Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1137 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Weak shortwave aloft is producing a swath of cirrus across the
Midwest at this hour. Like last night, temperatures so far this
morning have been quite variable, modulated both by a southerly
wind and incoming cirrus. In general, readings are in the mid 30s
to mid 40s, but will continue to bounce around through sunrise.

High clouds will work across the region today, otherwise expect
another mild day with highs once again in the low 60s (give or
take a few degrees).

Low level moisture begins to increase across the southern Plains
tonight, nosing into eastern Kansas. Stratus will eventually be on
the increase for areas near the MO/KS state line, with patchy
drizzle not out of the question during the overnight hours. Lows
tonight will range from the upper 30s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid/upper 40s across extreme southeastern KS and western MO.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Stratus and patchy drizzle will continue to ooze into the region
from the southwest on Wednesday. Cannot rule out an isolated
shower or two, especially for areas northwest of I-44.
Temperatures will remain comfortable for late November with highs
a few degrees either side of 60.

The forecast for Thanksgiving and beyond remains wet. Model
agreement is decent through Friday. Onset of better quality
rainfall looks to be just a bit later on Thanksgiving Day, with
the southeast half of the area looking to have mainly dry
conditions into the early afternoon hours. Rain (heavy at times)
will engulf the entire area from late Thanksgiving afternoon
through Friday morning. Enough most unstable CAPE supports a
slight chance mention of thunder.

There are still notable differences in the evolution of this
rather convoluted upper level pattern this weekend. The biggest
issue is handling the upper low over the western CONUS, in
particular how the upper low evolves and lifts off to the
northeast. As a result, exact timing of waves of rain are
questionable, but regardless of solution the weather pattern
looks wet and chilly.

Given increasingly dormant vegetation, nearly saturated
conditions from rains late last week and multiple waves of rain
from Thanksgiving through the weekend, flooding is an increasing
concern. Current QPF suggests a solid 3-5 inches of rain across
the entire area. Precise location of the heavier amounts is still
a little difficult to pinpoint, but areas along/south of Highway
60 look to be most at risk at this point. As is typical, low water
crossings will be a concern, with the potential for larger stem
river flooding.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR flight conditions will prevail
through much of the evening at the taf sites. Persistent southerly
low level low will continue to advect moisture northward on
increasing low level jet. Stratus to advect/develop into Oklahoma
and southeast Kansas late tonight then spread eastward. Expect
flight conditions to deteriorate after 11Z tonight with ceilings
dropping into the MVFR category towards the end of the taf period with
the possibility of light showers or some patchy drizzle. There is
some guidance suggesting an earlier onset of the MVFR ceilings, so
confidence on the timing is medium. Although surface winds should
remain above 12 knots at KJLN and KSGF through the period, 45 knot
low level jet will result in low level wind shear through the
overnight hours.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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