147
FXUS63 KICT 220527
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1227 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible across southeast KS this afternoon/evening

- A few showers/storms late tonight across central and southern KS.

- Nocturnal storms possible Thursday night, Saturday night, and
  Sunday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

As of 2 PM Tuesday afternoon, a potent, midlevel shortwave trough
was progressing through north central KS. At the surface, a low was
positioned near Omaha with a trailing cold front through Topeka and
Eureka. The environment ahead of this frontal zone is becoming
increasingly unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE analyzed. Low-
level winds have largely veered to the south-southwest immediately
ahead of the front. With westerly to southwesterly flow aloft,
hodographs are largely straight. This should foster cell splits and
an eventual upscale growth, especially east of our forecast area.
All of that to say, the overlap of strong instability and deep shear
should support large hail to golf ball size, damaging winds up to 70
mph, and brief heavy rain. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out
as well. Any storm activity should exit the area by 7 PM.

A secondary, and weaker, shortwave trough was advancing through the
central Rockies at this hour. The expectation is for showers/storms
to develop across the higher terrain later this afternoon and
gradually move eastward into portions of central KS late tonight
into Wednesday morning. No severe weather is expected.

The pattern by late week into the weekend appears to be becoming
more-favorable for nocturnal convection, especially Thursday
night/Friday morning, Saturday night/Sunday morning, and Sunday
night/Monday morning. Typically this type of nocturnal convection
will have the potential to produce damaging winds and heavy rain.
Given the upcoming holiday weekend and plethora of outdoor
activities, we encourage folks to check back through the week
and weekend for forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Scattered showers/isolated storms will move across central
Kansas through about 09-10z, though minimal impact to cigs
and vsbys expected. Another area of showers and storms will be
possible toward dawn through the morning across southeast
Kansas, though confidence on coverage is low enough to limit
mention to VCSH for now at KCNU. Light northerly component winds
through early afternoon before veering more from the southeast
by late afternoon and evening.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED