Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 071527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1027 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR WITH 100-101 EXPECTED IN
TULSA AND BARTLESVILLE. HEAT INDEX WILL TOP 105 THRESHOLD
TULSA / WASHINGTON COUNTIES NORTHEAST OK SO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUED THERE FOR 1PM - 7PM TIME PERIOD.  REST OF FORECAST
UNCHANGED FROM MID-SHIFT PRODUCTION.                   GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE SEEN SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FIRST TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS OF THE YEAR IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH THE 105 HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH OR
EXCEED CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING
WEDNESDAY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES BEING TO THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES
LOOKS TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE
ECMWF BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE...AND LIKELY FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE COOLDOWN NEXT WEEK.

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BUT OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  77  95  70 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   97  75  96  73 /  10  10  10  30
MLC   96  76  95  74 /   0   0  10  20
BVO  100  75  91  66 /   0  10  30  30
FYV   93  72  91  66 /  10  10  30  40
BYV   93  73  90  67 /  10  10  30  30
MKO   97  75  95  71 /   0  10  10  30
MIO   96  74  90  66 /   0  10  30  30
F10   97  75  95  71 /   0  10  10  30
HHW   95  74  95  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....10




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