Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 172119
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
319 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

...A Very Active and Unsettled Weather Pattern Heading Our Way
Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Clouds are slowly clearing from west to east this afternoon with
the clearing line just moved through the Highway 65 corridor as of
3 pm. We will continue to see this trend through the early evening
hours. With recent rainfall and wet ground tonight as well as
light winds, we will have the potential for some patchy or areas
of fog. Guidance is indicating the best area to see that will be
south and east of I-44 across southern Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks. Visibilities may drop to less than one mile. Southern
winds across the western areas will keep the air mixed and less
fog potential. After the fog burns off or mixes out early Sunday
morning, the rest of the day looks nice! We will see mostly sunny
skies and windy condition. Southerly winds will gust up to 30 or
35 mph. High temperatures will be in the 60s. There may be locally
elevated fire weather condition across portions of eastern Kansas
due to gusty winds and slightly drier air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

You know the saying here in Missouri...If you don`t like the
weather, just wait five minutes. Well, we have different weather
for everyone over the next 4 or 5 days across the region. A large
upper level trough will develop and dig across the western U.S.
for early and middle of next week. The region will become well
established in a deep southwest flow in the mid and upper levels.
A surface low will develop in the Lee of the Rockies by Sunday
night into Monday. In response, southerly winds will bring in rich
Gulf Moisture northward with a deep fetch around the left side of
a large upper level ridge of high pressure in the southwest
Atlantic.

We will scattered off and on showers and isolated thunderstorms
develop across the region late Sunday through Monday night. Models
indicate some weak and limited instability will try to develop
Monday afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas and southward
along with ample shear values. We could see an isolated strong
storm possible with a couple elevated storms. The risk would be
some small hail.

Moisture will continue deepen with forecast PW values
(Precipitatable Water) approaching 1.5 inches in the atmosphere by
Tuesday. Looking at SPC climatology page for PW values for this
time of year, that is off the chart compared to climatology for
moisture values. This bascially means showers and convection will
be able to produce heavy rainfall. A cold front will slowly slide
southward on Tuesday and we expect a round of moderate to heavy
rainfall along and just behind that slowly sagging cold front. The
heaviest rainfall will occur Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. We are in drought conditions and we can take several
inches of rainfall with no problems. But, we will have to watch
trends and how this sets up. We have dorminate vegetation which
can`t take in rainfall during the winter. We expect a storm total
rainfall for the early to mid week system of 3 to 5 inches
possibly with isolated higher amounts.

Colder air begins to move in Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.
Moisture left over in the colder air will change over to a light
wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and some snow. We will see
another wave move up along the frontal boundary Wednesday moving
into the colder air over the region. We expect another round of a
wintry mix. The GFS and EURO have the same idea but just slightly
different in timing and amounts. The wintry weather threat will
end Thursday morning. We are not confident at this time on winter
weather types or amounts. But some accumulations and impacts look
very possible with temperatures in the 20s.

We will see a small break in between storm systems Thursday
afternoon and night before the next weather system comes at us
Friday into Saturday with more moderate to heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

The main aviation concerns for pilots will be low ceilings and
visibilities through early afternoon before conditions greatly
improved by late afternoon into this evening. Another concern will
be the gusty winds late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. IFR
to some LIFR ceilings will continue through 19z or 20z before MVFR
ceilings by mid afternoon and clearing skies after 21z from west
to east across the area. Skies will be mostly clear or fair
tonight and tomorrow. Winds will shift southwesterly to westerly
this afternoon then back to southerly tonight. Gusty southerly
winds return by late Sunday morning with some gusts up to 25
knots.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin


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