Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 250919
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The big warmup starts today, with very warm and humid conditions
expected by Friday and Saturday. A weak frontal boundary may dip
into parts of northeast Oklahoma Friday and Friday night and hold
temperatures down slightly, especially for overnight lows Friday
night, but this boundary will lift north of the area Saturday
morning. A strong cap is likely to inhibit thunderstorm
development near the boundary Friday, but the cap may weaken
enough overnight for a few storms near the boundary Friday night
across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Any
storm that does develop will have the potential to be severe.

A higher end severe event looks to be shaping up for late Saturday
afternoon and evening. Extreme instability will develop, and an
approaching shortwave will help to weaken the cap enough for
potentially explosive severe thunderstorm development ahead of a
cold front that will move through the area Saturday night. All
modes of severe weather will be possible at least initially.

Sunday and Monday will be quiet behind the front, with
temperatures near or just above the seasonal normals. Low shower
and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and Wednesday, with
temperatures remaining near the seasonal normals.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  90  70 /   0  10  10  20
FSM   84  67  91  74 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   85  70  91  75 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   82  61  89  65 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   78  61  84  66 /   0   0  10  30
BYV   78  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   83  68  90  72 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   79  65  86  66 /   0  10  10  20
F10   83  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   85  68  91  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

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