Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MUCH LIKE PAST FEW DAYS...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY
IMPACTING A FEW LOCATIONS...NAMELY BVO/RVS/FYV/XNA. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR BY 14Z...WITH MID CLOUD DECK EXPANDING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
VIS MAY RETURN IN SAME AREAS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO LA LATER
TODAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST ENOUGH ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER IN WRN AR AND FAR ERN OK. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A 10% CHANCE HOWEVER. RIDGING OVER
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
THRU TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...FORCING A BOUNDARY DOWN
TO NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPSTREAM KICKER LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ATTM WILL
DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AS THE LEAD SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE
WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU THE REGION BY THURSDAY
EVENING...LEAVING FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14







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