Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 240815
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS
THIS MORNING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
MOVING INTO WESTERN CO...WILL PUNCH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER
TODAY. A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN KS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY...AND IS FORECAST TO INITIATE
STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER NE OK. THE 00Z NAM HAS DELAYED
STORM INITIATION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...SUGGESTING THAT
STORMS MAY WAIT TILL AROUND 00Z TO FIRE. FOR THIS REASON...POPS
HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME BUT HAVE BEEN LEFT
LARGELY IN TACT FOR THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
DISCRETE STORMS DUE TO SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY...SUPERCELLS ARE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
THREATS. WITH TIME SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS IS LIKELY
BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ROUND TWO WILL GET GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A POLAR FRONT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE EVENT
WILL BE DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST OK. FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT...A MORE MULTICELLULAR BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
NEARLY PARALLEL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ANAFRONTAL ORIENTATION OF THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO THE SOUTHEAST SURGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE POST-FRONTAL AS THEY GET
UNDERCUT. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FROM
WHAT IT COULD BE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
MORE OF A WIND THREAT WITH TIME. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW.

THE WORK WEEK WILL CLOSE ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE THAN IT
STARTED...WITH SOME FREEZE POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING IN SOME
SPOTS. RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL OCCUR IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
CARVING OUT JUST TO OUR EAST. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE STATE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  50  75  42 /  10  10  60  70
FSM   78  53  80  49 /  10  50  50  80
MLC   79  56  79  45 /  20  30  30  80
BVO   80  45  72  40 /  10  10  60  50
FYV   73  47  75  42 /  20  40  50  80
BYV   74  47  74  42 /  20  50  50  90
MKO   76  51  79  44 /  20  20  60  80
MIO   73  45  73  40 /  20  10  70  60
F10   78  54  79  43 /  10  10  60  80
HHW   80  60  80  49 /  10  30  20  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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