Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN COMMON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION INTERACTS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GREATER PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL ADD
VCTS/PROB30 GROUPS TO XNA/FYV/FSM. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
VIS/CIGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO VFR WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIP MENTION FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/LOW 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  69  89 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   68  85  67  87 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   71  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   67  87  67  88 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   65  83  64  84 /  60  40  10  10
BYV   64  80  64  82 /  60  40  10  10
MKO   68  86  67  86 /  20  40  10  10
MIO   67  84  66  85 /  60  40  10  10
F10   69  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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