Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 161736
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014
A stacked low pressure system continued to make its way toward
the Great Lakes region this morning. Accompanying deep cyclonic
pattern was resulting in a an expansive stratus field from the
Ozarks north into the Canadian provinces. Some patchy drizzle or
sprinkles noted across the region this morning and this will
continue mainly across central Missouri through the early morning
hours. Clouds will linger most of the day with gradual clearing
from the west this afternoon into tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014
An active progressive pattern over the next several days will
bring the potential of a couple of chances of light winter
Seasonably cool and tranquil can be expected during the day Wednesday
as surface high pressure builds across the area in the wake of the
exiting low pressure system. However the break in active weather
will be brief as a shortwave trough tracks from southern California
into the southern Plains by Wednesday night.
Theta-e advection within the 850-700 mb layer and isentropic ascent
will strengthen Wednesday evening as moisture advects northward
resulting in an increasing coverage of precipitation. Lift could
be further enhanced by a ribbon of mid level frontogenetical forcing.
Expect light precipitation to develop as early as late Wednesday afternoon
across far southwestern Missouri then overspread the area Wednesday
Top down winter precipitation method and progged thermal profiles
suggest that precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow across
far southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas and
primarily all snow across the remainder of the area generally
north of Highway 60 Wednesday night. Surface temperatures will
settle to near the freezing mark across much the area.
Snow accumulations Wednesday night will be light with amounts
ranging from a trace up to an inch expected at this time. While
accumulations will be light there is the potential for travel
impacts Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute.
Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday while we lose cloud
ice. The result will be a transition Thursday to patchy light rain
and drizzle. Will have to monitor for the potential of patchy
freezing drizzle Thursday night.
The next more pronounced shortwave trough will track across Texas
and the lower Mississippi River Valley Friday and Saturday with a
developing surface low along the Gulf coast. The precipitation
shield associated with this system will brush southern Missouri
Friday and Friday night. Precipitation during the day Friday will
be primarily rain with some potential of a rain/snow mix. The best
chance of precipitation will be across south central Missouri
Friday night. Expect precipitation to transition to primarily snow
Friday night with the best potential of minor accumulations across
south central Missouri or southeast of a Branson to Salem line.
Overall confidence has increased that at least portions of the
Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas we will have a
couple of minor winter precipitation events Wednesday night again
later Friday. It is important to note that while accumulations if
any will be light there is the potential that travel could be
impacted Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute and
again Friday night. The placement and accumulations of snow will
be refined with time as new model data is received. Please
monitor the latest forecast.
A seasonably cold and drier weather pattern will return this
weekend as the region comes under the influence of a more
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS:
Main forecast concern is on cloud trends this afternoon and evening
and corresponding ceilings heights.
12Z KSGF sounding shows low level moisture in the 900mb-850mb layer.
Examinations of short term model trends indicates this layer to
slowly dry through the afternoon from west to east as surface high
pressure shifts eastward from Kansas. Visible satellite imagery
showing back edge of clouds into eastern Kansas. MVFR ceilings will
slowly rise at the taf sites before scattering out later this
afternoon. Of note is the 15Z RAP BUKFIT soundings are slower in
pushing this moisture out this afternoon. Based on latest
satellite trends feel RAP may be to slow. As high slides across
the terminals tonight into early Wednesday expect VFR conditions
with light winds. Mid level moisture begins to increase ahead of
the next wave between 15Z-18Z but any ceilings that develop will
be in the VFR range.