Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1139 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Temperatures across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas early this
morning remained at or just the below the freezing mark with the
exception of south central MO along the MO/AR border.
Temperatures have actually risen a degree or two in many areas
since 10 pm. Conference calls with MODOT (SW MO Region) indicate
that some brides/overpasses are slick if without treatment. Some
secondary roads have slick spots as well over higher elevation
terrain in the Ozarks where temperatures are a a degree or two

Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain continued. The freezing
drizzle/rain is expected to continue through sunrise today before
temperatures slowly warm above freezing and the light
precipitation tapers off. As a result will continue the winter
weather advisory through this morning. Looks like precip will
taper off this morning from southwest to northeast.

Temperatures by lunch time should warm into the middle to upper
30s which will be a good thing as the next round of rain begins to
move into the region this afternoon. The temperatures will
continue to warm into the 40s this afternoon as rain spreads
across the area. There may be a few rumbles of thunder across
portions of south central Missouri later this afternoon and
tonight as this next system moves through the area. The NAM has
from 250-700j/kg of MUCAPE south of I-44. This would bring the
potential for some thunder and have added it to the forecast.

The area of rain will slowly shift east tonight but cloud cover
will remain. This along with southerly winds will help to keep
temperatures in the 40s through the overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

The next in our parade of storm systems will begin to move into
the Ozarks from the south Friday afternoon and bring an additional
1 to 3 inches of rainfall to the region. Areas south of I-44 will
likely see the most rain, in excess of 2 inches, with locations
north of I-44 seeing up to an inch. Temperatures with this system
will remain well above freezing so all this precipitation will
fall in liquid form. The will also be some instability to work
with and scattered thunderstorms area anticipated. Will need to
watch Saturday afternoon/evening with at least some severe storm
potential as a strong shortwave tracks from the central Plains
into the Midwest (northwest of the area), and a sfc low and
trailing front pass quickly through. Instability may be marginal
this far north, but still enough to produce stronger storms given
the strong/favorable vertical shear. Best chances appear to be in
the eastern cwfa. Will watch trends.

With the rain the region has received to this point and what is
expected Friday into Saturday, would expect we will need a flood
watch at some point but will hold off on that for this forecast

High pressure and the sun will finally return to the area Sunday
and remain through Tuesday afternoon. This will be welcome after
nearly a week of overcast skies and precipitation.

We will have to enjoy the sun as another storm system moves
into the area Tuesday night with the potential of addition
precipitation off and on through the end of next week, depending
on the model.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

IFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon through
Friday morning. Showers have developed across central Kansas into
central Oklahoma late this morning. These showers will continue to
spread from west to east across the area later this afternoon into
this evening. IFR ceilings and some light fog will occur through
the overnight hours.




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