Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS FROM LIFR TO MVFR ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AND THEN
VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND A SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/LOWER VIS MAY REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...INDICATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOWER CEILINGS PUSHING OUT OF THE REGION WITH
HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS
THAN FIVE DEGREES WITHIN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WERE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...A PART OF THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS AND THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...WESTERLY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUD DECKS FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SOME POSSIBLE SCATTERED/BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALSO SHIFT ANY REMAINING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.

WITH LIFTING CEILINGS AND WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPS OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DO NOT LOOK TO
WARM ALL THAT MUCH TODAY AS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THUS...FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...WILL TWEAK SKY GRIDS AND
ALSO HIGH TEMPS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE. WILL ALSO ADJUST POPS/WX
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE REST OF THE ONGOING FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  36  48  32 /  30  10  10  20
FSM   56  39  50  34 /  40  20  10  20
MLC   57  39  51  34 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   52  32  47  31 /  30  10  10  20
FYV   52  35  47  31 /  40  20  10  20
BYV   52  37  48  32 /  40  20  10  20
MKO   55  36  49  33 /  30  10  10  20
MIO   51  33  46  32 /  50  10  10  20
F10   56  37  49  33 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   60  42  52  35 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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