Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 201616
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS DEAMPLIFIED...AS THE
DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS
BROKEN DOWN BY SOME ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF THE EXTENDED CROSS-
PACIFIC JET. AT THE SURFACE...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SOME ENERGY ON THE
NOSE OF THE JET. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WEST TX
UP INTO OUR AREA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN
AT THE SURFACE...WHERE WINDS ARE MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY.
THIS INFLUENCE MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS UP FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS WE WERE YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS...WITH SOME MIXING
THE RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. I MADE A SLIGHT TWEAK TO TODAYS HIGHS
USING SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR DATA.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OK/WC AR AFTER 03Z SPREADING NORTH AFTER 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  42  57  52 /   0  30  40  60
FSM   58  43  57  48 /   0  30  50  60
MLC   60  50  63  55 /   0  30  40  70
BVO   54  36  56  48 /   0  20  40  50
FYV   54  38  54  48 /   0  30  50  50
BYV   54  34  52  46 /   0  20  50  50
MKO   57  42  58  50 /   0  30  40  60
MIO   53  35  54  49 /   0  20  50  50
F10   59  44  61  53 /   0  30  40  60
HHW   61  51  63  54 /  10  40  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30



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