Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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995
FXUS64 KTSA 161137
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL SITES MAINLY AFTER 02Z
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE
REGION...THE FIRST IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES REGION AND INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS. THE PANHANDLES STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET...AND SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO A REGION OF WEAKER INSTABILITY. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT AREAS TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT OVERALL...THEY SHOULD NOT
IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARKANSAS ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH
MID MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
ATOP A MODESTLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...PROVIDED THAT LINGERING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPEDE AFTERNOON HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE THE FAVORED THUNDERSTORM
MODE DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE EVENT...WITH A TRANSITION TO A
LINEAR MODE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER
LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL HELICITY FIELDS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A
STRONG TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS INDICATING SOME
QLCS TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO VERY SATURATED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LEADING TO
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WERE TO ADD THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EXCEPT FOR OSAGE AND
PAWNEE...WHICH HAVE NOT SEEN AS MUCH RAIN AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TOMORROW...WITH PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS REMAINING FAIRLY WET INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS
NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL
FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





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