Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 021130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Flight conditions are highly variable early this morning, but the
trend will be for MVFR ceilings for the first few hours at the
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas terminals, with some
ceilings as low as IFR at times in northwest Arkansas. Ceilings
should lift to VFR by midday, with VFR conditions then expected to
prevail for the rest of the forecast period. If skies clear
tonight, some patchy fog may develop, but the confidence is too
low to include in the TAF`s at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered to the north pushing its way through the plains
this morning. Will keep pops confined to the east and southeast through the
morning...with slightly higher chances across far southeast Oklahoma for
locations near the Red River. Once this feature clears the area...ridging
out to west will slowly translate to central United States...while
at the same time one low pressure system organizes across the east
and one to the west. This will result in a period of settled weather
across the plains...one that will continue for the week and will
offer afternoon temperatures close to climatological averages. By
the latter half of this upcoming weekend...the upper pattern
starts to become more progressive...and the upper flow will
transition to more southwesterly as the upper low to the west
approaches. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
at that time...however moisture return may come into
question...which would impact areal coverage of rain/thunder...along
with severe potential.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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