Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191936
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper high currently located directly over the region will
continue to dominate the overall weather pattern. Oppressively
hot/humid conditions expected for the next few days with afternoon
heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree range across most of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Therefore, the heat
advisory will be extended until Friday evening. Overnight lows,
especially in the Tulsa metro will not provide much relief from
the heat. It should be noted that dew-points at the Forth Smith
observational site is likely reading too high over the last
couple of days and heat indices this afternoon are more likely in
the 106-108 range.

Generally a persistence forecast through at least Friday with a
slow warming trend. Dew-points may drop off a degree or two each
day as soil conditions continue to dry out. This will hopefully
keep heat indices below 110 degrees. The heat advisory will likely
need to be extended into Saturday for some areas as the excessive
heat continues.

Operational models continue to suggest that a weakness in the upper
ridge will develop by Sunday with scattered showers/thunderstorms
possible. GFS is still the most aggressive with precipitation
Sunday night into Monday, likely due to MCS/MCV development under
light northwest flow aloft. ECMWF has a significantly less QPF
signal during this time, so for now will keep chance pops through
the early part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  98  80  98 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   77  97  77  97 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   75  97  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   74  99  74  98 /   0  10   0  10
FYV   69  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   71  95  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   73  96  74  97 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   73  97  73  97 /   0  10  10  10
F10   74  97  75  98 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   74  96  75  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....12



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