


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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271 FXUS64 KLZK 061943 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 243 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Latest data from local radars indicate widely scattered (~20 percent coverage) across the eastern half of the forecast area, moving eastward. This activity has formed in an area of very weakly sheared, weakly forced, moderately unstable atmosphere. This activity is expected to decrease with the loss of solar heating. Slightly more widespread activity is expected for Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest concentration of precipitation expected across northern sections of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A weak northwest flow pattern will be in place across the mid south during at the start of this forecast period, then will flatten as upper level heights increase. During the second half of the forecast period, a overall decrease in diurnally enhanced convection is expected, along with a slight warming trend. Would expect heat headlines during the second half of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR conditions will be noted over the majority of the period from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon across most terminals with a few minor exceptions which will be mentioned later in this discussion. Across all sites, VCTS has been included from Sunday afternoon thru Sunday evening as SHRA/TSRA coverage will become more widespread, but remain isolated overall. The only exception of degraded flight category mentioned above will occur from early Monday morning until an hour or two after sunrise at the sites of KHOT and KADF as VSBY is expected to lower to MVFR flight category. Surface winds across all sites will be variable for a large portion of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 72 92 72 91 / 30 60 20 70 Camden AR 74 96 73 93 / 10 40 10 60 Harrison AR 70 88 69 86 / 40 50 20 70 Hot Springs AR 74 95 73 93 / 10 50 20 60 Little Rock AR 75 94 75 93 / 10 40 20 60 Monticello AR 75 95 74 93 / 10 40 10 60 Mount Ida AR 72 94 72 90 / 10 40 20 70 Mountain Home AR 70 88 70 88 / 40 60 20 70 Newport AR 74 94 74 93 / 30 40 20 60 Pine Bluff AR 75 94 74 93 / 10 30 10 60 Russellville AR 73 93 73 90 / 20 50 20 60 Searcy AR 72 93 73 93 / 20 50 20 60 Stuttgart AR 76 94 75 93 / 20 30 20 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...74