Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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649
FXUS63 KSGF 200025
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Showers and thunderstorms affected a good portion of the area this
morning. Some lingering showers were occurring over the western
CWA early this afternoon. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s
across the CWA, however the cold front was situated one row of
counties to the west with temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
Dewpoints have risen into the upper 50s to low 60s and PW values
were around 1.40 in.

The forecast will be quite complex during the 7 day period, with a
heavy rain and flooding risk at the beginning and end of the
period and an ice risk in the middle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

For tonight and Tuesday, we maintain the instability ahead of the
front and should see several rounds of showers with embedded
thunderstorms. With fairly high PW values, our rain rates will be
high. We are currently in a moderate to severe drought, so initial
rainfall amounts should soak into the ground without much of an
issue. The heavy rain is expected to intensify during the day on
Tuesday and this may cause some localized areas to flood,
especially in low lying areas. For this reason, we are going with
a flood watch starting 12z Tue and continuing through Tuesday
night. The front should be on the move during the day on Tuesday
with sharply colder temperatures moving in behind the front. The
big question will be how much precipitation will occur in the
colder air behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The models are differing in that aspect with the GFS showing
almost no precipitation within the sub-freezing air and NAM
showing still quite a bit. We have gone with a blend of the models
which will bring in some freezing rain on the back edge of the
main area of rainfall. Another issue as that the freezing line is
expected to meander back to the north during the day Wednesday and
then back south on Wednesday night so initial ice amounts may very
well melt by the time the second round begins. Our amounts will be
from 0.10 to 0.25" for now, just below warning criteria and that
is totaling the entire forecast of ice.

There may be a brief lull in the precipitation on Thursday before
the next wave of rainfall begins to move in on Thursday night.
Current tracks for the next round of precipitation from Thursday
night through the weekend will place the main concern over south
central Missouri where additional heavy rainfall will be possible.
Depending on how much rain we get with the first round, this
second round may be the bigger flood concern.

For now, we are forecasting 7 day rain totals across the CWA from
2" to 6.5" of rainfall. Obviously, this can change with time,
especially in the later periods if there is a slight shift in the
axis of highest moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Showers and a few thunderstorms will move
through the area ahead of an approaching front. MVFR/IFR
visibility will occur with heavier showers. Gusty winds and low
level wind shear will continue to be included in all tafs. The
front will stall/meander for a time and will need to watch trends
for an eventual wind shift with IFR post frontal ceilings.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from 6 AM CST Tuesday through late Tuesday night for
     MOZ079>082-088>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA



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