Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Brief MVFR vsbys in light fog will be possible early in the TAF
period across KMLC and KRVS. Otherwise...VFR conditions to prevail
through the period. SFC wind gusts around 25 kts across the NE OK
sites from mid morning through the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

Unseasonably warm weather expected over the next couple of days
as strong upper ridge builds over the Southern Plains. Near record
highs are expected on Monday with high temperatues climbing to
around 90 degrees in a few areas. Although low level moisture will
continue to increase, an elevated fire danger threat is expected
both Today and Monday given the very warm conditions and gusty
south winds.

Another warm afternoon expected on Tuesday south of a cold front
which will move into northeast Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible north of the
front Tuesday night into Wednesday as boundary stalls across
southeast Oklahoma. Elevated instability/shear profiles suggest
a few of these storms could be severe with large hail given
the steep lapse rates expected. Front will quickly lift north
Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of next upper level storm
system moving into the southern Rockies.

As upper system approaches, line of strong to severe thunderstorms
will likely develop along cold front during the day Friday with
convective line sweeping through the area by late Friday evening.
Overall severe weather threats will continue to be refined over
the next several days as timing/exact track of system becomes
more certain.




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