Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210306
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS ADDED TO THE EVENING FORECAST...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY...BUT THE
CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS /COPAN WILL
CLOUD UP SOON/ AS OF 03Z. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THRU THE
NIGHT...CONTINUING A STRING OF CLOUDY DAYS AND NIGHTS THAT
STRETCHES BACK TO THE 17TH. AS SUCH...LOWS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM TODAY`S HIGHS AND THE FORECAST IS WITHIN REASON OF
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE
LOW LEVELS IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOWS UP ON RADAR AND IN SOME OF THE METAR OBS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU THE NIGHT TO THE GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR
AS CEILINGS LOWER AND VISIBILITY EVENTUALLY BECOMES REDUCED
OVERNIGHT...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AS
WELL 12-18Z. MODEST IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  50  46  54 /   0  10  10  20
FSM   40  50  43  56 /   0  10  10  30
MLC   42  50  47  57 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   37  48  43  53 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   36  46  42  53 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   35  47  41  53 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   40  49  44  55 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   39  48  43  52 /   0  10  20  30
F10   40  49  45  56 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   42  50  45  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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