Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EXPANDS
NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO
THIS...RISING INTO THE 90S TODAY MOST AREAS...AND APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK TUESDAY ACROSS NE OK. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY THAT HAS NOW RETURNED AND IS HERE TO STAY WILL CAUSE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB TO THE DANGEROUS 105 DEGREE LEVEL
ACROSS NE OK TUESDAY AND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TULSA METRO WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW 75
DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING THE NEED FOR AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH FOR TULSA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A BROADER HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NE OK TUESDAY AND WILL BE
ADDRESSED BY FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE FRONT
WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...ALBEIT BRIEF...FOR
THURSDAY. THE HEAT RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A N TO NW FLOW
PATTERN WILL SET UP ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AS A STRONG AND DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





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