Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 100537 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1137 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light and variable overnight...with SW winds
increasing for the daytime hrs on Sun. Winds should remain less
than 20 kts however. Expect winds to weaken after sunset...with
VFR conditions expected to dominate through this TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 250 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

As of early afternoon, surface analysis showed a weak frontal
boundary pushing through southern AR with gusty northwest winds in
its wake. Sustained winds have been between 10-20 mph with gusts
to 30 mph area wide, so just shy of Lake Wind criteria. That said, localized
hazardous conditions are still possible on area waterways through
the remainder of the afternoon. Modest moisture, characterized by
dew points in the upper teens to mid 20s, are keeping RH values
above 30%, thus mitigating higher- end fire danger, although
moderate to high fire danger does persist across the state.

Through this evening, the frontal boundary and associated surface
trough will continue pushing east with surface ridging building to
our southwest across TX. Winds will subside as the pressure
gradient relaxes with most areas seeing light and variable winds
this evening. Overnight, the surface high across TX will begin to migrate
south and another weak cold front and trough approach from the
north. Winds will become southwesterly before dawn Sunday ahead of
this front, so expecting warmer lows tonight into Sunday versus
what was observed this morning. Also expecting warmer highs Sunday
afternoon with southwesterly flow persisting. The front brushes
northern/eastern AR Sunday afternoon and evening before pushing
east. As the pressure gradient tightens, gusty winds are likely
again Sunday afternoon, especially across the MS River Delta.

By Monday, the pressure gradient tightens yet again as low
pressure passes to our north and another weak front approaches.
Continued southwesterly flow and warm air advection will drive
temperatures into the low 60s north and upper 60s south by Monday
afternoon with gusty winds expected. Unfortunately, a lack of
substantial moisture will keep this front dry as it crosses
through the day Monday. Moderate to high fire danger will persist
through this period and beyond owing to ongoing drought and a lack
of substantial precipitation.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday

An upper trough will be over the eastern U.S. to begin the long term
period with an upper ridge over the west. This pattern will continue
through the period. Northwest flow aloft will continue over
Arkansas.

Dry weather is expected through the long term period. High pressure
will be over Arkansas Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak cold front moves
through the area Wednesday night. High pressure settles back in for
the rest of the period. Several short waves will rotate through the
northwest flow. There will be a little more moisture to work with by
Saturday. Will include a chance of showers for the end of the
period. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the
long term period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



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