Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 231619
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATES HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR COVERAGE TRENDS OF MORNING
CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST UPDATE WILL DELAY THE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTH TX INTO SW OK
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH. RESULT
WILL BE PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...PROFILES RESULT IN SKINNY CAPE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE HOWEVER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL REMAIN THE FLOODING WHICH WILL WORSEN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  70 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  30  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  50 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  70 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  30  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  50 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  50 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  60 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  50  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07





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