Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 282116
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP IS DEFINITELY IN FULL SWING...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO COME
UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG FIRE CONDITIONS...BUT JUST BARELY.
THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TOMORROW AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS WEEKEND.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...WITH
WINDS REMAINING BREEZY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WINTER WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME ACCUMULATING
ICE POTENTIAL...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A VERY COLD...BUT
SHALLOW...AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE ARCTIC FRONT ONCE IT PASSES LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING...AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44...AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AT THE SURFACE ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LIKELY TO BE BELOW FREEZING NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN AREAS WITH
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WITH SLEET OR SNOW UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SATURATION LEADING TO MORE
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. MODEL QPF TRENDS HAVE ARE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTS OF CARROLL
AND MADISON...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES TAKING THE
BRUNT. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AND WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT...MINOR POWER IMPACTS MAY BECOME A
CONCERN AS WELL. OVERALL...THIS EVENT IS LOOKING MORE PROBLEMATIC
THAN IT DID A DAY OR TWO AGO.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY UP TO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRECIPITATION SITUATION CONTINUES
TO LOOK UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY...WITH MODELS NOW FAVORING A MORE
ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. COULD FIND LITTLE REASON TO STRAY FROM
THE FAVORED BLENDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH RAIN THROUGH THAT WHOLE PERIOD IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  72  53  67 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  72  56  73 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   52  73  61  73 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   45  71  48  63 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   46  68  55  66 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   46  68  55  67 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   49  72  54  71 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   48  69  54  65 /   0   0   0  10
F10   50  73  55  71 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   51  72  58  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....22





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