Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 062038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

An upper level trough is currently spreading east across the
southwestern CONUS. The trough will continue to spread east into
the Plains late tonight into Wednesday then across the area
Wednesday night. A cold front will sweep across the area late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A much colder air mass
will then overspread the area behind the front late this week.

Temperatures will be similar to those today as they warm into the
upper 30s to the lower 40s ahead of the front. Clouds will
increase ahead of the front through the day Wednesday.

A dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of this
system. Lift will start to overspread the area ahead of the trough
during the day Wednesday. However there is questions if this
initial lift will be strong enough to overcome the dry air. May
see precipitation start off as drizzle late Wednesday
morning/early afternoon due to the dry mid level air. Temperatures
will be above freezing during this time. If the dry air can be
overcome, a mix of rain/drizzle/snow will be possible, with
little or if any accumulations occurring through early afternoon.

As the front and trough approach from the west late Wednesday
afternoon/early evening, stronger lift will develop in a band
with the front across southeastern Kansas into western MO. The
lift will likely weaken as the front moves southeast across south
central Missouri. When this stronger lift develops, we may see a
brief period of sleet develop as the dry air is overcome but a
band of snow should develop fairly quickly. This band could
produce moderate to briefly heavy snow within it. The band will be
fairly progressive and not stay over any given location too long.
The better snowfall accumulation will occur within the band, and
may be only where snow accumulates Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. With lift weakening to the southeast the better
accumulation potential will be along and north of I-44 and west
of Hwy 65 where generally a dusting to near a inch of snow will
be possible. With the snow being banded in nature there could be a
tight gradient of snow from little to near a inch in a short
distances. Elsewhere, a trace to a dusting of snow will be
possible but many locations especially just see a few snow flakes
with no accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Surface high pressure will spread over the region Thursday into
Friday along with a very cold air mass. Highs on Thursday will
only warm into the upper 20s with highs on Friday warming into
the lower 30s. Lows Thursday morning and night will cool into the
teens both nights. The coldest night will be Thursday night into
Friday night with lows in the lower teens occurring and a few
spots dropping into the single digits possible for some of the
cooler spots around the area. Winds will be fairly light Thursday
and Friday which will keep wind chills in hand with values
generally dropping into the zero to ten above range each night.

The high pressure will spread off to the east on Saturday as low
pressure develops across the Plains. This will result in
southerly winds increasing out of the south across the area and
becoming gusty at times. Warmer conditions will spread into the
area with highs in the 40s occurring each afternoon Saturday into
early next week.

An upper level trough will spread across the area Saturday into
Sunday and could bring some light rain to the area. Temperatures
for the most part will be warm enough for all rain, but during the
overnight hours Saturday, and Sunday night if preciptiation can
linger that long, some light snow may be able to mix in with the
rain. Again mainly rain will occur and no snow accumulations are
currently expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Stratus has been clearing from northwest to southeast having
cleared out of JLN and should start to at SGF by 18-19z. May take
a couple more hours at BBG. High pressure will then continue to
build into the area for tonight and Wednesday. There will be an
increase in mid level moisture in advance of the next shortwave.




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