Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 111646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1046 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
strengthen from the north during the last 3-6 hours of the valid
TAF period following a cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Northerly winds will be gusty at times this morning following the
early morning cool frontal passage. Wind speeds are likely to
diminish during the afternoon hours, however. Temperatures will be
much cooler today in the wake of the front, except perhaps in
parts of far southeast Oklahoma. Most locations will still see
near to just above normal highs. Main change to the going forecast
has been to decrease afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees,
especially across areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders, with
cold advection likely to continue into early to mid afternoon.
Other weather elements appear on track except for tweaks according
to current trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently passing through the area which will push
temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue
on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through
the area on Friday...however the noticeably colder temps will lag
the wind shift and felt more so over the weekend.

The cold sfc high will be quickly shifting eastward Sat night into
Sunday while a sfc low develops to our west ahead of a fast moving
wave. This feature has been shown for several days amongst all
guidance...however its strength and resultant precip amounts have
varied considerable within both respective model and run times
solutions. The eventual degree of interaction w/ the subtropical
jet stream which is is forecast to lift northward into the
southern states may prove the deciding factor in the eventual wave
strength. Nevertheless precip is likely to develop atop the
retreating cold and dry airmass allowing for efficient low level
wet bulb cooling. This forecast will trend colder for this
timeframe versus guidance based on this scenario.  Resultant
profiles support freezing rain and possibly sleet from E OK into
far NW AR Sunday through Sunday night. Aforementioned
uncertainties w/ the wave do effect forecast precip amounts yet
the zone along the retreating frontal zone will be most likely
for any heavier amounts.

A rapid and and substantial warm up continues to appear likely for
next week...and especially mid to late next week. Fire weather
conditions will likely again become a focus.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22


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