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000
FXUS64 KLZK 300934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
334 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
ARKANSAS UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS.

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...THEN SINK
BACK INTO THE STATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL WAFFLE AROUND UNTIL
ULTIMATELY MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL LEAD
TO SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE SOUTH WHERE A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH MONDAY AND MOST PLACES IN THE 60S TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY...THE SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO STALL BRIEFLY. SEVERAL WAVES WILL
MOVE UP IN THE MEAN FLOW AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS...
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO GIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME MOMENTUM. COLD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH RAIN LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE REMAINS TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH RESPECT TO EXACT DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PICTURE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT...AND WHAT THAT IS SHOWING IS A PUSH OF
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...MOST LIKELY JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  38  55  40 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         60  40  59  45 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       58  39  55  38 /   0  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  41  57  43 /   0  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  40  57  43 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     60  40  58  46 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      60  41  57  43 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  38  55  38 /   0  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        57  38  54  42 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  41  57  45 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  40  56  41 /   0  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         58  39  55  42 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  40  56  44 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57