Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 261150
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
TEMPORARY IFR STRATUS CIG SITES KTUL KRVS UNTIL 15Z.
MVFR CLOUD ARKANSAS TAF SITES KXNA KFYV KROG MIXING OUT
15Z-18Z. VFR ALL SITES 18Z-00Z. THUNDERSTORM RISK INCREASES
THIS EVENING MAINLY IN 03Z-09Z TIME PERIOD. PROB30 USED DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE AT SPECIFIC TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ENDING. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG THE OK/KS STATE LINE AND ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS NUMEROUS
SECONDARY ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...INCLUDING
ONGOING MODERATE TO MAJOR MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS IN STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL...HOWEVER OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FURTHER AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A STRONGER UPPER WAVE OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. AGAIN...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND FRONT WITH ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A WELCOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
FSM   83  66  84  67 /  20  40  40  20
MLC   80  66  83  67 /  20  40  40  30
BVO   82  63  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
FYV   79  61  80  64 /  20  40  40  20
BYV   79  63  80  65 /  20  40  40  20
MKO   81  64  82  66 /  20  40  40  30
MIO   80  61  81  64 /  20  40  40  20
F10   80  65  83  66 /  20  40  40  30
HHW   82  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21




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