Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 221207
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
707 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Main challenges for morning TAFs are ceilings and precipitation
chances. Clouds will increase through the day...though all the TAF
sites expected to stay VFR through mid afternoon/early evening.
Best chance for aftn storms seem to be at MLC before 00z...and
just used prob groups for the AR TAFs after 06z. MVFR/IFR ceilings
possible after 06z at many of the TAF sites as low clouds move
into the area.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture starting to surge back north through central/
northern Texas early this morning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will be possible by mid/late morning across southeast Oklahoma,
otherwise clouds will begin to increase from north to south this
afternoon. Better precipitation chances will be tonight into
Tuesday as upper wave approaches from the southwest and as
stronger low level jet develops.

Warming trend will continue through mid week with a significant warm
up expected on Wednesday as upper high builds across the southeast
states. High temperatures will likely climb into the mid 90s across
most of eastern Oklahoma with heat indices around the century
mark. The good news is this will likely be the hottest day this
week with a downward trend in temperatures during the latter part
of the week.

Upper high will begin to weaken by Thursday as upper disturbance
shifts east out of the four corners region. Cold front will move
into northeast Oklahoma late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Boundary is expected to stall over the region and provide
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday/Friday
with at least low precipitation chances persisting through the
weekend. Mostly cloudy conditions will likely keep high temperatures
below normal through the extended periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  74  89  77 /  10  40  50  20
FSM   84  72  89  74 /  10  40  40  20
MLC   86  73  89  74 /  30  40  30  20
BVO   87  69  88  73 /   0  30  50  20
FYV   80  69  82  70 /   0  30  50  20
BYV   83  68  84  73 /  10  20  50  20
MKO   86  72  87  74 /  10  40  40  20
MIO   86  70  87  73 /  10  20  50  20
F10   86  72  89  73 /  10  40  40  20
HHW   83  71  91  72 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06
LONG TERM....12



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.