Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 020454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF TULSA
BASED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF CU FIELD...OR
LACK THEREOF. AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS DUE MAINLY TO VERY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THERE
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NW AR...THERE
IS WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH HAS
YIELDED A COUPLE OF WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT A STORM WILL DEVELOP FROM THIS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
EARLY AUGUST ACROSS THE REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
MOST SUNNY SKIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOTHING TOO EXCESSIVE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLIRTS WITH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06


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