Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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272
FXUS64 KTSA 211155
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
655 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Initial convective complex currently moving through northwest Arkansas
this morning with IFR conditions in the stronger storms. Multiple rounds
of showers/thunderstorms expected across E OK/NW AR today through
the evening hours. Storms should begin clearing NW OK by mid
evening and shift east of AR TAF sites shortly after midnight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor imagery showed progressive shortwave
trough moving across northeastern New Mexico and over the OK/TX
panhandles. The surface front extended from a low southwest of
Midland northeast to near Wichita Falls through southeast
Oklahoma. Elevated storms are ongoing across northeast Oklahoma,
forming along and north of the 850mb front. So far these storms
have been below severe limits. Most areas have received up to a
half inch of rain with isolated amounts over an inch.

The main concern today will be additional heavy rain and the
potential for flooding. There are several rivers in our area which
are forecast to have minor or moderate flooding based on forecast
precipitation amounts. The NAM shows the heaviest QPF axis farther
north across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas while
the ECMWF is a bit farther south. It does appear that widespread
2-3" amounts will occur today with locally higher amounts. We will
add Sequoyah and McIntosh counties to the ongoing Flood Watch.

As far as severe weather, the better potential is south of I-40.
The front will not lift north in areas where there has been
recent or ongoing convection. There are some storms approaching
from central OK that could produce isolated large hail across
mainly east central Oklahoma this morning. If storms can initiate
later this afternoon along the stalled front in southern
Oklahoma, they could affect mainly southeast Oklahoma by late
afternoon.

Short wave trough axis will be over northeast Oklahoma tonight,
which will drive the boundary south and bring an end to the rain
by early Saturday morning. Temperatures on Saturday will be quite
chilly compared to recent days, with highs in the 50s and lows on
Sunday morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday will bring a
return to sunshine and a warmup, with the next chance for
precipitation arriving by Wednesday.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
AVIATION...12



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