Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
-SHRA/-TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TO
THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
AND AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED. THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE
WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING OF FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK
SO TEMPERATURES ON SPECIFIC DAYS ARE TOUGH TO PREDICT. THE GENERAL
THEME WILL BE FOR A COOLDOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARMUP TO NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF EACH SUCCEEDING FRONT.

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY BUT
OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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