Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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639 FXUS64 KFWD 291745 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today Through Thursday/ Showers and isolated storms have exited the region, and the forecast has trended much drier for the remainder of the afternoon and overnight period. The main exception will be the potential for isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening, generally across Central Texas and portions of East/Southeast Texas. Severe weather will be unlikely with this activity given lift will be minimal in the absence of any substantial surface boundaries. However, we can`t entirely rule out an isolated instance of quarter size hail and/or damaging wind gusts if any overzealous storms are able to develop. Our attention then turns to tomorrow morning, as northwest flow aloft will bring a complex of storms from the High Plains into North Texas. Ahead of this system, some early morning showers and perhaps a few storms may develop across the region. The complex of storms should arrive at our northwestern border between 7-9 am and will continue moving east/southeast into the afternoon, with most of this activity remaining near and north of I-20. Instability and deep layer shear will support the potential for damaging wind gusts, with a lower threat for large hail. Weak low level flow will keep the tornado threat low. Any discrete storms that develop tomorrow, especially tomorrow afternoon, will have a higher chance of producing large hail. All showers and storms are expected to exit to the east mid to late afternoon, but another storm system won`t be too far behind (more on that in the long-term discussion below). Fortunately, the cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures slightly below normal tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ /Thursday Night Onward/ Thunderstorms generated by a slow-moving shortwave over the Plains will trek east across North Texas Thursday night, some of which may pose a wind and hail threat. Activity should exit to the east around or shortly after daybreak Friday. Additional storms are expected to develop as the atmosphere destabilizes Friday afternoon within the northwest flow on the back edge of the aforementioned shortwave. It is uncertain exactly where these storms will develop, as mesoscale boundaries may be the primary focus for development. The most likely scenario at this time looks like convection may initiate just northwest of the region during peak heating, in the vicinity of a surface low associated with a remnant front. These storms would likely grow upscale as they work their way southeast through North Texas Friday evening. Damaging winds would be the main threat if a good cold pool can develop, with large hail also being possible. The tornado threat would be low, but a spin-up tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Northwest flow will remain overhead through the weekend as a mid level ridge holds strong over Mexico. A weak disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the dryline Saturday afternoon and evening. The dryline and convective initiation would be well west of the region, likely somewhere near or west of a line from Lubbock to San Angelo. These storms would not arrive until around midnight across the western-most counties, and would initially contain a threat for hail and damaging winds. Activity would then weaken during the overnight hours as it crosses the I-35 corridor. Storms may fall apart Sunday morning with the loss of the low level jet, but additional storms would then be possible east of I-35 Sunday afternoon in the vicinity of residual outflow produced by the overnight activity. The Sunday convection would dissipate fairly quickly Sunday night as a strong capping inversion develops. A few storms may be capable of downburst winds and hail, but the overall severe threat appears fairly low at this time. After a brief lull, another round of thunderstorms looks likely Monday afternoon and evening as the next shortwave dives southeast across the Southern Plains. By this point we will be into the first week of June, and it is not too surprising that the northwest flow pattern will continue to be unsettled through much of next week with an MCS or two likely surging south across the Red River. Will fine tune the timing and projected intensity of these systems this weekend or early next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the remainder of the day along with southeast winds near 10 knots or less. Isolated storms may develop across Central Texas, so a brief window of VCTS has been included in the KACT TAF late this afternoon. However, it`s possible this activity will remain well south or east of the airport. MVFR ceilings are expected early Thursday morning with scattered showers developing across the region. A complex of storms will approach from the northwest early in the morning, arriving in D10 around 15Z or so. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with this activity, with a lesser threat for large hail. Additional scattered storms are expected to develop across Central Texas throughout the day, and the hail threat may be slightly higher with this activity. Showers and storms should end from west to east between 18-20Z, with VFR ceilings gradually scattering out through the remainder of the afternoon. Outside of any storms, winds will remain out of the southeast around 10-12 knots or less. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 71 84 71 82 / 10 20 70 50 60 Waco 84 71 82 71 84 / 30 20 40 40 70 Paris 81 67 79 67 78 / 10 10 70 40 70 Denton 82 70 83 68 81 / 10 20 70 60 70 McKinney 82 70 82 68 79 / 10 20 70 50 70 Dallas 84 71 84 70 82 / 10 20 70 50 60 Terrell 83 68 82 69 81 / 20 20 70 50 70 Corsicana 85 69 84 73 84 / 30 20 60 40 70 Temple 84 71 84 72 85 / 30 20 40 40 60 Mineral Wells 82 68 84 69 82 / 10 20 70 60 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$