Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL / WESTERN OK WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD WITH BRIEF AVIATION IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS LIKELY. PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN
OK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT / DEVELOP NORTHWARD TODAY PER LATEST
DATA. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE WARMED QUICKLY WITH ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WITH MUCH LESS WARMING ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CIRRUS. CONVECTION ONGOING
ACROSS WESTERN OK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS
PASSES. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS WITH HIGH
TEMPS LOOKING REASONABLE ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES AS FAR
NORTH AS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  62  72  52 /  30  90  60  20
FSM   80  64  78  59 /  10  90  60  40
MLC   79  66  77  56 /  40  90  60  40
BVO   71  58  68  50 /  20  90  50  20
FYV   76  60  72  52 /  10  80  60  30
BYV   73  58  71  50 /  10  70  60  30
MKO   78  63  74  55 /  20  90  60  30
MIO   73  60  68  50 /  10  80  60  20
F10   77  64  75  54 /  50  90  60  30
HHW   80  67  81  61 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




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