Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE AND IS INTERACTING WITH
A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. AS STRONG WIND
FIELDS SPREAD DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE WAVE THE STORM COMPLEX WILL
REMAIN ORGANIZED AND MAINTAIN THE RAPID E-NE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. RAPID ONSET FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. ADDITIONALLY...A
TRANSIENT TORNADIC RISK WILL PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
MESOVORTICIES ALONG LINEAR SEGMENTS AND ALSO WITH SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AUGMENTED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF
STRONG MCV CENTER.

PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLY CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER SYSTEM
AND A MORE SUSTAINED DRY PERIOD DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VARIOUS
DATA HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON AGAIN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND POSSIBLY INTO EASTERN OK. FORCING ALOFT IS RATHER NEBULOUS
DURING THIS PERIOD SO UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS HOWEVER ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING AND THUS A HEAVY
RAIN CONCERN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LESSER COVERAGE
PRECIP PERIOD. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE PATTERN RETURNS TO TROUGHING
THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  81  65  82 /  70  10  50  40
FSM   64  81  66  85 / 100  20  40  40
MLC   62  80  67  83 /  80  20  60  40
BVO   59  80  62  83 /  50  10  40  40
FYV   61  78  62  80 / 100  20  30  30
BYV   61  79  63  80 / 100  30  30  30
MKO   61  80  65  82 /  90  20  50  50
MIO   61  79  62  82 /  70  20  50  30
F10   60  80  65  82 /  80  20  60  50
HHW   64  82  68  83 /  80  20  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




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