Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 190233
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
933 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.UPDATE...
An isolated thunderstorm recently developed in north Arkansas
near Clinton but will dissipate soon. Clouds will diminish
overnight. Updated temperatures and cloud cover based on
observations and trends. The Heat Advisory will continue through
Wednesday for much of the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016
)

AVIATION...
High pressure will continue over the area through the period.
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwest will diminish through
sunset. Clouds will decrease overnight. VFR conditions will
continue through the period...except some morning fog will bring
IFR conditions to ADF.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Tuesday will be much like today with a slightly better chance of
diurnally driven showers popping up throughout the afternoon.
Southern Arkansas will see slightly better chances. A ridge of high
pressure will eventually slide east through the week with lesser
rain chances as we get beyond Tuesday. Heat will be the main
headline with temperatures bumping up a degree or two each day. A
few areas may not reach or sustain criteria on account of an
afternoon pop shower. However...with the warming trend in place went
ahead and expanded the heat advisory to Wednesday. May even be
approaching heat warning criteria in eastern Arkansas by mid week.

It`s important to mention isolated cells may produce locally
damaging downburst winds with brief heavy downpours over the next 2
afternoons. These storms will be brief with little to no movement.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

5h ridging continues for the remainder of the week squashing or
severely minimizing the chance for any rain through at least
Saturday. As we get into Sunday and early next week the ridge either
weakens a bit or transitions well to the west of the area allowing
for NW flow, weak troughing and falling heights. Either way, it
seems plausible that a slight chance of showers or storms will
return by then.

Temps will continue to run above normal with max HI`s ranging at or
above 105 through Sat. If todays 12z run of the ECMWF is correct,
then temps may return to near normal by early next week. This run
even hints at a cold front moving into the state Mon night.  Time
will tell.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Sharp-
Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

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