Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220831
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
231 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main items of interest in this morning`s forecast are: 1) Fog
coverage/thickness over portions of the region, 2) Record or near
record warmth thru Thursday, followed by below average temps to
start the weekend, 3) The wind and fire weather forecast for today
and more importantly Thursday, and finally 4) Thunderstorm and
severe weather potential early next week in an active pattern.

The main area of focus for dense fog development has shifted east
compared to last night, due to the drying influence of a boundary
that moved thru yesterday. Dense fog, however, has not been as
widespread or as thick over NW AR as it was last night over
eastern OK. I theorize this is due to the lingering low clouds
over there, which have prevented the more widespread radiational
cooling needed to support the fog layer. Since neighboring far
eastern OK is mostly clear, there is potential for some dense fog
development west of the current advisory. Trends will be monitored
for possible westward expansion of advisory.

The downslope flow pattern aloft will favor a strengthening and
expanding low level thermal ridge over the southern Plains thru
Thursday. With no obvious signal of widespread and lingering cloud
to spoil this, well above average highs are forecast across the
region, on the order of 20 to 30 degrees. Some records will be set
both days most likely. A strong cold front, in association with a
progressive and potent shortwave trough to move over the central
Plains, will push quickly southeast Thursday night into Friday.
Highs Friday and Saturday will likely be on the order of 20 to 30
degrees colder than the highs the next couple days, and will
actually drop below average. Talk about a see-saw affair. Sub-
freezing lows are forecast in some areas over the weekend.

While this next system will be a dry one for our area, it will
crank up the winds, a fact of life in the Great Plains. Winds will
turn around to the south today, but the approaching trough will be
too far west to influence surface pressures on the High Plains,
yet. Nevertheless, winds across NE OK will pick up some as a weak
area of low pressure slides by well to our north, and will be
strong enough to yield at least limited fire danger. Of more
concern will be Thursday, when the progressive wave ejects into
the central Plains. Deepening lee side low pressure over SW KS
will tighten the gradient and will result in strong winds. While
it does not appear that we will reach advisory criteria, the
strong winds combined with low humidity across portions of eastern
OK will yield conditions conducive for rapid fire spread. Fire
weather headlines may be issued in future shifts.

Our area will remain in the jet stream flow at the base of broad
cyclonic flow over the western 2/3rds of the nation going into
next week. A pair of fast moving waves embedded in this flow will
bring thunderstorm potential to our area. The first wave will
affect the region mainly Sunday night. What is different this
morning compared to yesterday is the expected northward expansion
of the warm sector in the wake of the weekend cold. The latest
ECMWF suggests the warm front will lift north to around the Red
River, leaving our area in the favorable warm advection/elevated
storm region. Our area should be in the warm sector for the second
wave Tuesday. The best chances for storms will be with the front
late Tuesday/Tuesday night, though some potential exists during
the day ahead of the boundary. The setup will be favorable for all
modes of severe weather. The forecast could change, considering
this is still 6 days out. Stay tuned to the latest updates as we
get closer to the event.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  52  83  46 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   80  51  83  53 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   80  55  81  49 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   81  46  81  43 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   77  47  78  51 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   76  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   79  51  79  49 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   78  52  79  47 /   0  10  10  10
F10   79  52  82  47 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   78  52  80  53 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-002-
     010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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