Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 180442
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1142 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR TAF elements expected for most of the period at all
sites...except brief for brief IFR cigs at KBVO. Another storm
complex to the southwest will approach the eastern OK TAF sites
late tonight. However...the complex is still expected to weaken
as it approaches...so at this time will only include a VCTS
mention for the NE OK sites...except for KBVO where a tempo
thunder group will run from 11z to 15z.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 924 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Convection has waned over the past few hours however has yet to
fully dissipate with periodic pulses of stronger storms still be
realized. This is likely due in part to the subtropical moisture
plume overhead and the resultant axis of deeper moisture.
Furthermore guidance continues to struggle with the overall
convective evolution. Updated forecast will adjust for current
observed trends and then expand precip chances a bit higher for
the overnight hours assuming some type of disturbance eminates
from the current High Plains convection and interacts with the
aforementioned moisture plume.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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