Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 162318
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
518 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Upper level low currently moving across west Texas will lift
northeast overnight and spread light rain across the area between
about 02-06z. Flight conditions will deteriorate overnight as a
result with MVFR conditions developing in all areas, with IFR
becoming likely for SE OK and NW AR early Sunday morning. Rain
will move out of the area by 12z or so, but only modest
improvement in ceilings expected through the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The rain is coming, and the higher clouds have already spread
across much of the area. There should be light rain developing in
Tulsa before midnight, and across portions of southeast Oklahoma
by early this evening. Amounts will be on the light side with the
higher accumulations across western Arkansas, where just up to a
half inch is possible.

The upper storm system responsible for tonight`s rain will move
quickly east by Sunday, but low clouds and lingering early morning
showers across Arkansas will likely hold temperatures down in the
low to mid 50s. The first part of the week will be warm, with
highs in the 60s as winds become southwest again.

The mid week storm system is evident in water vapor imagery off
the CA coast, and the extended models have come into better
agreement regarding this wave. It continues to look as though
portions of the region will get a "bonus" rain mid week with this
system, although the better chances will remain across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The arctic cold front will arrive late Thursday with a dramatic
temperature change. Highs on Friday and Saturday will struggle to
get out of the 30s. The extended models disagree about whether
there will be any precipitation with this first surge of cold air.
As it looks now, the better chances for rain or a rain/snow mix
will be just east of the area on Friday night. There is a
secondary area of precipitation that develops on Christmas Eve. If
this ends up verifying, the cold air will be sufficiently deep
enough for all snow across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
The model solutions will continue to change, and we will maintain
a dry forecast given the run to run variability. One thing that
is certain is that it will be very cold by the holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  53  37  64 / 100  10   0   0
FSM   42  54  41  65 / 100  10   0   0
MLC   43  54  40  63 /  90  10   0   0
BVO   42  51  31  61 /  90  10   0   0
FYV   40  50  38  60 / 100  20   0   0
BYV   41  53  40  60 / 100  20   0   0
MKO   42  53  39  62 / 100  10   0   0
MIO   43  50  40  61 /  90  20   0   0
F10   43  53  36  64 / 100  10   0   0
HHW   42  57  43  63 / 100  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....14


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