Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281651
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

The area of rain moving across eastern Oklahoma and Kansas is
expected to slowly move across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri into this afternoon.

The area of rain is not expected to move to the east very quickly
as bulk shear vectors convergence and streamlines indicate a near
northerly trend to the ongoing storms. In addition an MCV moving
across NE Oklahoma will act to enhance the ongoing area of
rainfall. Because of the potential for heavy rainfall a Flash
Flood Watch has also been issued for the area of concern through
tonight.

As a result, expect moderate to heavy rainfall to continue along
and west of I-49 into this afternoon. With the combination of rain
and cloud cover continuing into the afternoon, have dropped
temperatures 2-4 degrees across the indicated area as well with
little in the way of sunshine expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Water vapor imagery indicates short wave energy emerging out of
the Desert Southwest and into the Texas Panhandle region during
the predawn hours. Elevated convection has developed from central
Kansas into central and western Oklahoma owing to isentropic
upglide. Some of this activity may very well spread into western
Missouri early this morning. However, this activity will be
running into a more hostile environment with weaker CAPEs and
lower precipitable water values across western Missouri.

As that wave approaches the Ozarks later today, additional showers
and thunderstorms will develop due to the increasing lift and a
weak capping inversion. An old convergence zone/frontal boundary
stretching from west to east across central Missouri may provide
at least one area of focus for thunderstorm activity. Otherwise,
scattered to perhaps numerous coverage of convection is expected
throughout the area. An overall lack of deep layer shear will
preclude any kind of appreciable severe threat today. However,
there will be enough instability around for nickel to perhaps
quarter size hail from a few storms. Theta-e differentials will
also support a threat for wind gusts over 50 mph. Temperatures
today should not get quite as warm over western Missouri given
more in the way of cloud cover and precipitation. We are generally
looking at upper 70s to lower 80s over most areas.

Leftover activity will then remain possible into this evening. We
may then see a brief lull in coverage before thunderstorm
chances increase again later tonight due to a strengthening low
level jet/isentropic upglide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Yet another upper level short wave trough will then slowly move
east across the central/southern Plains on Friday. Increasing
lift ahead of this wave will once again initiate scattered to
numerous thunderstorms across the Ozarks from Friday into Friday
evening. Meanwhile, an approaching wave from the northwest will
then push a cold front into the Ozarks from late Friday night into
Saturday. This will provide yet another focus for showers and
thunderstorms.

Confidence has actually decreased as to when precipitation will
then come to an end with this passing front. Models bring a
surface wave up this feature during the day on Saturday. This
would certainly slow its progress. Global models then hang the 850
mb front up across far south-central Missouri into Sunday. We have
therefore held onto at least chance PoPs into Sunday across south-
central Missouri.

With multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected, hydro concerns are
certainly there. We considered the issuance of a Flash Flood
Watch with this forecast package. After collaboration with
surrounding offices, we decided to hold off on a watch as the
threat for widespread heavier rainfall will not come until later
Friday into Friday night (late 3rd/4th period). That is not to say
that there will not be localized areas of heavy rainfall today or
tonight.

Models then continue to struggle with the fate of that upper level
energy as it moves southeast across the Mid/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Both the GFS and now the ECMWF close off that low to our
south from Monday into Tuesday. It then becomes cut off from the
main flow. The Canadian model still keeps it progressive and moves
it out into the Ohio Valley by later Monday. If the GFS/ECMWF are
correct, that may keep the door open for isolated or scattered
showers and thunderstorms early next week. Regardless, early next
week looks cooler behind that cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Timing of thunderstorms will be the biggest challenge early on
during this TAF period, with multiple clusters of storms over the
Central/Southern Plains moving toward the area. Think that
convection should begin to affect the terminals late this morning
into the afternoon hours, with the greatest coverage during peak
heating this afternoon, as additional clusters of storms develop
over the region. Brief periods of IFR, along with gusty winds, may
be possible with the stronger TSRA, but overall cig/vis should
only drop to MVFR around convection.

Thunderstorms will likely decrease in coverage this evening, with
LLWS then developing late tonight as the low level jet increases
across the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-
     101.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell






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