Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220402
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1002 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ASIDE FROM ADDING A BIT MORE SNOW ACCUM TO HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SE OKLAHOMA.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THIS EVENING WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING VERY PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP
BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG I-40 IN CENTRAL/WESTERN OK ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ZONE. THIS IS LIKELY THE AREA SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON. WESTERN END OF THIS BAND HAS
SEEN CHANGE TO SNOW IN LAST FEW HOURS BUT TEMPS STILL AROUND 40 IN
OKC AREA. EVENTUALLY SOME MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OK LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU
MORNING BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON TEMPS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 500M EVEN WITHIN HEAVIEST PRECIP BAND WHICH
DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO MUCH SNOW POTENTIAL...WITH EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN SE OKLAHOMA. BOTTOM LINE IS BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL ARE IN THE ZONE OF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW RATES
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO
GRASSY SURFACES WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE ZERO.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS ERN OK AND W CNTRL AR
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU AROUND MID
MORNING ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM. SNOW MAY MIX
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES AT KMLC WHEN THE PRECIP IS THE
HEAVIEST...AND JUST BRIEFLY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD AT KTUL/KRVS/KFYV. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NE OK AND
NW AR SITES. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY AT KMLC AND KFSM LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THESE SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AZ WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SHORTER RANGE/
HIGH RES MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO
WITH MID LEVEL ECHOES ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK SUGGEST
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIP TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW. ANY SNOW BANDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY NARROW
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW (IF AT
ALL) AND THE EXACT LOCATION...HAVE FORECAST A SWATH OF 0.2 TO NEAR
AN INCH ALONG/JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD STILL SEE SOME
LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST STATES. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK DOWN-SLOPE
FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  46  26  48 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   38  44  32  48 /  70  50  10  10
MLC   36  46  29  48 / 100  70  10  10
BVO   33  45  23  48 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   35  44  27  45 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   34  43  28  44 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   36  47  29  47 /  60  30  10   0
MIO   33  45  26  47 /  10  10   0   0
F10   36  46  28  48 /  80  40  10   0
HHW   39  43  33  48 / 100  90  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99










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