Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251521
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1021 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
HI PRES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PD. WINDS
WILL BE EVEN LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THUS NO
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL CONDITIONS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED
ACROSS THE CWA FOR TODAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE RANGE OF AROUND 100 TO
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
BIT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP DEWPOINTS TO
FALL OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS...NO HEAT HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AS OF
NOW.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURE OVER THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...THOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR A
SHORTWAVE TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS THE
INDICATION AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST DOESNT WANT TO GIVE
WAY. THUS...WILL PUSH BACK THE START OF PRECIP CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE THE TROF AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE
CWA. WILL KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CARRYING POPS IN THE
20-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH POTENTIAL HIGHS IN THE
80S/LOW 90S FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10





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