546
FXUS64 KTSA 070515
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025
   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next
     week with higher chances for the first half of the week.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected.However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a weak cold front
     possible by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Showers and storms will gradually end overnight with just isolated
showers possibly lingering past sunrise Monday. The overall pattern
remains similar however the remnant outflow boundary and weak
influence from mid level troughing does raise a chance of afternoon
showers and storms over a broader portion of the forecast area
Monday afternoon through evening. Expect a similar decline in precip
chances into the overnight hours Monday night. Isolated strong
storms and heavy downpours remain the primary hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A stronger wave continues to be shown moving across the central
CONUS on Tuesday with the influence extending into the southern
Plains on the periphery of the upper ridge. A trend upward in
overall shower and storm coverage is expected across the local
region along with a few more strong to severe storms through the
afternoon and evening hours.

Daily thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday through Friday though
the overall coverage is forecast to trend downward while high temps
warm a few degrees. Afternoon heat index values and corresponding
heat risk will tend upward for mid to late week.
Guidance continues to indicate the upper ridge weakens across the
western CONUS allowing a weak cold front to push into the region
toward next weekend. This scenario carries uncertainties largely
associated with climatology but the trend remains in the guidance.
Should this occur expect daily shower and storm chances to increase
while temps remain near to slightly below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Ongoing thunderstorms in NE OK are generally decreasing in
coverage and intensity, although gusty wind impacts from the
outflow boundary persist at RVS and will for the next hour or two.
Smaller showers have developed on the eastern periphery of the
ongoing activity and will carry a VCSH mention for the far NW AR
sites given their proximity to the development. The next chance
for thunderstorm impacts will occur during the afternoon and
evening, which will be covered with a PROB30 at all 8 terminals.
Coverage remains likely to be highest for W AR and into SE OK, but
recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS show enough coverage in parts of
NE OK to introduce a mention for those terminals also. Outside of
thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions to prevail. Given the brief
period of reduced visibilities at BVO around sunrise the last
couple of mornings, the TEMPO for MVFR conditions will be
maintained with this set of TAFs also.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  90  72  91 /  20  40  20  20
FSM   74  91  73  91 /  30  60  30  30
MLC   72  90  72  91 /  20  40  30  30
BVO   70  89  69  91 /  20  40  20  10
FYV   70  88  69  88 /  30  60  30  30
BYV   70  89  68  88 /  30  60  30  30
MKO   72  88  71  89 /  20  40  30  20
MIO   72  88  70  89 /  30  50  20  20
F10   72  90  71  90 /  20  40  30  20
HHW   72  90  72  91 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22