over the state by Mon morning...with
winds becoming light and variable. These light winds combined with a
mostly clear sky will allow Mon morning temps to drop down into the
upper 30s to upper 40s for lows. The SFC high will shift east for
Mon afternoon...with SRLY flow returning by the end of the short
term. Warmer temps will be seen as a result on Mon...with highs in
the upper 60s to upper 70s. Dry weather will continue...though some
rain chances return in the long term period.
LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
Dry weather wl start off the PD on Tue, with breezy south winds
allowing for a continued warming trend across AR. By later Tue night
and Wed, a new storm system/CDFNT will be moving into the region,
bringing with it a new round of convection. Due to the progressive
nature of this system, excessive rainfall amts are not expected, but
a few strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out. Rain chances wl
quickly end from the west early Wed night with high pres building
back into the region by Thu.
The next storm system is progged to work out of the SWRN states and
into the Plains States by early next weekend. There are still timing
differences noted with the longer range data, so fcst confidence is
still limited. Since this system is still about a week away from
impacting the FA, we will continue to monitor trends this coming