Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 170404
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1104 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 06Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
No major changes made to the 00Z forecast, with one exception.
High pressure will remain in control over the region and VFR
conditions will be predominant. The one exception is the
possibility of some fog in the lower Ark river valley near KFSM
during the overnight and into early Tuesday morning. Both the NAM
and HRRR hint at the possibility, and recent obs have mentioned
some patchy fog nearby. Will include a tempo IFR vsby at that
location.

The surface ridge slides east just enough to allow for some
increase in south winds on Tuesday, though it appears that winds
should stay blo 15 kts.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 909 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Surface high across the region will lead to another chilly night
with light winds and largely clear skies. Patchy frost still
appears possible, especially in the favored cool spots in
northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Winds have returned to
a light southerly direction in parts of northeast Oklahoma that
typically get locally cooler so think that frost is less likely
tonight than it was earlier this morning. All of this agrees with
the previous forecast, and as such, no update is planned this
evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 551 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 00Z TAF forecast can be found below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Surface high pressure will maintain VFR conditions thru the TAF
period. The ridge axis is expected to shift far enough east by
Tuesday afternoon to bring slightly stronger south winds to NE OK,
where gusts could top 15 kts.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure was centered across Eastern Oklahoma to
Southern Illinois this afternoon. Underneath the high...clear
skies and light/variable winds were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

Overnight tonight...light winds and mostly clear skies are
expected to continue as the surface high begins to shift eastward.
These conditions will again aid in temps getting down into the mid
30s to mid 40s for much of the CWA. The cold spots tonight look
to be over parts of Northwest Arkansas as they remain on the
westward side of the high pressure center. In response...some
valley locations could see temperatures dip down close to the
freezing mark along with patchy areas of frost. Will hold off on
any frost/freeze headlines for now due to the isolated/patchy
possible coverage.

Southerly winds return to the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday and
become breezy Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge develops
over the Central U.S. At the same time...a slow warming trend is
forecast to begin Tuesday and continue through the week with
possible highs back in the upper 70s/low 80s by Friday.

In the extended forecast...latest model solutions continue to
agree with a wave moving onto the West Coast Thursday night/Friday
and into the Plains over the weekend. Most recent model runs have
begun to indicate the potential for an upper level impulse to
eject into the Southern Plains Friday/Saturday ahead of the main
approaching wave. For now will hold off on introducing pops to the
forecast for Friday to see if indications continue to show up in
later model runs...and will continue with small pops Saturday
ahead of the approaching waves associated cold front. Also ahead
of the approaching cold front...gusty southerly winds are forecast
Friday and Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms become likely Saturday night for the CWA
as model consensus continues to forecast the cold front across the
region Saturday night into Sunday. As of this forecast...with the
timing of the boundary to be during the overnight/morning
hours...overall severe potentials could be limited. Thunderstorm
potentials look to weaken behind the front and could exit the CWA
Sunday morning with perhaps some rain chances continuing into
Sunday...kind of how the front/precip developed this past weekend.
Will continue to monitor latest data as this forecast will likely
change and will be updated through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   43  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   41  73  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   38  74  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   34  69  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   40  71  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   43  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  71  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
F10   42  72  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   42  73  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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