Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 242038
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
KANSAS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE STORMS...THEN
FORMING INTO A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. ALL FORMS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO EARLY ON WITH THE DISCRETE STORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA AND A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND UNDERCUTS
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LESSEN...HOWEVER
THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD
BECOME A CONCERN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY MORNING...ENDING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

A PERIOD OF COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  75  41  58 /  10  60  70  10
FSM   52  79  49  61 /  60  60  80  20
MLC   56  79  44  59 /  30  40  80  10
BVO   44  72  40  57 /  10  60  60   0
FYV   46  75  41  54 /  60  60  80  20
BYV   46  74  41  54 /  60  60  90  20
MKO   51  79  42  57 /  20  60  80  10
MIO   45  73  39  55 /  20  60  70  10
F10   54  78  42  58 /  10  60  80  10
HHW   59  78  47  61 /  40  30  70  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....16




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