Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 290601
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Low level wind shear conditions will persist during the early
overnight hours across southern Missouri. A cold front will then
pass through the area later tonight and will terminate the low
level wind shear conditions while shifting surface winds to the
northwest. Winds will then become gusty out the the northwest on
Thursday. Meanwhile, confidence is high that a deck of MVFR
ceilings will settle into the region Thursday morning and will
persist for most of the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann





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