Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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188
FXUS63 KSGF 171731
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1131 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Warm air advection was underway across the region this morning
with southerly winds aiding in bringing return moisture to the
area as well. The Ozarks will see the winds slowly shift from
southeast to southwest through the morning with wind speeds
increasing to 15 to 25 mph sustained by this afternoon and with
gusts to 30-35mph. The winds are expected to continue through
Friday night.

The moisture advection will continue through the day and into the
evening with some showers or drizzle expected through the day and
into the evening. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees despite low stratus overcast conditions and the
light rain or drizzle. This will be due to the strong warm air
advection.

A cold front will approach the region after midnight tonight
with the potential for some thunderstorms along or just ahead of
the front. There will be ample shear with the front but
instability will be on the low side. MUCAPE values from the NAM
peak at about 800 J/kg overnight as the front makes its way into
the area. There are some timing differences with the short range
modes with the speed of the front. Still, the front is expected to
move into the region during the overnight and early morning
hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 118 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

The front will be pushing quickly through the Ozarks Saturday
morning. It is expected to make its way to the I-44 corridor
around the 9 am time frame with showers and thunderstorms
impacting the area. Again, the limited instability and excessive
shear will make the potential for strong or severe storms a very
isolated possibility and as such have not included it in the
forecast.

Strong gusty surface winds with gusts possibly approaching 40mph
will be occurring ahead of and just behind the front. This may
result in the need for a Wind Advisory for this period, but will
take a wait and see approach for now.

Surface high pressure under northwesterly upper level flow will
bring a dry airmass into the area for Sunday with the region
remaining under its influence into the start of next week.

A dry cold front will move through the plains and the Ozarks
during the day Tuesday which will bring another cool and dry
surface high to the area. This airmass will remain in control of
the region`s weather through the end of next week. The next
potential for some rain may come next Saturday, but that`s a long
way out for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Surface low pressure is currently over the Plains early this
afternoon. Ahead of the low gusty south to southwesterly winds
will continue to occur across the area this afternoon into this
evening. MVFR ceilings are also occurring ahead of the low and
will persist through much of the afternoon hours.

A cold front will move through the region later tonight into early
Saturday morning. A few showers will be possible later tonight
into Saturday morning as the front and an upper level trough move
through the region. The better chances for rain will be farther to
the east.

Winds will switch to the northwest behind the front and will
increase and be gusty again late tonight into the day Saturday.
MVFR ceilings will also occur behind the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Wise



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