Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 202045
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     39  51  45  60 /  40  50  40  80
CAMDEN AR         49  59  51  67 /  70  60  40  80
HARRISON AR       38  50  44  58 /  30  50  60  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    46  57  51  65 /  60  60  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  56  49  64 /  60  60  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     47  59  51  68 /  50  50  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      47  56  51  64 /  60  60  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  48  42  57 /  30  50  50  90
NEWPORT AR        39  52  47  61 /  40  50  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     46  58  51  66 /  60  60  40  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  54  48  61 /  50  60  60  90
SEARCY AR         41  54  48  62 /  50  50  40  80
STUTTGART AR      43  56  50  65 /  50  50  40  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...44




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