796
FXUS64 KTSA 061800
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next week
     with higher chances for the first half of the week.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected. However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a cold front
     possible by the following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Moist southerly low level flow continues today. It`ll be warm and
humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points mostly
in the low to mid 70s. A weak frontal boundary is stalled just
north of the forecast area. This, along with a little forcing from
a transient and weak upper level trough will likely kick off a
few showers and thunderstorms across far northeast OK and northwest
Arkansas through this evening. A few showers or storms may also
form this afternoon due to diurnal heating through the rest of
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A pattern of diffuse troughing will continue through the first half
of the week, with periodic weak impulses increasing storm activity
from time to time. CAM guidance seems to be increasing in
confidence that one such feature will increase storm activity
across far eastern OK and northwest AR on Monday. Another round of
showers and storms may spread through the area with a follow on
feature Tuesday and Wednesday. Most areas will probably see a half
inch of rain or less, but given very high moisture content, a few
locations could see (potentially) much heavier rain, even if
briefly. A few of the storms may become marginally severe in terms
of wind, but overall non severe storms will be the norm.

Shortwave ridging returns for a day or two Thursday to Friday, so
storm activity will diminish with temperatures climbing into the mid
90s. Given recent rains, dew points will likely surge into the mid
to upper 70s, so afternoon heat indices will approach Heat Advisory
criteria (105 F). The increased heat won`t last long, with
another cold front approaching towards the weekend. Ensemble
guidance shows decent confidence in another wet period next
weekend, though details are unknown at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Greater coverage of convective shra/tsra expected this afternoon
across northwest AR on the southern edge of a trough axis
extending across the MO Valley. Outside of storms, VFR conditions
expected to prevail. Moisture plume and disturbance from north TX
into southeast OK may support isolated shra/tsra in the vicinity
of KMLC though with lower certainty left out of the forecast.
Across remainder of northeast OK, higher confidence of storms
impacting KBVO where higher shear is present aiding some
organization of activity working south from KS so left Prob30
there for this afternoon but did not take as far south as
KTUL/KRVS where coverage if any will be more isolated. Also
guidance suggests some light fog may develop toward morning across
northern OK into portions of northwest AR. For now have only
include TEMPO MVFR conditions at KBVO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   74  93  73  91 /  10  40  10  60
MLC   72  90  73  90 /  10  20  10  50
BVO   71  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  40
FYV   71  90  70  87 /  20  40  20  60
BYV   71  90  70  87 /  30  40  20  60
MKO   73  90  72  88 /  10  20  10  50
MIO   72  89  71  88 /  30  40  20  50
F10   72  89  71  88 /  10  20  10  50
HHW   73  91  72  89 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...24