Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 051743 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1243 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

Impact of clouds on temperatures already under the control of low
level northeast flow around the SE US upper low to be the short
term forecast challenge today. Readings will be lowest out west as
this area will be slowest to break with the remainder of the
region warmer than yesterday.

As overnight lows tonight are forecast to drop below afternoon dew
points there will be some fog tonight from SGF eastward.
Visibilities will key in on the clearing of low clouds along with
amount and density of cirrus flowing off digging western system.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 0231 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

The arrival of the first rain in a month will be the forecast
highlight during this time period.

Blocking pattern to break down early in the period as persistent
upper low over the SE US fills and exits into the Atlantic while
SW US upper low slides southeastward into northern Mexico under
intensifying northern stream.

00z medium range models remain consistent in advecting a shortwave
across the northern US with an associated cold front to bring scattered
convection into the forecast area Thursday. ECMF a bit slower than
other models adding a bit of uncertainty on the speed of clearing
on Friday though most areas to be dry by the afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

Low clouds thinning from the east combined with mid to high level
clouds moving in from the west make this a complicated/low
confidence forecast for the period. Do believe that the three TAF
sites will see some improvement in ceilings from IFR to MVFR by
mid to late afternoon. Cloud cover will likely build down again
overnight tonight with IFR ceilings likely at all three sites.
There is a signal for LIFR conditions at BBG around sunrise
tomorrow. Ceilings should begin to slowly improve tomorrow


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Burchfield is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.