Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171136
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs to prevail over most TAF sites through the period.
Periods of IFR cigs will also be possible across the NW AR
sites. Slightly more shallow moisture may scatter out cigs or a
time during the first portion of the TAF period across NE OK. A
weak front will move through tonight...and will begin to translate
MVFR/IFR cigs NW to SE late in the period. However...clearing
across KFSM and KMLC may occur just beyond this issuance. Will
only include KFSM in Prob30 for thunder late afternoon/evening
with best moisture profile in place at that location.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably mild conditions this morning as southerly winds
continue under mostly cloudy skies. Weak cold front, currently
located near a Dodge City KS, Lincoln NE line, will move into
northeast Oklahoma near I-44 by mid afternoon. A few scattered
showers will be possible with an isolated thunderstorm or two
by early evening, mainly across northwest Arkansas where slightly
deeper moisture will be present.

Front will continue to push slowly south overnight with a few
lingering showers across southeast Oklahoma. Boundary will stall
near the Red River Saturday morning before lifting back north as
a warm front. Very warm/breezy weather expected on Sunday as
strong upper ridge builds east into the Southern Plains.

Another front will move into the area Monday afternoon as upper
jet streak moves across the Great Lakes region. Precipitation
chances will begin to increase Monday night into Tuesday along/
ahead of front as fast moving short wave moves out of the Central
Rockies.

As much stronger upper level storm system will move across the
desert southwest on Wednesday, shifting east into the Central
Plains around the Thursday/Friday time frame. GFS is a little
faster and more aggressive with system compared to the slower and
slightly further north ECMWF track. Regardless of exact timing,
severe weather potential will begin to increase with dry line/front,
especially if GFS solution verifies.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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