Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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107
FXUS64 KTSA 251120
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
620 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect northeast OK and northwest
AR through the morning before gradually weakening and movingeast.
This should result in period of MVFR ceilings early in the
forecast with improvement to VFR by afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight, however
confidence remains low and no mention of thunder will be carried
in the forecast after this morning. MVFR ceilings likely to
return late in the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection ongoing from far NW AR to SE OK is likely to weaken
and/or exit the forecast area early this morning. Additionally,
convection across SE KS continues to sage southward with continued
redevelopment as low level jet intercepts outflow boundary. This
process is expected to wane later this morning. Finally shortwave
ridging is expected for much of the day which is expected to limit
coverage of afternoon storm development. Storms which do develop
west nearer the dryline this afternoon may again congeal and track
somewhere across the forecast tonight. Despite the lack of defined
focus, the high instability environment will support a risk of
severe weather.

The more widespread storm coverage remains forecast for Thurs -
Friday as stronger forcing overspreads the Plains. Several rounds
of severe weather are likely to be ongoing through this period
some of which are likely to impact eastern OK and northwest AR.

The flow aloft does weaken behind the departing wave however an
unstable and weakly capped airmass will remain in place. This
along with a possible weak frontal boundary along with any subtle
forcing aloft necessitates the continuation of precip chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  73  85  69 /  40  30  40  60
FSM   86  72  83  68 /  40  40  50  60
MLC   84  73  82  69 /  20  30  30  60
BVO   87  70  84  68 /  80  30  30  60
FYV   81  68  81  66 /  40  30  40  60
BYV   83  69  82  64 /  50  30  30  60
MKO   85  72  82  67 /  20  30  40  60
MIO   84  71  84  68 /  80  30  40  60
F10   85  73  82  67 /  20  30  40  60
HHW   85  73  81  68 /  20  30  50  60

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14



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