Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 272346
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
546 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
THE TEMPERATURE AT KBVO IS NEAR FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
IT TO FALL TONIGHT AND EVEN COULD RISE A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT...
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
COULD OCCUR THERE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR TONIGHT
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
Will continue all headlines as is with this forecast package. The
flash flood watch in the north will expire at 7 pm, with
additional rainfall rates after that time not expected to be
sufficient to result in flash flooding. Higher rainfall rates to
the south support the continuation of the flash flood watch there
The winter weather headlines are more problematic as even one
additional degree of cooling will result in more significant
winter weather impacts northwest of Tulsa. Current trends suggest
temperatures should change little overnight, and perhaps even rise
a degree in some places by morning. Thus, will keep the freezing
rain advisory where it is now, but as mentioned even a one degree
drop will require expansion to the southeast.
A very slow modification of the shallow cold air will take place
over the next 48 hours, with the NAM12 continuing to be followed
for temperature guidance during this time period. Rain chances
will continue through the weekend and perhaps into Monday as the
upper low finally lifts out into the central Plains. Rainfall
coverage and intensity should lessen though by the latter half of
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail during the
middle to latter part of next week.
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ049-053-
Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ056>058-
Freezing Rain Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for OKZ054.
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-