Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION
IN ANY TAF.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG
STALLED FRONT. ALTHOUGH MCS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING...ANY
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OR POTENTIAL MCV THAT IS GENERATED WILL SUPPORT
LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION
..LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MAY KEEP HIGH TEMPS COOLER
THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST GIVEN THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF
MCS. A FEW MINOR CHANGES WITH TEMPS/POPS MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. UPPER
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MID/LATE WEEK WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/DRY
CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH VALUES IN THE
100-104 DEG RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER RIDGE
HOPEFULLY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN/SHIFT EAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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