000
FXUS64 KTSA 201144
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS RISING TO BETTER THAN 3 THOUSAND FEET BY
18Z. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING 17Z-23Z AND BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER 23Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL
REMAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN EVENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HELPING TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. THESE STORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH SOME BY LATE EVENING AND
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AROUND THIS SAME TIME. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME PLACES TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING
BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
THEN REMAINS IN THE VICINITY FOR A COUPLE DAYS. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE LIKELY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  66  79  56 /  50  90  60  20
FSM   88  68  78  59 /  20  80  80  40
MLC   85  68  77  56 /  20  90  60  30
BVO   83  63  79  53 /  40  70  40  20
FYV   81  64  75  54 /  40  90  70  40
BYV   82  65  75  55 /  40  80  70  50
MKO   84  67  77  56 /  40  90  70  30
MIO   81  65  77  53 /  40  90  60  30
F10   84  67  78  56 /  30  90  60  20
HHW   87  69  79  59 /  20  60  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...21