497
FXUS63 KICT 260623
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
123 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight

- Drying out Sunday and into Monday

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorm will be mid to late next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

This afternoon and evening forecast is heavily dependent on when
quality moisture (Tds >65F) arrives in the region and when the cap
breaks.  Currently, the moisture is to the south in Eastern OK and
into Arkansas. This moisture is currently moving further west into
OK as of late morning and is expected to move north into Kansas.
This is expected to continue through afternoon today and will
serving to help destabilize the atmosphere in CWA.  How fast this
moisture advection occurs this afternoon is still in question and
creates a significant amount of uncertainty for the possibility of
thunderstorms this afternoon.  To add to this uncertainty, most of
the BUFKIT soundings show a decent cap in place over much of South
Central and Southeast Kansas this afternoon through sunset. By
sunset, the dryline is expected to encroach on the CWA from the west
and provide the needed push to kick off the thunderstorm activity.
Due to the late arrival of the quality moisture, this dry line will
be rather diffuse so the initiation point/location of this
thunderstorm activity is difficult to identify.  Given this
uncertainty and the presence of a decent cap over much of the CWA,
it is looking like thunderstorm activity will not start until closer
to sunset rather than this afternoon.  That said, if an updraft is
able to break through, the mid level cap this afternoon, it will
grow up scale quickly as the mid and upper level dynamics are very
supportive of severe thunderstorms.  This will make this a low
chance but high impact possibility for this afternoon.  As sunset
approaches, this will change dramatically with a much higher
likelyhood of severe thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the CWA and enter the CWA around
sunset. By this time, the moisture will be in place and will create
conducive environment for severe thunderstorm activity.  Large,
damaging hail, damaging winds and with a few strong tornadoes are
possible during the evening.  This activity will move across the CWA
with this thunderstorm activity likely coming together into a more
linear or squall line mode as it moves into the I-135 corridor. Once
this occurs, high winds (65+ mph) are expected but large hail and an
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out.  This thunderstorm activity is
expected to push through the CWA during the overnight with Southeast
Kansas likely to see some residual thunderstorm activity Sunday
morning but this will be pushing out of the region.

Sunday the main area of showers and thunderstorms will push to the
east and north.  This activity may linger in these areas for much of
the afternoon but do not expect severe weather to linger and is
expected to push off to the east.  Monday high pressure will
dominate and keep the shower and thunderstorm activity out of the
forecast.  Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for this
time and through the end of the week.  Rain chances increase by mid
week and into end of the week.  At this time, the best chance for
rain look to be toward the end of the week with smaller chances on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Through the next 6 hours or so, additional isolated strong to
severe storms remain possible across eastern and southeast
Kansas. The main impacts appear to be to site KCNU and
surrounding areas. After around 12Z, storms should clear the
area to the east.

A period of MVFR cigs is possible as a front passes through the
area from northwest to southeast, but VFR conditions are
expected to return by mid-morning across the area.

Southerly winds early this morning will shift to northerly
throughout the day today as the front gradually passes through
the area. Wind speeds are generally around 10-20 knots at this
time and will likely stay around this range through about
00-03Z this evening before decreasing.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...JC