Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171750
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LAYER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHILE A MORE
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH SOME FEW TO SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAF SITES
FOR NOW. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION FOR NOW AND LET THE EVENING
SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTERACTING WITH A VORT MAX PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS THE VORT MAX CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARD.

ALSO THIS MORNING...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTHWARD
SOME INTO THE CWA TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY
IN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS/WX GRIDS AND TWEAK SKY/TEMP
GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  98  77  99 /  10  10  20  10
FSM   73  96  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   71  96  73  96 /  20   0  10  10
BVO   67  99  70  99 /  10  10  20  10
FYV   67  91  70  94 /  20   0  20  10
BYV   68  91  72  94 /  20   0  20  10
MKO   71  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   68  95  74  95 /  10   0  20  10
F10   72  97  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   72  97  72  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




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