Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 242317
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE UNDER ACHIEVED TODAY THANKS LARGELY TO MORE
CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO DUE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ALL
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT. WILL
LEAVE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AS IS FOR NOW AS CURRENT FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO JUST TOUCH THE 105 THRESHOLD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE THE DAYS MOST
LIKELY TO EXCEED THE THRESHOLD AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL ONLY
CARRY LOW POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
JUST TO OUR EAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND IF THE
RAIN DOES INDEED MATERIALIZE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




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