Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181103
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
603 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Patchy fog ongoing across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
will lead to tempo IFR conditions at all terminals for the next
couple of hours. All fog should lift by 15-16Z, with some MVFR
ceilings remaining for a couple of hours thereafter. VFR
conditions should prevail from the afternoon on. There is a
nonzero chance that MVFR ceilings could return toward the end of
the valid TAF period, especially to the eastern Oklahoma
terminals, but think the chance is low enough to not mention at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of fog early this morning will lift by mid to late morning
allowing for at least partial sunshine by this afternoon. This
should allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s
today. The warm weather will continue Wednesday with increasing
southerly winds ahead of the next frontal boundary that will move
into the area late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase around
midnight Wednesday night with the approach of this cold front. A
few strong to severe storms will be possible late Wednesday night
into Thursday, but widespread severe weather is not likely.

The frontal boundary will stall near the Red River Thursday night
and Friday as a potent upper system dives southeast from the
northern Rockies into the southern Plains. The severe weather risk
across our area does not appear overly high (upper low dig,
nothing big rule in place), especially if the favored ECMWF/UKMET
verify, with heavy rainfall and potential flooding being the
greatest concern, particularly across the northern half of our
forecast area. A wide range of temperatures will likely exist
Friday, with areas near the Kansas border struggling to reach 60,
while far southeast Oklahoma near the stalled frontal boundary may
approach 80.

A few showers may linger into Saturday, and it will be a cool day
with breezy northwest winds. A warming trend will commence Sunday
and continue into early next week, and we will also get a chance
to dry out during this time.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22



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