Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 220748
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
248 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The heat and humidity of the past few days will continue through
the weekend, with some short duration relief early next week
followed by more hot weather through the end of next week. High
temperatures today should be very similar to yesterday`s, likely
within a degree or two, with heat index values across portions of
eastern Oklahoma reaching 110 again this afternoon. The front
slated to move through at least a part of the area Sunday and into
Monday looks to be a bit slower than at this same time yesterday,
leading to hotter high temperatures and moisture values during
the afternoon than earlier anticipated. Heat index values look to
be at least in the 105 to 110 range, with some potential for
higher than 110, especially in areas where moisture pools ahead of
the front. Both existing heat headlines have been extended
through Sunday afternoon, although uncertainty in reaching warning
criteria on Sunday is higher than today. Thunderstorm potential
will increase along the front mainly late afternoon and into
Sunday evening across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
with some isolated severe wind gust potential.

Monday should be the coolest day of the period, at least in part
due to residual convective cloud cover. Additional thunderstorms
will be possible along the front during the afternoon and evening,
with the potential diminishing from southwest to northeast through
Tuesday.

Upper level ridging builds into the central United States again
toward the middle to latter part of next week, bringing the
potential for triple digit high temperatures back to the region by
Thursday and possibly as early as Wednesday. In general, the
blended guidance temperatures appear too low and were increased a
couple of degrees each day in the extended. Heat headlines can
again be expected late next week.

Another cooldown and increase in thunderstorm chances could be in
the offing for next weekend, as the upper level ridge shifts
westward, bringing northwest flow closer to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  80  99  75 /   0   0  30  40
FSM  100  77  99  77 /   0   0  20  30
MLC   98  77  98  75 /   0   0  20  30
BVO  103  75  97  71 /   0  10  40  50
FYV   95  72  92  71 /   0   0  30  40
BYV   97  74  93  72 /  10  10  30  40
MKO   98  75  97  74 /   0   0  30  40
MIO   97  74  95  73 /   0  10  30  40
F10  100  76  98  74 /   0   0  30  40
HHW   98  75  96  75 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-059-063-068-
     069-072-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>058-
     060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22


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