Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 121738 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18z Aviation cycle.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue for most terminals through the TAF
period. The exception may be across northern Arkansas on Friday
morning, particularly the BPK and HRO terminals, where some thin
fog development may bring brief MVFR conditions. Confidence is
lower for HRO, so have left mention out of TAFS at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 654 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017)
AVIATION...12/12 TAF CYCLE

Reduced VSBYS from fog wl be the main concern early this mrng.
Fcst sites affected wl mainly see MVFR conds for a few hrs, with
OCNL IFR/LIFR conds at KHRO and KBPK. Expect VFR conds thereafter
for the rest of the PD. Winds wl be light and variable. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 445 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

SFC high pressure was located acrs AR this morning, allowing for
mainly clear skies and light winds. Patchy fog has formed in some
areas, mainly in the vicinity of the larger area lakes. The leading
edge of low clouds has also be sloly working into NERN AR as well,
but do not expect this to affect much of our FA this mrng. Temps
ranged from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

The aforementioned surface high will linger over the region for much
of today, resulting in seasonal temps and light winds. The ridge is
expected to weaken and shift EWD tngt and Fri, with SFC winds
veering to the S/SE by Fri. This in turn will allow for some low lvl
moisture return Fri/Fri ngt, especially over the WRN half of AR.
Temps wl also moderate as a result, with highs back into the 80s
statewide by Fri aftn.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Upper ridge centered over the southeast conus will flatten out, and
this will allow a frontal boundary to move across the region late
Saturday night into the day Sunday.

The front will bring some chances of precipitation. But, with no
significant deep-layer moisture return ahead of the boundary,
rainfall will most likely be post-frontal and not amount to much.
Cooler airmass will move in behind the cold front, with temperatures
returning to more seasonal levels.

Surface high pressure will follow the front, with brief, weak
northwest flow aloft. Gradually, as the upper flow flattens out
toward the middle of the week, the surface high will shift eastward,
and winds will become more southerly.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...Brown
Short Term...44 / Long Term...57



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