Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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709
FXUS64 KTSA 211726
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Line of strong to severe storms will bring threat of wind gusts
over 40 knots to western AR sites through 20z. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will continue through the evening with IFR
conditions prevailing, and only limited improvement to flight
conditions expected through 18z Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 950 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Regional sfc analysis at 14z showed warm front extending from
approximately southern Sebastian County eastward to just south of
McAlester. Regarding severe weather potential, this will be the
feature to watch, and with ongoing widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall north of the front, not much northward movement is
expected until possibly later today as main sfc low lifts
northeast. Severe weather potential increasing over the next 1-2
hours across SE OK as organizing complex moving through OKC metro
continues southeast. There will be at least some tornado potential
as the storms interact with the effective warm front. No changes
made to Flash Flood Watch at this time, main updates are for
increased POPS across southeast OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 655 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Initial convective complex currently moving through northwest Arkansas
this morning with IFR conditions in the stronger storms. Multiple rounds
of showers/thunderstorms expected across E OK/NW AR today through
the evening hours. Storms should begin clearing NW OK by mid
evening and shift east of AR TAF sites shortly after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor imagery showed progressive shortwave
trough moving across northeastern New Mexico and over the OK/TX
panhandles. The surface front extended from a low southwest of
Midland northeast to near Wichita Falls through southeast
Oklahoma. Elevated storms are ongoing across northeast Oklahoma,
forming along and north of the 850mb front. So far these storms
have been below severe limits. Most areas have received up to a
half inch of rain with isolated amounts over an inch.

The main concern today will be additional heavy rain and the
potential for flooding. There are several rivers in our area which
are forecast to have minor or moderate flooding based on forecast
precipitation amounts. The NAM shows the heaviest QPF axis farther
north across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas while
the ECMWF is a bit farther south. It does appear that widespread
2-3" amounts will occur today with locally higher amounts. We will
add Sequoyah and McIntosh counties to the ongoing Flood Watch.

As far as severe weather, the better potential is south of I-40.
The front will not lift north in areas where there has been
recent or ongoing convection. There are some storms approaching
from central OK that could produce isolated large hail across
mainly east central Oklahoma this morning. If storms can initiate
later this afternoon along the stalled front in southern
Oklahoma, they could affect mainly southeast Oklahoma by late
afternoon.

Short wave trough axis will be over northeast Oklahoma tonight,
which will drive the boundary south and bring an end to the rain
by early Saturday morning. Temperatures on Saturday will be quite
chilly compared to recent days, with highs in the 50s and lows on
Sunday morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday will bring a
return to sunshine and a warmup, with the next chance for
precipitation arriving by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  46  57  40 / 100  80  10  10
FSM   73  53  59  42 /  90  80  10  10
MLC   74  49  59  41 / 100  80  10   0
BVO   59  45  56  37 / 100  80  10   0
FYV   64  46  52  36 / 100  90  30  10
BYV   59  45  51  38 / 100  90  40  10
MKO   66  49  57  40 / 100  80  10  10
MIO   58  45  54  39 / 100  90  20  10
F10   65  48  58  41 / 100  80  10   0
HHW   80  52  61  43 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14



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