Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 240943
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
443 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...FLOODING...AND A FEW TORNADOES LAST NIGHT TO OKLAHOMA HAS
CONTINUED ITS SLOW MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
BEGUN TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. WRF AND HRRR DISAGREE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT EIGHT HOURS OR SO. THE WRF SHOWS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AROUND MID DAY...BEFORE
REDEVELOPING AFTER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR WHICH SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE STATE...THESE TRAINING
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH RAIN RATES TOPPING OUT AT
1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.

ON TOP OF EVERYTHING...A BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
SUSTAINED SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TODAY AS WELL. MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT FANTASTIC...HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J PER KG. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SE AT THE SURFACE...HELICITY
VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.

BUT BY FAR THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE SEEN
BETWEEN 10 TO 14 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 4 TO 6 TIMES
NORMAL. COMBINE THIS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND SUNDAY WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. AGAIN...DO EXPECT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT DID GO AND ISSUE AND
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND GO THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS INDC A WEAK UPR RDG WL SET UP ALONG THE MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE RMNG IN PLACE ACRS THE MID
SOUTH...SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A
STRONGER UPR LVL STORM SYS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE LATE IN THE PD.
KEPT POPS IN CHC CAT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE AS CHGS IN TIMING/STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYS WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  67  78  65 /  70  80  50  80
CAMDEN AR         83  68  82  69 /  70  80  90  90
HARRISON AR       74  65  79  62 / 100  80  40  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    80  67  81  68 /  80  80  80  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  82  68  82  67 /  70  80  60  90
MONTICELLO AR     85  70  83  69 /  60  80  90  90
MOUNT IDA AR      76  68  78  67 /  80  80  80  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  65  80  64 /  80  80  30  80
NEWPORT AR        81  69  80  67 /  70  80  60  80
PINE BLUFF AR     83  68  81  69 /  70  80  80  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   79  65  82  66 /  80  80  60  80
SEARCY AR         81  66  80  68 /  70  80  50  80
STUTTGART AR      83  69  82  69 /  70  80  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44




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