Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270515
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1115 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

...06Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Have gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for southern MO
through 9 AM tomorrow. An area of remnant stratus and fog from
earlier today quickly expanded once the sun began to set, with
visibilities in many areas falling to between 1/2 and 1/4 mile.
Additional fog is likely across south central MO, though right now
it is unclear whether that will be an expansion of the current
area of stratus/fog, or new development.

Visibilities will likely vary considerably tonight, especially
within the more complex terrain of the Ozark Plateau. Visibility
along ridge tops may be especially low, as stratus build down will
be more likely along the higher terrain. These rapid visibility
changes will likely result in an additional hazard for drivers
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Low clouds and fog were slow to burn off today but all areas
except portions of our south central Missouri counties have
cleared with temperatures rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by
mid afternoon.

Should see some patchy dense fog develop over our southeast
counties tonight where temp/dewpt spreads remain low. Otherwise it
should be a relatively mild night with cloud cover and wind speeds
increasing from west to east with the approach of the west coast
storm system. Evening shift will need to watch fog trends
over south central MO as this area may approach advisory criteria
later tonight.

Precipitation is still expected to develop mainly during the
afternoon as the initial mid level shortwave trough moves across
the central Plains. Precipitation during the afternoon should be
mainly over western MO/southeast KS with accumulations being
relatively light, 0.10 inch or less on average.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

A stronger shortwave trough tracks across the desert southwest
Sunday night before spreading northeast across OK/MO on Monday.
QPF output from NAM and GFS show higher amounts over our southeast
counties with better tap into low level moisture, so have bumped
up rainfall amounts to around 0.75 inch over our
Oregon/Shannon/Howell counties. Otherwise will continue chances
for thunderstorms through Monday night with some weak instability
over the region. Severe storm threat still looks pretty low.

Temperatures will remain rather mild with highs topping out in the
upper 50s to lower 60s through Tuesday. The main cold front
associated with this system should push east of the area by
Tuesday night and drop temps into the 30s Wednesday morning.

The rest of the week looks dry and with near to slightly below
normal temperatures and another shot of cooler air behind another
cold front on Thursday night or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Fog and stratus will result in continued IFR and LIFR conditions
across southern and south central Missouri tonight. Conditions are
still expected to improve late tonight at SGF, though IFR stratus
will remain, and confidence in timing is low. BBG is expected to
remain LIFR until morning. Stratus and fog are expected to remain
east of JLN at this time.

South to southeast winds will increase tonight and especially
during the day on Sunday across the region, with a few gusts up to
near 30 KT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
after noon ahead of a storm system approaching the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>092-095>098-103>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Boxell



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