Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 272006
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
306 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
evening hours across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in
the weakly sheared and weakly capped environment. May also see an
MCS develop to our northwest make a run at the western portions
of the forecast area late Tonight.

As we move into mid-week, the upper level flow will become more
northwesterly across the central and southern plains as the upper
level ridge builds over the southwest. This will allow a cold front
to move through the region on Tuesday. While Tuesday will be dry,
the chances of showers and thunderstorms picks up on Wednesday as
an MCS that develops to the northwest of the area makes a run at
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The chances of showers and
thunderstorms will continue for the remainder of the forecast period
as aforementioned front moves back to the north and stalls across
the area and another cold front tries to move into the area on Friday
as the northwesterly flow aloft breaks down. Timing and placement of
thunderstorms will be difficult as nightly overnight MCS development
to the north may affect the area into the weekend. Diurnal activity
will occur near the frontal boundaries and any leftover outflow
boundaries.

Temperatures will be held in check during the period thanks to the
northwest flow aloft and the additional cloud cover. Stayed close
to the blended model guidance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  70  92 /  20   0   0  30
FSM   71  94  70  94 /  20   0   0  10
MLC   72  92  69  94 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   70  92  69  90 /  20   0   0  40
FYV   66  91  66  89 /  20   0   0  40
BYV   64  91  66  86 /  20   0   0  40
MKO   71  93  69  92 /  20   0   0  20
MIO   68  92  68  89 /  20   0  10  30
F10   72  91  70  92 /  20   0   0  10
HHW   74  93  69  93 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10


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