Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 191116
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
516 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WORK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE COLDER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A
WEAK WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. THAT SAID...FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS SUGGESTS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
MODEST WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

1000-850MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
THE SWRN STATES FRIDAY AND INTO TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-44.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS VERY MUCH IN DOUBT
AS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.