Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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637 FXUS64 KMAF 051554 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1054 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A cold front has made its way through much of the Permian Basin early this morning and is expected to clear the region by this afternoon. Now, when I say "cold" front, what I really mean is a northeasterly wind shift because there is a lack of a colder airmass behind this feature. Temperatures this afternoon won`t be quite as hot as yesterday, a few degrees cooler for most, but it will still be hot. The hottest temperatures remain primarily south of I-10 closest to the Rio Grande where another round of Heat Advisories are needed. The only benefit to this "cold" front is increased moisture and weak upslope flow across the higher elevations. This change correlates well with a weak disturbance rounding the subtropical high pressure currently centered near the Four Corners region. With this in mind, at least isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected from the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains to the Stockton Plateau. The lack of shear keeps everything well behaved but the hot temperatures result in high bases and limited accumulation, though these areas need all they can get in terms of rainfall. Tonight sees any showers or thunderstorms quickly subside with the loss of solar insolation. Winds gradually become more easterly to southeasterly through the overnight hours. This helps to increase moisture return back into the region but also hampers radiational cooling to a small degree. Most locations struggle to cool into the 70s with the cooler 60s confined to the higher elevations and northern extremities of the area. On Thursday a similar weather set up continues for the area. With more southeasterly flow, temperatures climb a few degrees upwards and the widespread 100s return. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for the western higher elevations, though chances are greater given better moisture aided by the southeasterly return flow. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop across much of the same areas as the day prior. Little changes from this general pattern for now as you will see in the long term period. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 An upper level high will build over the western United States centered near the Four Corners region into the weekend. The high will not be particularly strong with 500mb heights around 592dam. The weak high allows an upper low off the northwestern Mexico coast to move east and eject disturbances into the southern Rockies affecting our westernmost counties with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Hopefully some of our western counties can pick up some badly needed rainfall over the next few days. Temperatures remain pretty steady through Saturday with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s for most locations. A deepening of a low over the Great Lakes, combined with the western U.S. high weakening will allow for a cold front to enter the CWA on Sunday. This is where uncertainty enters the forecast as deterministic models continue to be more aggressive than the ensemble NBM. QPF forecasts of the big long range models suggest a pretty good chance for rain with the front on Sunday for much of the Permian Basin. Accordingly temperatures should drop noticeably with increased clouds and precipitation, not to mention weak cold air advection behind the front. Deterministic models carry the cooling into Monday with highs possibly as cool as the 80s, a nice reprieve from the heat. The NBM has begun to catch on to this for Monday though it`s still quite warm on Sunday. Suspect the front will be faster than the NBM currently shows and Sunday temps drop in the upcoming model runs but will stay with NBM for now due to the uncertainty. Some warming occurs Tuesday though temps will still be near normal. This is kind of an exciting beginning to the summer. The past several years have been very dry due to sustained westerly flow in the summer keeping very hot and dry air in place over eastern New Mexico and West Texas. This year the westerly flow seems much more transitory giving us rain chances after brief rain spells. All we can ask for is a chance. Hennig && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR continues with NE winds veering to the southeast through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 98 71 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 101 71 103 74 / 10 10 10 10 Dryden 105 75 101 76 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 102 73 102 75 / 10 10 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 93 71 95 72 / 10 10 20 10 Hobbs 97 69 101 71 / 10 10 0 10 Marfa 97 62 97 62 / 10 10 40 10 Midland Intl Airport 99 72 101 74 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 99 73 101 75 / 10 0 10 0 Wink 103 73 105 76 / 10 10 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County-Terrell. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...29