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000
FXUS64 KTSA 041715
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1115 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KFSM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER THIS MORNING IS PROGRESSING AS FORECAST. WILL NOT
UPDATE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS TODAY...AND SOUTH WINDS
WILL RETURN...THOUGH SHOULD STAY AOB 10KTS GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE
GRADIENT. HIGH CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS A
WAVE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. A SMALL AREA OF LIFR CIGS OVER IN NW
AR WILL AFFECT KXNA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING
OFF. OTHERWISE...VFR TO PREVAIL.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT AFTER
YESTERDAYS BRUTAL COLD...IT SHOULD FEEL ALMOST WARM BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH WILL
GO A LONG WAY TOWARD MELTING REMAINING SNOW AND IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IMPACTING
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECENT NAM RUNS LOOK TO BE THE OVERWHELMING
OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...AND
AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION
FAVORED BY THE GFS/ECMWF. SUFFICIENT COLUMN SATURATION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DELAYED FROM THE
EARLIER FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFFECTING WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS DISTURBANCE...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SET TO
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOW TO EXIT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THIS PERIOD TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION MENTION. NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO START OFF ON A WARM NOTE SO THERE IS SOMETHING TO LOOK
FORWARD TO.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06