Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





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