Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260009
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
709 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Big weather changes ongoing across the region this afternoon and
evening. Looking aloft, a potent PV max was moving east across
the Northern Plains with the base of the parent trough diving
southeast across the Central Plains. Another upper low was
located over NW Mexico with SW flow aloft over our area. At the
surface, a cold front extended south of a surface low over Central
Canada across the Ozarks and down into south central Oklahoma. A
large area of dynamic surface high pressure was located over the
Northwestern CONUS, in the wake of the Northern Plains trough.

A band of stratiform rain continues behind the front, forced
mainly by the slight anafrontal nature of the flow aloft relative
to the surface front. Other scattered showers and isolated storms
were occurring in the warm sector ahead of the front. The
stratiform rain band should continue to shift SE with the front
and gradually weaken as the upper flow begins to veer to W and
then NW with approaching trough axis. Convection ahead of the
front will wane with the loss of daytime heating. The pops have
been adjusted to account for current radar trends and the forecast
reasoning. Updated text products have been sent.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front has pushed into NW AR this evening...with a line of
post frontal showers across northeast OK. The precipitation will
end at KTUL/KRVS within a couple hours...and for the rest of the
TAF sites...will carry TEMPO groups for showers this evening. Some
sites in NE OK are briefly reporting IFR ceilings but that should
not last. Lightning has been isolated and will not mention at any
of the terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The much anticipated cold front is making its way through the
forecasts area this afternoon and is currently positioned near
Interstate 44. A broken band of light to moderate showers extends
roughly along the front, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
ahead of the boundary. The overall area of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to make southeastward progress
overnight, with the front exiting southeast Oklahoma by midnight.

A cooler and drier airmass will settle over Oklahoma and Arkansas
behind the front, as evidenced by dew points in the 30s and 40s in
Kansas and Nebraska at present. Temperatures both Monday and
Tuesday are likely to be a few degrees below normal in most
locations. The airmass will moderate some by Wednesday, but a
backdoor cold front Wednesday night should serve to keep
conditions below normal to close out the work week. All in all, it
should be a quiet weather week after the current system clears the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  76  48  79 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   65  76  50  80 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   63  76  48  79 /  40  10   0   0
BVO   52  75  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   57  72  44  75 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   58  72  46  75 /  40  10   0   0
MKO   57  75  48  78 /  60  10   0   0
MIO   54  72  47  76 /  50   0   0   0
F10   58  75  49  78 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   65  77  55  81 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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