Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 070550
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2013
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013
We inserted light snow/flurries into the forecast for early this
evening across south-central Missouri. The 5 PM Branson
observation carried light snow with a visibility below two miles
beneath radar returns only in the 10 to 20 dBZ range. This is
common with very dry snow. A few locations across south-central
Missouri may see another tenth of an inch or two of snow before it
finally ends later this evening.
We have also increased cloud cover for the remainder of this
evening as this deck of clouds will be stubborn to clear. Dry air
advection will eventually erode this deck from the northwest to
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 344 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013
Our first winter storm of the season is winding down, though the
impacts will continue well into this weekend. As of the mid
afternoon hours, MODOT continues to indicate that most roads
across the region are either partly or completely snow covered.
So, while the snow has ended, travel will continue to be
treacherous well into tonight.
On top of this, the brunt of the arctic airmass will spill into
the region tonight. A strong area of high pressure will build
southeastward into the region and with time, skies will clear
tonight. Winds will not completely go calm tonight, and they
rarely do with arctic airmasses. Looking at low temperatures last
night across the central and northern Plains, single digits above
and below zero were observed. Some (very minor) moderation is
expected, however where skies can clear coincident with this new
snow pack, temperatures will likely fall to around zero to a few
degrees below zero. Looking at past similar situations, lows in
the -3 to 3 above range look good for the area. With northerly
winds in the 5 to 10 mph range, wind chill values will range from
5 to 15 below zero area wide. A wind chill advisory is in effect
to account for this.
Not much recovery expected on Saturday. Mid/high clouds will
gradually increase and we will remain under full control of the
arctic high pressure. Highs will struggle to warm into the upper
teens and lower 20s.
Heading into Saturday night and Sunday, models continue to
indicate a weak wave moving northeastward through the Midwest.
There will be decent isentropic upglide between midnight and noon
Sunday, though we will definitely be fighting some dry air with
this system. As a result, have held off onset of precipitation
until after midnight. Another complicating factor with this system
will be a lack of cloud ice. The suite of short term models
quickly shunt cloud ice to our north and east, and this will bring
a risk of freezing drizzle to the area. Could not rule out some
refreeze potential given the depth of this cold airmass either.
Bottom line, amounts look very light and we will continue to keep
an eye on trends.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013
Another Arctic high will move over the region early next week which
will keep the region very cold into the end of next week. Lows on
Tuesday morning are expected to be very cold with most areas in
the single digits. For locations along I-44, on the top of the
plateau, lows at or below 3 degrees are expected with some
locations likely falling to the zero degree mark. The high
pressure will still be northwest of the region by sunrise Tuesday
and as a result, winds are expected to be northerly at 5-10kts
across the area. This combination of lows in the single digits and
breezy winds would allow some locations along the plateau to see
wind chills fall to near 10 below zero again.
A very slow warming trend is expected towards the end of next week
with temperatures forecast to climb above the freezing mark for the
first time on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to climb into
the lower to middle 30s.
Models are bringing another storm system to the Ozarks region late
next week. Precipitation currently would be liquid Friday and into
the early part of next weekend, but another round of cold weather is
being shown. While this system is too far out to determine if wintry
weather will affect the area, the system bears watching.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013
Mid level clouds will clear out of Branson by 09 UTC. VFR
conditions are expected at all three southern Missouri aerodromes
through Saturday. Ceilings will then lower from late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening as a weak upper level disturbance
approaches from the west. A few snow showers may develop Saturday
evening. We have elected to cover this with a PROB30 group.
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Saturday FOR MOZ055>058-
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Saturday FOR KSZ073-097-101.