Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 081756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH EASTERN OK INTO
SOUTHWEST MO DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WILL BE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME 00Z-06Z.
AT THIS TIME...TAF SITES KMLC KFSM MOST LIKELY TO SEE AT
LEAST VICINITY THUNDER...SITES KBVO KTUL KRVS LEAST LIKELY.

OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF I-44 FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
THEN STALL LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN I40 AND RED RIVER.

LEFT OVER -SHRA FAR NORTHEAST OK FAR NORTHWEST AR
DIMINISHING. IN THE SHORT TERM REMOVED NOON - 4PM
POPS WHILE LEAVING LATE AFTERNOON POPS NORTH I-40
FOR POTENTIAL REGENERATION THUNDER NEAR BOUNDARY.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF A MCS MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI HAD
CLIPPED NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF CONVECTION WAS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...MOVING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL INDICATE THIS LINE TRYING TO
FALL APART JUST BEFORE IT GETS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BE A LITTLE
COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 40 BY THIS
EVENING. AFTERNOON HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT
NEAR THE RED RIVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS NEAR 100
DEGREES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE HOT TEMPS COULD BE SHORT LIVED AS EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SOME COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  69  90  71 /  20  30  10  30
FSM   96  72  89  72 /  20  40  30  30
MLC   96  73  91  73 /  10  40  20  30
BVO   90  66  89  69 /  20  20  10  30
FYV   90  66  86  66 /  30  40  10  20
BYV   90  66  86  66 /  30  30  10  20
MKO   95  70  89  71 /  20  30  20  30
MIO   90  65  88  66 /  20  20  10  20
F10   96  71  90  72 /  10  30  20  30
HHW   96  74  93  73 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21




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