Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 230156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
856 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Potential for some patchy drizzle will exist over the
next few hours across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Otherwise...the cloud cover is expected
to slowly exit much of the area overnight from the west
to the east. Current forecast is on track with only some
minor adjustments.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 620 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/


The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

MVFR conditions across SE OK into NW AR will gradually trend
toward VFR thru the evening as high pressure and drier air work
their way into the region from the north. Cigs are already VFR
across NE OK. Eventually all cigs should clear out by morning.
There is a chance for some light MVFR fog at FYV around daybreak,
otherwise it should be a picture perfect day to fly a plane across
E OK and NW AR on Sunday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

Sfc high settles over the region tonight through Sunday with skies
eventually clearing and warmer temps expected by Sun afternoon.
Lows Sunday night will drop into the mid 30s for the colder valley
locations and patchy frost is not out of the question.

Breezy and warmer conditions prevail on Monday with the next cold
front pushing into NE OK by Tuesday afternoon. Sfc wave is
forecast to develop over the TX Panhandle by Tues evening and
track along the frontal zone into SE OK by sunrise Wednesday.
Storm development by late Tues evening is likely to be limited by
marginal sfc moisture return and sizeable inhibition. While an
isolated storm is possible Tues evening, more widespread storm
coverage is likely along the frontal zone and in advance of the
sfc wave with widespread convection Tues night into early Wed
morning. Severe weather and locally heavy rain potential will
exist with any storms from late Tues afternoon through Tues night.

The cold front will clear the forecast area early Wednesday and
thereafter uncertainty increases markedly regarding the evolution
of this frontal boundary. Sharp swings in the ECMWF operational
solution along with wide spreads noted in its corresponding
ensemble data suggest the late week forecast is far from being
determined. That said, the pattern aloft will become increasing
active across the Southern Plains from late week through next
weekend. While the warm sector placement remains uncertain, the
idea of significant severe weather remains plausible.




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