Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181950

250 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure is currently pushing east
across the southwestern U.S. This is leaving the region in an
upper level northwest flow pattern. A weak disturbance is expected
to move through this northwest flow tonight and trigger storms
across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri late this
evening. This activity will then push to the southeast overnight
into Tuesday morning, mainly remaining north and east of the area
but may clip portions of central Missouri. Theta-E differences and
MUCAPE values over 2000 J/kg could support a few strong storms
wind gust in excess of 50 mph with any line segments that can

An outflow boundary from this activity will develop and push south
through the rest of the area tonight and Tuesday morning.
Additional storms will be possible along this boundary with the
best chances remaining along and north of the Highway 54 corridor,
with storms weakening as the approach Highway 60. This convection
should dissipate by the late morning hours Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The upper level high will move east and over the region by
Thursday. Storms are expected to develop across northern Missouri
again Tuesday night and push to the southeast again, but with the
upper level high pushing farther to the east this activity will
mainly occur north and east of the area, maybe just clipping the
far eastern Ozarks.

The upper level high will then remain over the region Thursday
into the weekend, ushering in a very warm air mass. Highs will
top up in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon Thursday into
this weekend, with heat index values generally in the 100 to 105
degree range. Afternoon mixing may help heat index values from
getting too out of hand but, never the less, hot conditions can
still be expected this week and weekend. Dry conditions are
also expected Wednesday into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Weak sfc
high pressure over the area today will shift east with a south and
then sw sfc wind becoming established as a warm front lifts
through the area. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along and north of the front, but high res models weaken the
storms by the time they make it as far south as the taf sites.
Will continue with a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period,
but better chances for storms are expected to the north and




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