Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 282332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VIS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING MONDAY. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND A FEW TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS GOING TO FEEL A LOT
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKENDS VALUES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY TO
BE IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND ALONG IT...ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...VERY NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH BOTH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/WIND. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER MULTI DAY RAIN FREE PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




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