Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 182002
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
202 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Upper level low pressure system continues to move east of the
state this afternoon. Some dry air is filtering into the region
helping to clear out sky conditions across portions of the
Arkansas River Valley between Little Rock and Fort Smith as well
as portions of north central Arkansas.

Expect clouds in many locations through the evening hours, with
additional low cloud formation and patchy fog by Sunday
morning. Upper ridging will briefly move over Arkansas Sunday
before an upper level wave and surface cold front will approach
from the west and slowly move over the state on Monday. Expect
rain chances to be confined to mainly western and central areas
for much of the day before finally spreading east late Monday into
early Tuesday.

There won`t be much support for severe weather with this system
and no cold air in its wake. We will have to monitor for some
locally heavy rainfall across a few western and southern
locations. This will be due in part to enhanced ridging just
ahead of the primary wave slowing down its eastward progress and
any associated precipitation that develops. Potential development
of a closed low along the Texas/Mexico border may slow things down
as well. Expect temperatures to be well above normal through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

 So here we are again. In short, no major changes. Still interested?
Read on!

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be moving across the area
Monday night, as a surface low passes to the south of the region.
Looking at the latest data, models have sped things up a bit, with
the upper low we`ve been talking about moving further south of the
region, more over the Gulf of Mexico. Should this pan out, the
entire system would have less of an effect, and rain chances would
probably need to be lowered.

Rain chances should end fairly quickly on Tuesday, as upper ridging
briefly builds in and surface high pressure attempts to nose in. At
any rate, south/southwest winds will return by Wednesday, which
would put the skids on any cool down we would have had otherwise.

By Friday, upper troughing digging into the southern plains will
push deepening surface low pressure and an attendant front into the
region. Tight pressure gradient between the surface low and high
pressure to the east will allow for elevated winds around Friday.
Rain chances will return to the forecast as well, but given the lack
of deep-layer moisture return ahead of the frontal boundary,
wouldn`t expect any more than isolated showers/storms at this
point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     48  73  57  72 /   0  10  20  30
Camden AR         53  78  61  73 /  10  10  30  70
Harrison AR       47  73  57  69 /   0  10  30  80
Hot Springs AR    50  75  60  69 /   0  10  40  80
Little Rock   AR  50  76  58  72 /   0  10  20  40
Monticello AR     53  78  59  75 /   0  10  10  20
Mount Ida AR      50  75  61  69 /  10  10  50  80
Mountain Home AR  47  73  56  72 /   0  10  20  70
Newport AR        47  72  55  73 /   0  10  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     51  76  58  74 /   0  10  20  20
Russellville AR   48  75  59  69 /   0  10  40  80
Searcy AR         48  75  56  72 /   0  10  20  30
Stuttgart AR      51  74  58  74 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...226 / Long Term...57



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