Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 301541 AAB
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA IS PART
OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING INHIBITION AS THEY CONTINUE EAST INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 MPH.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT MORNING FOG AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS
(KBVO)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING...EXPECT SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU. SOUTH
WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS NE OK BY MIDDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE KBVO TAF AT THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS
BY TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   86  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   87  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   87  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   83  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   83  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   86  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   87  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





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